Tropical Storm Chris

[cheezyWXguy]

I hear ya JB. I was hoping they were going to come around this run..so much for that..

JB as in Joe Bastardi? hes on here?

[Stratosphere747]

Derek...

There is some ideas from a few other forecasters, that the ridge builds in a little stronger and pushes Chris more towards Hispaniola.
.
Thoughts?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is stair steping for the last 36 hours...I expect this to happen for the next 24 to 30 hours. Then more of a west trend afterwards. I think this will get to 24 north by 75 west.

[gotoman38]

shouldn't a plane be on the rwy now?

did i miss something?

FLIGHT THREE
A. 02/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0303A CYCLONE
C. 02/0500Z
D. 19.0N 64.5W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

now?

>> edited to show the POD

[senorpepr]

They will. But if they don't you just have to use your head.

What if their head doesn't work or is "stuck" somewhere?

[TS Zack]

shouldn't a plane be on the rwy now?

did i miss something?

Just took off.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Post link to that ready to use page.

[CajunMama]

Peeps...i've been trying to read about Chris in these threads but it's hard to wade through all the one liners that are unnecessary. If you want a conversation about Chris please go into chat. It's hard to get information with all the chitchat going on in the threads. It's especially hard during the day when you're at work and can only pop in for a few minutes at a time and you have to wade through alot of chitchat. We want you to post but ask yourself if your post is really really substantial to the topic. You may want to reread this http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85432

Thanks,
CM

[TheEuropean]

Seems to be in the air:

SXXX50 KNHC 020517
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 03 KNHC
0505. 1731N 06424W 01484 0108 351 006 172 130 006 01633 0000000000
0506 1730N 06422W 01486 0107 355 007 170 130 007 01634 0000000000
0506. 1729N 06420W 01486 0108 350 007 168 134 007 01634 0000000000
0507 1728N 06419W 01485 0107 336 006 168 140 006 01633 0000000000
0507. 1728N 06417W 01486 0107 339 006 170 132 006 01634 0000000000
0508 1727N 06415W 01486 0106 335 006 170 132 006 01633 0000000000
0508. 1726N 06414W 01485 0106 327 006 170 132 007 01633 0000000000
0509 1725N 06412W 01486 0107 322 006 170 134 006 01634 0000000000
0509. 1724N 06410W 01485 0107 322 006 170 136 007 01632 0000000000
0510 1724N 06409W 01486 0106 319 006 170 134 006 01633 0000000000
0510. 1723N 06407W 01485 0106 314 006 170 138 007 01633 0000000000
0511 1722N 06405W 01485 0106 311 007 168 140 007 01632 0000000000
0511. 1721N 06404W 01485 0105 313 007 168 142 008 01632 0000000000
0512 1720N 06402W 01485 0105 313 008 166 142 008 01631 0000000000
0512. 1720N 06400W 01486 0105 309 007 166 142 008 01632 0000000000
0513 1719N 06359W 01485 0104 318 008 170 138 008 01631 0000000000
0513. 1718N 06357W 01486 0104 303 008 170 138 008 01630 0000000000
0514 1717N 06355W 01486 0103 304 008 172 136 009 01630 0000000000
0514. 1716N 06354W 01485 0103 310 009 170 138 010 01629 0000000000
0515 1716N 06352W 01485 0103 308 008 172 136 009 01629 0000000000

[TheEuropean]

SXXX50 KNHC 020527
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 04 KNHC
0515. 1715N 06350W 01486 0102 300 009 174 136 009 01629 0000000000
0516 1714N 06348W 01484 0102 302 009 174 136 009 01627 0000000000
0516. 1713N 06347W 01486 0101 300 009 172 138 009 01628 0000000000
0517 1712N 06345W 01485 0102 303 008 170 140 009 01628 0000000000
0517. 1711N 06343W 01486 0101 305 009 172 138 010 01629 0000000000
0518 1711N 06342W 01485 0101 302 009 168 144 009 01627 0000000000
0518. 1710N 06340W 01485 0100 297 010 168 142 011 01626 0000000000
0519 1709N 06338W 01485 0100 295 010 170 140 010 01626 0000000000
0519. 1709N 06336W 01486 0100 291 011 168 144 012 01627 0000000000
0520 1708N 06335W 01485 0100 283 011 170 140 012 01626 0000000000
0520. 1707N 06333W 01486 0100 279 012 170 142 012 01626 0000000000
0521 1707N 06331W 01486 0099 279 012 170 142 013 01626 0000000000
0521. 1706N 06329W 01485 0099 286 013 168 140 013 01625 0000000000
0522 1706N 06327W 01486 0099 287 013 168 140 013 01626 0000000000
0522. 1705N 06325W 01486 0098 286 012 170 144 012 01625 0000000000
0523 1705N 06324W 01482 0098 285 013 170 146 013 01621 0000000000
0523. 1704N 06322W 01530 0103 290 012 170 130 012 01674 0000000000
0524 1705N 06320W 01526 0101 288 010 170 134 011 01668 0000000000
0524. 1706N 06319W 01528 0100 286 010 166 140 010 01669 0000000000
0525 1707N 06318W 01527 0100 281 010 170 134 010 01668 0000000000

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The convection is not as deep as it was...But overall the system looks better organized and much more stacked. There is also signs that a eyewall could be developing over the eastern/southeastern side. With kind of a eye like feature developing. Expect a big burst of convection over the next 12 hours. There is some dry air...Which what happen to daniel when the dry air got into there...Then this dry air maxs out....So we will have to watch this.

[gotoman38]

shouldn't a plane be on the rwy now?

did i miss something?

Just took off.

really? How can you tell? My airwaves are ...........................

[wxmann_91]

I hear ya JB. I was hoping they were going to come around this run..so much for that..

Don't want a one-liner here, but for future reference, JB is not on this board. I think that's directed at ALHurricane, who is not JB, but a NWS forecaster out of WFO Memphis.

Deep convection has decreased significantly over Chris, so I wouldn't expect recon to find anything new.

[TheEuropean]

SXXX50 KNHC 020537
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 05 KNHC
0525. 1709N 06317W 01527 0100 282 010 170 132 011 01668 0000000000
0526 1710N 06316W 01526 0100 278 010 172 128 010 01667 0000000000
0526. 1711N 06314W 01527 0100 279 012 166 138 013 01668 0000000000
0527 1712N 06313W 01528 0099 279 014 164 138 014 01668 0000000000
0527. 1713N 06312W 01530 0100 277 014 162 138 014 01671 0000000000
0528 1715N 06310W 01526 0099 271 012 164 142 013 01666 0000000000
0528. 1716N 06309W 01528 0099 273 011 166 148 011 01668 0000000000
0529 1717N 06308W 01527 0099 285 012 166 138 012 01667 0000000000
0529. 1719N 06307W 01527 0098 278 012 168 138 012 01665 0000000000
0530 1720N 06305W 01528 0098 275 011 170 146 011 01667 0000000000
0530. 1721N 06304W 01527 0097 279 012 164 150 012 01665 0000000000
0531 1723N 06303W 01528 0096 282 013 160 158 014 01665 0000000000
0531. 1724N 06301W 01528 0096 277 013 160 160 014 01665 0000000000
0532 1725N 06300W 01525 0096 279 014 164 154 014 01662 0000000000
0532. 1726N 06259W 01529 0095 278 013 164 158 014 01665 0000000000
0533 1728N 06257W 01526 0092 291 013 168 144 014 01659 0000000000
0533. 1729N 06256W 01527 0094 280 012 166 144 012 01663 0000000000
0534 1730N 06255W 01527 0095 280 012 166 138 012 01663 0000000000
0534. 1732N 06253W 01527 0095 286 011 168 140 011 01663 0000000000
0535 1733N 06252W 01528 0094 287 013 166 154 013 01664 0000000000

[mobilebay]

I hear ya JB. I was hoping they were going to come around this run..so much for that..

Don't want a one-liner here, but for future reference, JB is not on this board. I think that's directed at ALHurricane, who is not JB, but a NWS forecaster out of WFO Memphis.

Deep convection has decreased significantly over Chris, so I wouldn't expect recon to find anything new.

I do not agree. although the convection has decreased somewhat the overall cyclonic envelope has improved dramatically. As MWatkins said outflow is improving.

[TheEuropean]

I do not agree. although the convection has decreased somewhat the overall cyclonic envelope has improved dramatically. As MWatkins said outflow is improving.

Yes, system is looking much better to me. It wouldn't surprise me if recon find a stronger system...

[wxmann_91]

Yeah, I just saw that. Overall, the pressures could be a bit lower but that's it. Whether it's a hurricane or not depends on windspeed and right now I don't see that catching up until deep convection begins blossoming.

[Cyclenall]

I do not agree. although the convection has decreased somewhat the overall cyclonic envelope has improved dramatically. As MWatkins said outflow is improving.

Yes, system is looking much better to me. It wouldn't surprise me if recon find a stronger system...

I agree as well. The convection on one part of the storm may be warming but in the middle there is a huge burst of convection forming which could lead to something. I like to think it as "taking over".

[hicksta]

http://media.putfile.com/Tropical-Storm-Chris

chcek that out

[TheEuropean]

SXXX50 KNHC 020547
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 06 KNHC
0535. 1735N 06251W 01526 0092 283 014 164 158 015 01659 0000000000
0536 1736N 06251W 01527 0091 266 013 166 160 013 01659 0000000000
0536. 1738N 06250W 01526 0091 265 012 162 162 012 01658 0000000000
0537 1739N 06249W 01529 0090 266 012 164 160 012 01661 0000000000
0537. 1741N 06248W 01527 0090 271 013 160 160 013 01657 0000000000
0538 1743N 06247W 01528 0089 267 014 160 160 014 01657 0000000000
0538. 1744N 06247W 01528 0088 267 014 162 150 015 01656 0000000000
0539 1746N 06246W 01527 0087 275 015 166 144 015 01655 0000000000
0539. 1748N 06245W 01527 0086 281 014 164 152 014 01654 0000000000
0540 1749N 06244W 01528 0087 279 015 162 160 015 01656 0000000000
0540. 1751N 06243W 01527 0086 277 014 162 156 015 01654 0000000000
0541 1752N 06243W 01527 0085 282 014 160 160 015 01654 0000000000
0541. 1754N 06242W 01527 0085 282 015 158 158 016 01653 0000000000
0542 1756N 06241W 01526 0084 287 016 158 158 017 01651 0000000000
0542. 1757N 06240W 01529 0082 290 017 160 160 017 01652 0000000000
0543 1758N 06239W 01526 0081 299 018 160 160 018 01648 0000000000
0543. 1800N 06238W 01529 0079 298 017 160 160 018 01649 0000000000
0544 1801N 06237W 01527 0078 292 015 150 150 016 01645 0000000000
0544. 1803N 06236W 01530 0076 294 014 154 154 015 01647 0000000000
0545 1804N 06234W 01525 0075 295 015 154 154 016 01641 0000000000