ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[ROCK]

there its chance to shoot off to the NE...see the weakness between the ridges at 60hr.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif


it might miss it and get pushed west....mighty strong high to the north moving in...

[HouTXmetro]

day 3 and shooting the channel...hmmm....seems alittle slow.....


also note the trof sitting there red river area....not digging as much? got to wait for the update.....the suspense is killing me....

Anyone else needlessly losing sleep over this like me? lol. GFS still about the same from last run?

[Stormcenter]

there its chance to shoot off to the NE...see the weakness between the ridges at 60hr.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif


it might miss it and get pushed west....mighty strong high to the north moving in...

Is this possibly a blocking high that may prevent it from moving northward?

[Wx_Warrior]

Finally in the GOM-72h

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

clips the Yucatan and enters the W/CGOM GOM....

[ROCK]

day 3 and shooting the channel...hmmm....seems alittle slow.....


also note the trof sitting there red river area....not digging as much? got to wait for the update.....the suspense is killing me....

Anyone else needlessly losing sleep over this like me? lol. GFS still about the same from last run?

alot different IMO.....

[gboudx]

day 3 and shooting the channel...hmmm....seems alittle slow.....


also note the trof sitting there red river area....not digging as much? got to wait for the update.....the suspense is killing me....

Anyone else needlessly losing sleep over this like me? lol. GFS still about the same from last run?

I'm losing sleep over the "local info" that Nederland and Wx_Warrior saw that they haven't shared with us yet.

Just kidding. But this "I know something you don't know" gets old.

[ROCK]

there its chance to shoot off to the NE...see the weakness between the ridges at 60hr.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif


it might miss it and get pushed west....mighty strong high to the north moving in...

Is this possibly a blocking high that may prevent it from moving northward?

good be...lets see if it builds in...

[Ivanhater]

90 hours..follow the vortmax..if its a stornger hurricane thats where it will go

[Wx_Warrior]

Wasn't anything secretive...more about the actual broadcast of it....

[ROCK]

day 3 and shooting the channel...hmmm....seems alittle slow.....


also note the trof sitting there red river area....not digging as much? got to wait for the update.....the suspense is killing me....

Anyone else needlessly losing sleep over this like me? lol. GFS still about the same from last run?

I'm losing sleep over the "local info" that Nederland and Wx_Warrior saw that they haven't shared with us yet.

Just kidding. But this "I know something you don't know" gets old.

I am guessing there local METS out of that area. I am sure his brother has some good connections........Sorry Coop...we still love you though......

[Wx_Warrior]

EDIT: 'hater beat me to the post

[Stormcenter]

90 hours..follow the vortmax..if its a stornger hurricane thats where it will go

Does this mean it gets picked up by the trough?

[Air Force Met]

there its chance to shoot off to the NE...see the weakness between the ridges at 60hr.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif


it might miss it and get pushed west....mighty strong high to the north moving in...

It will miss it. The big player is not the high that is currently steering it WSW...but the high that will develop over the central plains and then move east...merging with the SE US high. IT is the evolution of this ridging that will steer Gustav.

The latest run...compared to the 12z run...shows the ridging stronger and further west at 60-72 hours. It also shows Gustav further SW than the previous runs. Since 00z last night the trend has been for the GFS to move Gustav more to the west and to increase the strength of the ridge.

[gboudx]

It will miss it. The big player is not the high that is currently steering it WSW...but the high that will develop over the central plains and then move east...merging with the SE US high. IT is the evolution of this ridging that will steer Gustav.

The latest run...compared to the 12z run...shows the ridging stronger and further west at 60-72 hours. It also shows Gustav further SW than the previous runs. Since 00z last night the trend has been for the GFS to move Gustav more to the west and to increase the strength of the ridge.

Does this seem like a plausible scenario to you? What I mean, is it a solution out of left field, or certainly within the realm of possibility?

[Stormcenter]

there its chance to shoot off to the NE...see the weakness between the ridges at 60hr.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif


it might miss it and get pushed west....mighty strong high to the north moving in...

It will miss it. The big player is not the high that is currently steering it WSW...but the high that will develop over the central plains and then move east...merging with the SE US high. IT is the evolution of this ridging that will steer Gustav.

The latest run...compared to the 12z run...shows the ridging stronger and further west at 60-72 hours. It also shows Gustav further SW than the previous runs. Since 00z last night the trend has been for the GFS to move Gustav more to the west and to increase the strength of the ridge.

Where would that put the possible landfall at?

[ROCK]

takes hard north turn at 90hr....looks like Central LA....that is a killer high off to the north/ NE though.....going to plow right into that?



edit- just read AFM posts.... thanks fellow Pearlandian.....

[PTPatrick]

sheer at 102 from the SW looks pretty nasty. Storm centered just south of SE LA...the surface map seems to hint at a sheered system as well, as it shows the moisture up toward MS and the MS sound

[Ivanhater]

I dont know AFM...ridge seems weaker and further east on this run..vortmax now hitting Mobile instead of South Louisiana

[Wx_Warrior]

wow...that's nuts