TD 10...Back Again

[Frank P]

ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

I think the change here is the fact that the NHC is now saying that upper level winds are favorable... this is certainly in ex TD 10 favor... now all that remains to be seen is if it is going to take advantage of the favorable conditions.... maybe, maybe not... but they are still discussing it, and I think its still possible for some kind of development down the road... until it evaporates and is no longer a discernable feature on the sat pixs, its something to monitor.... what happens remains to be seen... I'm not smart enough to predict one way or another...

[x-y-no]

ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

I think the change here is the fact that the NHC is now saying that upper level winds are favorable... this is certainly in ex TD 10 favor... now all that remains to be seen is if it is going to take advantage of the favorable conditions.... maybe, maybe not... but they are still discussing it, and I think its still possible for some kind of development down the road... until it evaporates and is no longer a discernable feature on the sat pixs, its something to monitor.... what happens remains to be seen... I'm not smart enough to predict one way or another...

The question is ... does this thread get to 100 pages before it either develops or dissipates?

[Ivanhater]

ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

I think the change here is the fact that the NHC is now saying that upper level winds are favorable... this is certainly in ex TD 10 favor... now all that remains to be seen is if it is going to take advantage of the favorable conditions.... maybe, maybe not... but they are still discussing it, and I think its still possible for some kind of development down the road... until it evaporates and is no longer a discernable feature on the sat pixs, its something to monitor.... what happens remains to be seen... I'm not smart enough to predict one way or another...

The question is ... does this thread get to 100 pages before it either develops or dissipates?

haaaa, i forecast it will!

[Frank P]

ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

I think the change here is the fact that the NHC is now saying that upper level winds are favorable... this is certainly in ex TD 10 favor... now all that remains to be seen is if it is going to take advantage of the favorable conditions.... maybe, maybe not... but they are still discussing it, and I think its still possible for some kind of development down the road... until it evaporates and is no longer a discernable feature on the sat pixs, its something to monitor.... what happens remains to be seen... I'm not smart enough to predict one way or another...

The question is ... does this thread get to 100 pages before it either develops or dissipates?

Yeah, you wonder what will happen when we really get a significant tropical cyclone to track, imagine a Cat 3 or higher heading towards the SE coast or GOM... all hell will break loose on this board.... hehe can't wait to see those reactions and posts, its gonna be wild.... moderators will have their hands, or more likely, their fingers full...

ya gotta love it.....

[cinlfla]

Yeah, you wonder what will happen when we really get a significant tropical cyclone to track, imagine a Cat 3 or higher heading towards the SE coast or GOM... all hell will break loose on this board.... hehe can't wait to see those reactions and posts, its gonna be wild.... moderators will have their hands, or more likely, their fingers full...

ya gotta love it..

I remember last year, this place was hoppin

[Wthrman13]

most of the rapid intensification in the GOM is usually associated with a trough interaction; thus, is not pure tropical intensification. This was even the case with Charley. PV advection enabled the last minute rapid intensification

We must remember, that the vast majority of major hurricanes in the GOM entered the GOM as a classified TC. Even Opal entered as a tropical storm

Personally, I think trough interaction as an aid for TC intensification is overrated. I think it does sometimes have an effect, but more of an indirect one in that it could create extra diffluence/divergence at upper-levels over a TC, thus allowing the internal dynamics and air/sea interaction to proceed unchecked in allowing the hurricane to rapidly intensify. I really doubt that the forcing for pressure falls and upward motion associated with upper-level troughs in the westerlies is enough in and of itself to explain the extremely rapid pressure falls seen in TC's. That said, it is true that extratropical cyclones, particularly those over the oceans at high latitudes can sometimes rapidly intensify at a rate comparable to that of tropical cyclones, but the mechanism there is extreme baroclinic instability associated with large temperature gradients, which is generally not seen in TC's (when this does happen with TC's it usually signals weakening of the TC and a transition to an intense extratropical cyclone, but still one that is in many cases weaker than the initial TC). In TC's, a positive feedback associated with latent heat flux from the surface and subsequent latent heat release in the inner-core convection is the most likely culprit for rapid pressure falls (also subsidence warming in the eye), which does not rely on baroclinic instability. Any troughs that TC's typically interact with are likely to be relatively weak compared to those in the high latitudes, and the forcing from baroclinic instability much less than from this air/sea interaction mechanism.

I'm not sure what to make of the differing heat contents in the GOM versus, say, the NW Carribbean. I must admit I don't know enough about the subject to make an informed statement, but my intuition is that as long as the TC is moving fast enough, and thus doesn't stay over it's own wake for very long, that the depth of the thermocline (and thus the heat content) probably has a secondary effect as compared to the raw SST's.

Regarding Charley, I'm currently collaborating on a numerical modeling study to try to address the issue of its rapid intensification. It's forcing me to really dig into tropical cyclone dynamics at a level I hadn't before.

[elysium]

Well, the circulation to the north looks like it's winning out after all. System as a whole appears to be drifting.

[Derek Ortt]

some good papers that address the issue of trough interaction are those by Deborah Hanley. She does a good job of addressing the idea of a good trough vs a bad trough (depends upon the amount of vertical shear vs the PV advection, which would result in a taller vortex; thus, an increase in the storm's vorticity)

I would like to see some of the results of your Charley modeling study when you finish it. Perhaps this will begin to shed some light on these processes that are not currently well known

[Wthrman13]

some good papers that address the issue of trough interaction are those by Deborah Hanley. She does a good job of addressing the idea of a good trough vs a bad trough (depends upon the amount of vertical shear vs the PV advection, which would result in a taller vortex; thus, an increase in the storm's vorticity)

I would like to see some of the results of your Charley modeling study when you finish it. Perhaps this will begin to shed some light on these processes that are not currently well known

Interesting, I'll see if I can dig up those papers. I'll be happy to share the results when finished. Right now the research is at a very preliminary stage, and one of the collaborators is in Barbados for 9 months on a Fullbright scholarship, so it's going pretty slowly!

[elysium]

It's cranking it up a notch now. Shouldn't be long.

[Sanibel]

This wave event continues to perplex and tease.

Right now it looks like a system curling up, and maybe it is, but most likely it is the synoptic causing pseudo-curvature effects. There's even a hint of an overhead High expanding a good clockwise outflow.

[southerngale]

I wish I had a $1.00 for everytime someone has said something similar to "the convection is really starting to crank up/explode now!" only for it to subside later. I'd be taking a vacation to the Caribbean.

[elysium]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be treated as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may NOT be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional organization, including storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD 10 is in full fledged regeneration and strengthening rapidly. This will unquestionably be upgraded to a tropical storm very soon; possibly in the 11 pm advisory. TD 10 will very likely become a hurricane within the next 24 hrs.

[boca]

Elysuim you said in another post you saw a circulation center 125 miles NW of Puerto Rico and then NE of PR,which is it I'm confused.

[jkt21787]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be treated as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may NOT be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional organization, including storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD 10 is in full fledged regeneration and strengthening rapidly. This will unquestionably be upgraded to a tropical storm very soon; possibly in the 11 pm advisory. TD 10 will very likely become a hurricane within the next 24 hrs.

I continue to not see this, and neither does NHC. They maintain that there is no surface circulation and pressures are not falling.

[WeatherEmperor]

Elysuim you said in another post you saw a circulation center 125 miles NW of Puerto Rico and then NE of PR,which is it I'm confused.

Its obvious that the guy is messin with all of us. In my eyes, he is about to ruin all the sympathy he got a few days ago from some members here.

<RICKY>

[elysium]

The area NE of Puerto Rico was a contender right up until the original area to the NNW of Puerto Rico opened up full bore. Nothing will compete against the northern circulation now. This area has since drifted and consolidated to the southeast very slightly. The area to the NE just got sucked up into the northern vortex in like a frame and half of imagery.

[jkt21787]

The area NE of Puerto Rico was a contender right up until the original area to the NNW of Puerto Rico opened up full bore. Nothing will compete against the northern circulation now. This area has since drifted and consolidated to the southeast very slightly. The area to the NE just got sucked up into the northern vortex in like a frame and half of imagery.

Can you please explain what you're seeing that NHC is not, especially to lead to a TS possibly by 11 and a hurricane within 24 hours?

I'm trying to be reasonable with you, but with these statements you are making it very hard.

[elysium]

Look at the outflow!!

[Stratosphere747]

Look at the outflow!!

If you could post a link to what you are referring to, it would be helpful for everyone to understand what you are talking about.