ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[jinftl]

south fl firmly entrenched in cone now....more of florida overall is...should be an interesting week for sure!

actually should be an interesting night even as outer bands of gustav are on radar in south dade moving north.

Well, let's be glad that the "extrap" is not what guides us.

If it did, then the center would be 7.5 miles from me on Saturday the 6th.

So, the "latest" NHC track seems to show the start of the turn to the NW which would allow her to bypass us here in SE Fl. Unlike yesterday at this time where the turn was SW and would allow her to bypass us to the south.

What are the odds that it changes 24 hours from now??????

hmm lets see it has missed us to the south and now to the north lol only option left is to hit us

[webke]

GFS at 138 hrs. has it going to the outer banks

[capepoint]

GFS at 138 hrs. has it going to the outer banks

SHHHHHHHH!!!!!! If we ignore it, maybe it will go away!

[webke]

GFS at 138 hrs. has it going to the outer banks

SHHHHHHHH!!!!!! If we ignore it, maybe it will go away!

I sincerley hope so.

[Bocadude85]

I find it kind of hard to believe Hanna will stall in the bahamas for 3 days... I guess we will know soon as Hanna should be close to the Bahamas tomorrow night.

[Trader Ron]

GFS at 138 hrs. has it going to the outer banks

I would not put any faith in any model 5+ day's out.

[jlauderdal]

I find it kind of hard to believe Hanna will stall in the bahamas for 3 days... I guess we will know soon as Hanna should be close to the Bahamas tomorrow night.

why do you find a stall hard to beleive, stalls are rather common actually, fay stalled, frances stalled, etc.

[Blown Away]

I find it kind of hard to believe Hanna will stall in the bahamas for 3 days... I guess we will know soon as Hanna should be close to the Bahamas tomorrow night.

I agree w/ you, 24 hours is reasonable, but not 3 days. That's the difference, I think the modesl will bend back W over time. This will be a SFL, Carolinas, out to sea storm. I won't buy a landfall from Melbourne FL to Savannah.

[webke]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

She is trying to get her act together from thr looks of this.

[storms in NC]

GFS at 138 hrs. has it going to the outer banks

I would not put any faith in any model 5+ day's out.

Why? I think that they have done a good job with it so far? It has only been a few years now that they put the 5 day in. So it must be doing okay or they would have taken it out by now. Fay's 5 day had Ft Myers came close to their track if not right on. Maybe a Met would to talk about the 5day.

[webke]

GFS at 138 hrs. has it going to the outer banks

I would not put any faith in any model 5+ day's out.

Why? I think that they have done a good job with it so far? It has only been a few years now that they put the 5 day in. So it must be doing okay or they would have taken it out by now. Fay's 5 day had Ft Myers came close to their track if not right on. Maybe a Met would to talk about the 5day.

I was only making an observation not a prediction.

[jlauderdal]

GFS at 138 hrs. has it going to the outer banks

I would not put any faith in any model 5+ day's out.

Why? I think that they have done a good job with it so far? It has only been a few years now that they put the 5 day in. So it must be doing okay or they would have taken it out by now. Fay's 5 day had Ft Myers came close to their track if not right on. Maybe a Met would to talk about the 5day.

5 day has average track error of about 300 miles, nuff said about the 5 day.

[Evil Jeremy]

I see a decoupled LLC and MLC, but Hanna is getting better orginized as it slowly moves to the west.

[Philly12]

I find it kind of hard to believe Hanna will stall in the bahamas for 3 days... I guess we will know soon as Hanna should be close to the Bahamas tomorrow night.

I agree w/ you, 24 hours is reasonable, but not 3 days. That's the difference, I think the modesl will bend back W over time. This will be a SFL, Carolinas, out to sea storm. I won't buy a landfall from Melbourne FL to Savannah.

Francis's loop started 9/19 at lon 72.5 and she didnt get back to that lon until 9/24. It was more of a large wobble than a loop. These things certainly linger more than 3 days. It's certainly not out of the realm for Hanna to loiter in the Bahamas for a few days.

[jaxfladude]

:uarrow:

Derek's comment of a large anticyclone means the upper-level winds are becoming favorable for Hanna to intensify. She's been kept in check by a Upper-Level Low but that low is filling in and being replaced by the anticyclone. Also Hanna is likely to be a large cyclone as noted by Derek's comment.

Derek, are you trying to be put on my "Foe" list?
Seriously keep up the good work, and find a forecast that you agree with that shoots Hanna out to sea before she gets too nasty for anyone in the Western Atlantic....

[blp]

This thing is slowly getting better organized. For the first time in a long time we are seeing convection on the SW side. I think the ULL's influence appears to be ending.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, curved convective bands wrapping in to the center. Looks like the ULL influence is rapidly waning and taking the shear with it.

[captain east]

Do you think it now has the potential to become stronger than a TS?

[jlauderdal]

Do you think it now has the potential to become stronger than a TS?

yes

[BigA]

Do you think it now has the potential to become stronger than a TS?

Potential? Absolutely, but I couldn't be intellectually honest and give you a percentage because I honestly don't know. Waters are plenty warm; the X-factor is shear.