Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[gatorcane]

Well looking at Noel today....he has a good moisture plume to work with -- and looks like he can really get cranking soon with light upper level winds and high oceanic heat content...but

a strong Noel would more than likely get vertically-stacked and try to recurve faster...

I think Noel was wrecked so much by the mountains of Hait he is moving with the low-level flow now.....but is on the verge of getting cranking again...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Well, that can be true, but, the general movement in this case does seem to the north - there are at least two weak LLC's with a westward component at this time (that are seen in the VIS loop or on the Cuban radar loop), but, tracking those can be just as deceiving...

Maybe it's just me but I see clear WNW.

~~~~~~~~
There's really not a doubt of that at this time and the center is becoming better established by the hour.

[chadtm80]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg
~~~~~~~
Convection is increasing in all but the southern quadrant of the storm now and there is some deep convection getting ready to wrap around the center.

[ronjon]

4 PM S FL obs. Interestingly, Key West has the lowest pressure.

FLZ062-065-066-069-070-075>078-292100-
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND KEYS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PUNTA GORDA PTSUNNY 82 68 62 NE23 30.05F
FT MYERS MOSUNNY 86 66 51 NE21G31 30.00F
SOUTHWEST INTL MOSUNNY 87 64 46 E21G30 30.00F
NAPLES PTSUNNY 84 67 56 NE16G25 29.98F
MARATHON SUNNY 84 69 60 NE20G26 29.95F
KEY WEST NAS PTSUNNY 86 70 58 NE18G25 29.95F
KEY WEST INTL MOSUNNY 86 69 56 NE20 29.94F

$$
FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-292100-
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
W PALM BEACH MOSUNNY 82 67 60 E18 30.02F
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOSUNNY 82 68 62 NE20 30.00S
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 84 67 56 NE18G29 29.98F
POMPANO BEACH MOSUNNY 82 68 62 NE18G26 30.00F
PEMBROKE PINES MOSUNNY 82 69 64 NE22 30.02F
OPA LOCKA MOSUNNY 84 69 60 NE22G28 29.99F
MIAMI PTSUNNY 84 67 56 NE16G25 29.98F
MIAMI BEACH N/A 82 73 72 NE23G30 N/A
WEST KENDALL SUNNY 85 66 53 E23 29.97F
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 82 72 72 NE22 29.97F

[Blown Away]

Gotta ask, w/ the W center relocation and faster than expected forward speed, will the NHC 5pm track shift a little west? I say SFL coast will be coned again at 5pm.

[hial2]

Off topic, but just to illustrate how fast life can change...last year at this time in hurricane alley,now for tonight i'm preparing for sub freezing temperatures and widespread frost..but still a proud member of SK2 and still concerned about those in the line of fire..

[ronjon]

Gotta ask, w/ the W center relocation and faster than expected forward speed, will the NHC 5pm track shift a little west? I say SFL coast will be coned again at 5pm.

I think there is little doubt that they will shift west. Be interesting to see how far some of the models take the storm since they were initialized about 100 miles too far SE for their 12Z runs.

[Frank2]

I'll be interested to see what Max (Mayfield) has to say on http://www.click10.com at 6 p.m. (WPLG no longer has a 5 or 5:30 p.m. newscast)...

Frank

[Blown Away]

Were the models expecting Noel to be moving at 14mph at this point??

[Cyclone1]

Were the models expecting Noel to be moving at 14mph at this point??

I don't think anyone was...

Noel is still supposed to be over Haiti.

[Vortex]

very strong ridging building in along the east coast..Wouldn't be surprised to see a movement almost due west on Tuesday. Also, almost all the east coast of Florida will experience Gales...

[cycloneye]

[Bgator]

It looks likes it trying to get a better CDO formed...still disorganized, but seems to be trying to get its act together, will it succeed?

[Vortex]

Radar indicates center becoming better defined.

[Bgator]

Where is everyone?

[CrazyC83]

Recon had different signals:

Top flight-level winds were 46 kt (supporting 41 kt at the surface)

Top SFMR was 53 kt

Combining them makes an estimate of 47 kt, but will they go low or high or go for the middle? My current estimate is 45 kt.

[fci]

"Where is everyone? "

Waiting on the 5:00

[CrazyC83]

Advisory out. Slightly stronger.

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...NOEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 215
MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N...74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

NNNN