ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

Model Scoreboard
West (W LA, TX, MX)
NAM
East (E LA, MS, AL, FL)
GFS
CMC

[ROCK]

no really any surprises with the GFS....now we wait on the EURO....if it flips then we are good to go. If it doesnt well we are back to square one.

GFS vs EURO...death match...

[wkwally]

Imo this is going to be a tropical storm in the next post by the NHC

[Ikester]

My boss and I are sticking to our guns as well. We've favored an northeastern solution as well for days---even though I am a Euro hugger and my boss is a GFS hugger. I made a post yesterday and i will reiterate that I think the key to the eventual track is what is going up further up stream. Notice the positive height anomalies over Greenland. The Euro shows much more ridging than does the GFS. Clearly two different solutions between the two.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

I also noticed that the GFS has tremendous ridging building in further east this run at 00z over Texas. IF a westerly solution played out, I would favor a northern Mexico/Brownsville hit versus the upper-Texas coast or SW Louisiana just strictly based off the ridging alone.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

[boca]

no really any surprises with the GFS....now we wait on the EURO....if it flips then we are good to go. If it doesnt well we are back to square one.

GFS vs EURO...death match...

Yes you nailed it back to square one.I don't think the Euro going to flip flop may the best model win

[Aric Dunn]

Latest sat image showing another vort that developed. probably not going to stop.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231556
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 02 20120623
154900 3027N 08852W 9777 00296 0108 +254 +214 059008 009 /// /// 03
154930 3026N 08851W 9783 00289 0109 +256 +210 050010 011 /// /// 03
155000 3024N 08851W 9798 00276 0109 +260 +210 061011 014 /// /// 03
155030 3023N 08851W 9789 00281 0106 +257 +209 067012 013 /// /// 03
155100 3021N 08852W 9782 00292 0109 +256 +217 079009 011 /// /// 03
155130 3020N 08852W 9788 00285 0105 +258 +221 093012 013 /// /// 03
155200 3018N 08851W 9582 00458 0094 +245 +203 076016 017 /// /// 03
155230 3017N 08850W 9292 00730 0098 +216 +181 078019 020 /// /// 03
155300 3016N 08850W 8877 01118 0092 +199 +168 079023 023 /// /// 03
155330 3014N 08851W 8522 01472 0095 +171 +149 087023 024 /// /// 03
155400 3013N 08853W 8189 01811 0097 +148 +136 092023 023 /// /// 03
155430 3012N 08854W 7906 02114 0099 +133 +109 086023 023 /// /// 03
155500 3010N 08855W 7651 02391 0094 +124 +093 076021 022 /// /// 03
155530 3009N 08857W 7389 02682 0091 +111 +078 073019 020 /// /// 03
155600 3007N 08858W 7159 02948 0090 +094 +060 073020 021 /// /// 03
155630 3006N 08900W 6969 03180 0093 +087 +044 081020 020 014 000 00
155700 3004N 08901W 6943 03215 0101 +083 +042 081018 019 016 000 00
155730 3002N 08903W 6951 03201 0103 +080 +046 077018 019 016 000 00
155800 3000N 08905W 6966 03184 0100 +085 +045 079019 020 016 000 00
155830 2959N 08907W 6957 03198 0100 +085 +043 082020 020 015 000 00
$$
;

[Hurricane Andrew]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Dave]

AF 302 enroute to 96L now...

000
URNT15 KNHC 231556
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 02 20120623
154900 3027N 08852W 9777 00296 0108 +254 +214 059008 009 /// /// 03
154930 3026N 08851W 9783 00289 0109 +256 +210 050010 011 /// /// 03
155000 3024N 08851W 9798 00276 0109 +260 +210 061011 014 /// /// 03
155030 3023N 08851W 9789 00281 0106 +257 +209 067012 013 /// /// 03
155100 3021N 08852W 9782 00292 0109 +256 +217 079009 011 /// /// 03
155130 3020N 08852W 9788 00285 0105 +258 +221 093012 013 /// /// 03
155200 3018N 08851W 9582 00458 0094 +245 +203 076016 017 /// /// 03
155230 3017N 08850W 9292 00730 0098 +216 +181 078019 020 /// /// 03
155300 3016N 08850W 8877 01118 0092 +199 +168 079023 023 /// /// 03
155330 3014N 08851W 8522 01472 0095 +171 +149 087023 024 /// /// 03
155400 3013N 08853W 8189 01811 0097 +148 +136 092023 023 /// /// 03
155430 3012N 08854W 7906 02114 0099 +133 +109 086023 023 /// /// 03
155500 3010N 08855W 7651 02391 0094 +124 +093 076021 022 /// /// 03
155530 3009N 08857W 7389 02682 0091 +111 +078 073019 020 /// /// 03
155600 3007N 08858W 7159 02948 0090 +094 +060 073020 021 /// /// 03
155630 3006N 08900W 6969 03180 0093 +087 +044 081020 020 014 000 00
155700 3004N 08901W 6943 03215 0101 +083 +042 081018 019 016 000 00
155730 3002N 08903W 6951 03201 0103 +080 +046 077018 019 016 000 00
155800 3000N 08905W 6966 03184 0100 +085 +045 079019 020 016 000 00
155830 2959N 08907W 6957 03198 0100 +085 +043 082020 020 015 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Plane has departed. Let's see what is finds.

[Hurricane Andrew]

RECON on it's way.

[Rgv20]

My boss and I are sticking to our guns as well. We've favored an northeastern solution as well for days---even though I am a Euro hugger and my boss is a GFS hugger. I made a post yesterday and i will reiterate that I think the key to the eventual track is what is going up further up stream. Notice the positive height anomalies over Greenland. The Euro shows much more ridging than does the GFS. Clearly two different solutions between the two.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

I also noticed that the GFS has tremendous ridging building in further east this run at 00z over Texas. IF a westerly solution played out, I would favor a northern Mexico/Brownsville hit versus the upper-Texas coast or SW Louisiana just strictly based off the ridging alone.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

Yeah if the GFS were to flip on its track it looks like it will head to the NE Mexican coast as it will be moving WSW across the Western Gulf. IMO I dont buy the Eastern scenario but either way models feeling are going to be hurt! lol

[SunnyThoughts]

Imo this is going to be a tropical storm in the next post by the NHC

Yes, I agree with you on that. I think they will wait for Recon, which should be headed out in the next few minutes. At least we will know the wind speeds for sure. I sure hope this thing doesn't stall out there and sit and pump water into the coast for days on end.

[ROCK]

should be a short trip....

[tropicwatch]

Plane has departed. Let's see what is finds.

Its a little early. Wish commercial airlines were so prompt.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +72


12z GFS +84


12z GFS +96

[Dave]

Please no transmitter problems today....

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231606
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 03 20120623
155900 2957N 08908W 6955 03198 0091 +086 +046 083019 019 016 000 00
155930 2955N 08910W 6951 03192 0077 +091 +048 083019 019 017 000 00
160000 2953N 08912W 6957 03193 0096 +083 +048 087020 020 017 000 00
160030 2951N 08914W 6955 03195 0094 +085 +045 082018 020 019 000 00
160100 2949N 08915W 6957 03193 0094 +085 +038 077017 018 026 003 00
160130 2948N 08917W 6958 03194 0096 +085 +038 078017 018 021 000 03
160200 2946N 08919W 6958 03194 0094 +088 +037 079018 018 021 000 00
160230 2944N 08921W 6957 03194 0091 +088 +043 079018 018 019 000 00
160300 2942N 08922W 6958 03193 0087 +090 +045 081018 018 020 000 00
160330 2940N 08924W 6957 03195 0093 +089 +044 079018 018 029 000 03
160400 2939N 08926W 6957 03195 0094 +087 +045 077018 018 /// /// 03
160430 2937N 08928W 6947 03204 0091 +085 +049 083019 019 /// /// 03
160500 2934N 08927W 6961 03188 0094 +085 +051 085019 019 /// /// 03
160530 2932N 08926W 6955 03194 0092 +086 +045 083019 019 /// /// 03
160600 2930N 08926W 6959 03190 0091 +085 +052 077019 020 /// /// 03
160630 2928N 08925W 6954 03196 0090 +085 +069 073020 021 /// /// 03
160700 2925N 08926W 6955 03195 0088 +089 +060 077020 021 /// /// 03
160730 2923N 08925W 6957 03192 0086 +089 +053 084019 020 /// /// 03
160800 2921N 08925W 6957 03190 0088 +088 +054 085018 018 /// /// 03
160830 2919N 08924W 6957 03190 0087 +087 +058 085019 019 /// /// 03
$$
;

EDIT: Dave, do you want to handle the obs?

EDIT: Just saw you post them. Ill let you take over, I can cover for you later if you need to go or something.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231606
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 03 20120623
155900 2957N 08908W 6955 03198 0091 +086 +046 083019 019 016 000 00
155930 2955N 08910W 6951 03192 0077 +091 +048 083019 019 017 000 00
160000 2953N 08912W 6957 03193 0096 +083 +048 087020 020 017 000 00
160030 2951N 08914W 6955 03195 0094 +085 +045 082018 020 019 000 00
160100 2949N 08915W 6957 03193 0094 +085 +038 077017 018 026 003 00
160130 2948N 08917W 6958 03194 0096 +085 +038 078017 018 021 000 03
160200 2946N 08919W 6958 03194 0094 +088 +037 079018 018 021 000 00
160230 2944N 08921W 6957 03194 0091 +088 +043 079018 018 019 000 00
160300 2942N 08922W 6958 03193 0087 +090 +045 081018 018 020 000 00
160330 2940N 08924W 6957 03195 0093 +089 +044 079018 018 029 000 03
160400 2939N 08926W 6957 03195 0094 +087 +045 077018 018 /// /// 03
160430 2937N 08928W 6947 03204 0091 +085 +049 083019 019 /// /// 03
160500 2934N 08927W 6961 03188 0094 +085 +051 085019 019 /// /// 03
160530 2932N 08926W 6955 03194 0092 +086 +045 083019 019 /// /// 03
160600 2930N 08926W 6959 03190 0091 +085 +052 077019 020 /// /// 03
160630 2928N 08925W 6954 03196 0090 +085 +069 073020 021 /// /// 03
160700 2925N 08926W 6955 03195 0088 +089 +060 077020 021 /// /// 03
160730 2923N 08925W 6957 03192 0086 +089 +053 084019 020 /// /// 03
160800 2921N 08925W 6957 03190 0088 +088 +054 085018 018 /// /// 03
160830 2919N 08924W 6957 03190 0087 +087 +058 085019 019 /// /// 03
$$

[Dave]

I can take them for awhile...also setting up graphics as well as long as GE works.

Sounds good Jeremy