Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[msstateguy83]

i just saw that looking on ucar @ the 12z run of gfs, some changes, if this run is right snow could effect northern
tx... have to see what comes in later today but this could be a significant change!

edit: anyone else with better knowledge plz post if you have an opinion on this but from what iam seeing
this could be abit of a turn to the south, i know its just one run, i guess we need what tonight
show's but this could put snow south of the redriver

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just want Wichita to break the 1972 single storm snow fall record so I can tell people I remember where I was (probably watching the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race from Martinsville from my home in the suburbs of Houston) when Wichita broke their all time snow record.

[Extremeweatherguy]

New Graphic.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm hoping that FW AFD early this morning will bear some fruit:

"GRASSY SURFACES IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST MAY SEE A GLAZE OF WHITE BY SUNRISE."

We'll see - had two big March snows last year here along the Red River. While I doubt we'll see much, anything at this point would be a bonus after a winter with no snow.

[msstateguy83]

just noticed on koco.com (channel 5 out of okc) chief meteorologist rick mitchell will be holding
a weather briefing live on the major winter storm moving in at koco.com
http://www.koco.com/video/19020241/index.html thats the direct link to it
& should start around 2 pm central time.

[msstateguy83]

just currious for someone with more knowledge on this issue, looking at the
surface features, could this thing still turn pretty quickly? iam not totally knowledgeable
still learning this stuff, but my question being the warm front extending down south if
it doesnt make it back that far north will the low track along it and futher south?
sorry might sound like a dumb question lol still learning this stuff as i said but hey
you dont know unless ya ask!

[msstateguy83]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 262002
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
302 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 48HRS OR SO. INITIALLY CONCERN IS WITH SEVERE WX POTENTIAL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MULTIPLE SURFACE AND NEAR SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE VICINITY WILL ACT A FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY AND CONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE NORTH OF WHERE THE STRONGEST SFC-BASED STORMS
WILL BE... BUT WILL BE CLOSE ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
IN AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH ELEVATED HAILERS FARTHER
NORTH.

BY LATE TONIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO STRONG WINTER STORM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA VERY
LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR
SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURRING AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. WILL ALSO ADJUST WINTER
STORM WARNING/WATCHES FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST. SNOW SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO WESTERN THIRD OF AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL THIRD BY SUNSET OR JUST BEFORE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONT THROUGH FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SAT AFTN.

EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE MUCH WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THE I-44
CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF INTEREST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH... WITH THE MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST
FRIDAY... PERHAPS SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH VERY STRONG WINDS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO GET A REAL ACCURATE SNOWFALL READING... 12+ INCHES OF SNOW IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH EVEN HIGHER
DRIFTS. THE DRIFTING WILL CREATE ROADWAY PROBLEMS... ESPECIALLY
ALONG EAST-WEST ROADWAYS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THIS SNOW WILL BE
A VERY WET HEAVY SNOW AND PARTS OF THE AREA HAVE SEEN TREES BEGIN TO
LEAF OUT AND THIS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO COME DOWN AND POSSIBLE
POWER OUTAGES AS WELL.

AFTER SNOW ENDS SAT AFTN WILL STILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTHWEST HALF OF
AREA WRT TO TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT
THIS ONE LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ANOTHER LATE NEXT WEEK. MAIN
FOCUS WILL REMAIN IN SHORT-TERM WITH LITTLE
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 42 44 29 39 / 70 90 90 60
HOBART OK 39 39 28 39 / 50 80 80 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 47 51 34 43 / 30 60 40 10
GAGE OK 29 29 26 38 / 90 90 90 40
PONCA CITY OK 38 46 31 37 / 70 90 90 70
DURANT OK 55 58 36 44 / 60 70 40 40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OKZ008-013-018>020-022>026-033>036.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
OKZ004>007-009>012-014>017-021.

TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083.

&&

$$

[Ed Mahmoud]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
723 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

...CRIPPLING LATE SEASON WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE INTO THE
PANHANDLES ALLOWING SNOW TO SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. RICH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL
ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. ALONG WITH THE SNOW...STRONG WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS EARLY ON
SATURDAY.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING STORM. ANYONE CAUGHT
OUTSIDE DURING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY BECOME DISORIENTED IN
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAY NOT BE ABLE TO FIND SHELTER. TRAVEL
WILL BE DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PANHANDLES...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS IN THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR EXTREME WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND POSSIBLE POWER
OUTAGES.


OKZ001-002-TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-270500-
/O.CON.KAMA.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090328T1200Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-
OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOISE CITY...KEYES...GUYMON...DALHART...
STRATFORD...SPEARMAN...GRUVER...HARTLEY...CHANNING...DUMAS...
BORGER...VEGA...AMARILLO...PANHANDLE...WHITE DEER...HEREFORD...
CANYON...CLAUDE
723 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLES
REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL
CAUSE WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 12 INCHES COMMON. SNOW DRIFTS OF 10 TO 20 FEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW FINALLY ENDS SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. ANYONE CAUGHT OUTSIDE
DURING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME DISORIENTED AND MAY NOT
BE ABLE TO FIND SHELTER. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...WITH POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLY LASTING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE
LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER
SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

OKZ003-TXZ004-005-009-010-014-015-019-020-270500-
/O.CON.KAMA.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090328T1800Z/
BEAVER-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-GRAY-WHEELER-DONLEY-
COLLINGSWORTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAVER...FORGAN...PERRYTON...BOOKER...
HIGGINS...FOLLETT...MIAMI...CANADIAN...PAMPA...SHAMROCK...
WHEELER...CLARENDON...WELLINGTON
723 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH WILL
CAUSE WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HEAVY SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE PANHANDLES WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES COMMON. SNOW
DRIFTS OF 10 TO 20 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW AND WINDS
FINALLY END NEAR MIDDAY ON SATURDAY.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. ANYONE CAUGHT OUTSIDE
DURING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME DISORIENTED AND MAY NOT
BE ABLE TO FIND SHELTER. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...WITH POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLY LASTING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON ROADWAYS...BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IF
TRAVEL IS NECESSARY.

PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

$$

GOEHRING

[Ed Mahmoud]

Mr or Ms. Bookbinder at the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill NWS office is a man or woman I'd like to kill a keg with.

CROSS SECTION AND MODEL SOUNDING PRESENTATIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
SPECTACULAR CUTTING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MIDLEVEL
CIRCULATION. ASIDE FROM THE MINOR TIMING AND POSITION
ISSUES...VIRTUALLY EVERY MODEL INDICATES A SICK COMBINATION OF
STRONG LAYERED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND UVV COINCIDENT WITH
NEGATIVE EPV IN A STATICALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN. IN FACT...NOT ONLY DO
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MEASURES OF CSI...BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLAT UPRIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND
CORRELATED WITH AN UNBELIEVABLE COUPLED AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION
COMPONENT. DID NOT YET ADVERTISE THUNDERSNOW...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD
APPEARS GREATER WITH EVERY MODEL PERUSAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN
CONCERNING LIMITATION FOR EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL WOULD BE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES PRIOR TO AND WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND. AND ALTHOUGH
PARTIAL THICKNESS METHOD INDICATE NOT ENTIRELY SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT...ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF SUCH A
DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROWAL AXIS AND
DYNAMIC DIABATIC COOLING SUGGEST HEAVY WET SNOW FOR MUCH...IF NOT
THE ENTIRETY OF THE EVENT. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM
WATCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
OMINOUSLY HINTING AT LOCALIZED 10+ INCH ACCUMULATIONS. WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE AT THE 4-8 INCH AND LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNT RANGE.

[msstateguy83]

it appears this system could be moving much slower and that it will track further south with
the low tracking somewhere near or just s of denton,tx later on today.... should see heavyer
amounts closer to the redriver now.... gary england well respected chief meteorologist
at kwtv has been saying as much as even 2 or so well into sern oklahoma, that he thinks
its going to be 'one of the most impressive systems he has ever seen' thats says alot
he has been at kwtv like 35 or so yrs as the chief meteorologist!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow...



3-6" line pushed much further south with a Winter Storm Warning now in effect all the way to Norman and a Blizzard warning in effect into the NW counties of the Oklahoma news viewing area. Just 1-1.5 hours away in Watonga they are under the blizzard warning! Crazy!

[Extremeweatherguy]

They are showing some crazy footage on the local news this morning out of Buffalo, OK. Winds are whipping like crazy with snow/ice flying and a power pole looks like it could snap at any time.

[msstateguy83]

iam in wichita falls i think i posted b4, but the front appears to be hauling! this could majorly alter snow amounts, majority of okc stations said it would be 5 pm or so b4 snow started today, look for that to change.... front just moved thru childress and heading into the vernon area appears now in central ok its 47 in elreno and close to freezing in weatherford!.... look out this could be big no, well an even bigger event! =)

[Ed Mahmoud]

They are showing some crazy footage on the local news this morning out of Buffalo, OK. Winds are whipping like crazy with snow/ice flying and a power pole looks like it could snap at any time.

Buffalo, OK had that cool tornado footage the same day as the Greensburg, KS tornado IIRC.


Must be a special place to live.


US 287 and US 87 closed near Dumas, TX because of snow and blowing snow. US 287 is a multilane highway everywhere I have been on it.

[srainhoutx]

Roads that are now closed out of Amarillo WFO...

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 0emergency

The big Winter Weather story today/tomorrow in TX, OK and KS will be the "possibility" of a Historic Blizzard. Many roads in the Panhandle are already closed. I-40 from Amarillo W to NM border along with Highway 287 from Amarillo NW to Dumas are closed as of this hour. Many other road closures will follow. Air travel into the TX Panhandle and many locations in OK may cease as well. The Upper Low is tracking ESE from Albuquerque and will pass somewhere near Lubbock and track near the Red River into AR. Winds near 40 mph, with gusts to 50+ mph will occur along the track of the storm. Snowfall will be very difficult to measure due to the winds, but amount greater than 15-20 inches can be expected where the deformation zone and even some convective thundersnow occurs. For those that follow weather events, this may be one of the most dynamic storm systems we have seen in many years. You can click on the link below to any of the WFO's to follow the progress of this event.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nat_hazard.php

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not much traffic on the highway in Amarillo...

[msstateguy83]

ed, what do you think about track? you seem to be one of the more knowledgeable
guys in here from what ive read on postings, nws oun seems to still be going the same
track but noting still alot of ?s remain, to me looks like 115 miles of so south of where it was suppose to track aleast from what i looked over earlyer this am, tracking it near the dfw area instead of closer to the red river... 100 miles could be a big diffrence in amounts

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not any kind of expert, but the upper low on this loop still seems to have a healthy Southward component of motion.


12Z NAM has a nice six incher for Wichita County, including the metro area of Valley View, Iowa Park and Kamay, but I personally perferred the old ETA over the new WRF, as the new version of the NAM seems snow happy to me.


But I always hold out hope.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Where is EWG? Is he snow chasing?

[Texas Snowman]

OK, it may be me wanting to get in on the action of a historic winter/spring snowstorm - perhaps the Southern Great Plains' version of the 1993 Super Storm - but it is almost starting to sound like DFW NWS is starting to lay some ground work for a forecast change this afternoon on snow accumulations.

It does look like the low is tracking south of what was expected and I would think that would have to eventually have ramifications on where/how much snow falls out of this.

Close call IMO for the Red River counties...

1004 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

.UPDATE...
EXTRAORDINARILY POWERFUL SPRING TIME UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NEW MEXICO
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS IS COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL FEATURES EVOLVING QUICKLY WITH
DEGREE OF DYNAMIC MOTIONS TAKING PLACE. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR BROWNWOOD...
WHICH IS POISED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
DRAPED OVER THE METROPLEX AND INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE --SPECIFICALLY THE RUC-- IS 3-6 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST. RUC USUALLY DOES WELL
WITH MASS FIELDS IN DYNAMIC SITUATIONS AND THEREFORE THE MODEL IS
TRUSTED TODAY. RUC PAINTS A SCENARIO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK OVER THE METROPLEX AND INTO THE PARIS REGION. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE WITH WEAK DIURNAL HEATING...BUT THE CAP WILL ERODE
AS STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WE EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ALONG
OR JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EAST OF 35
BY MID AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. 0-3KM CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
MARGINAL...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM ATHENS TO GAINESVILLE WILL BECOME VERY STRONG. THIS SHEAR
COMBINED WITH LOW LCLS/WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS DISCRETE CELLS
WILL HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL OF BECOMING TORNADIC IN THIS REGION.

UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING POPS BACK TO THE WEST A COUPLE ROWS OF
COUNTIES DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WHERE BEST MIXING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SNOW FORECAST ALONG THE
RED RIVER...STILL EXPECTING JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL ADDRESS
THIS ISSUE AND POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPS MORE CLOSELY WITH
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.