Texas Spring 2019

[Ntxw]

No heat domes in sight on the long range guidance. In fact GOA low extensions will feature increased risk of rain through May. The El Nino spring pattern will continue.

[Cpv17]

No heat domes in sight on the long range guidance. In fact GOA low extensions will feature increased risk of rain through May. The El Nino spring pattern will continue.

Awesome!!

[Cpv17]

HRRR has training setting up along the 59 corridor late this afternoon into the evening hours from Houston all the way down into STX.

[lukem]

Currently sitting on the tarmac in Denver getting de-iced. Several inches of snow on the wing. Crazy for mid-May!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

No heat domes in sight on the long range guidance. In fact GOA low extensions will feature increased risk of rain through May. The El Nino spring pattern will continue.

#NEVERSUMMER

[Cpv17]

Updated SPC forecast for today. Slight risk extended further SW.

[weatherdude1108]

I just finished a jog/run this morning. The air is completely calm. After I stopped and stretched, dang gnat or mosquito buzzing around my ear. Steam emanating from my own body. I felt like I was swimming! I checked the weather station. 72 degrees with 95% humidity, ZERO breeze. Eeek.

It's WET out there!

There’s a lot of moisture in the air out there for storms to work with later today. Seems like it’s a very unstable airmass.

Yeah. You all may be more in on the action today in that part of Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Storms kick off around 7 here, then it's predicting a MCV to come through just in time for rush hour. Remember, the air analysis over Mexico is not the best, so the models will struggle

[Cpv17]

Storms kick off around 7 here, then it's predicting a MCV to come through just in time for rush hour. Remember, the air analysis over Mexico is not the best, so the models will struggle

I think the HRRR actually has a very good handle on this event. It makes a lot of sense.

[Garnetcat5]

Literally getting sick from worrying about the Brazos River.

[Cpv17]

Literally getting sick from worrying about the Brazos River.

I work in Rosenberg. That storm that hit there Tuesday was the biggest and baddest rainstorm I’ve ever experienced. I think a repeat is in the works for this evening. Basically every model now is onboard for training thunderstorms over Fort Bend County.

[CaptinCrunch]

No heat domes in sight on the long range guidance. In fact GOA low extensions will feature increased risk of rain through May. The El Nino spring pattern will continue.

Speaking of long rang guidance, this current El Nino may persist all the way thru Winter 2019/2020. If it does you need to hope for a Winter like 58-59, or 87-88 as both were cold & wet with multi inch snowfalls. What you absolutely don't wont to see is a repete of Winter 2015-16 Super El Nino.

Going back to 1950 the 3 longest El Nino stretches,

OND 2014 - AMJ 2016 (19)
ASO 1986 - JFM 1988 (18)
MAM 1957 - JJA 1958 (16) *** the JAS-SON of 58 had 0.4 before going back up to 0.5+ for OND 58' - FMA 59', making for 21 of 24 consecutive three month over laps an official El Nino. After that followed 4 consecutive years of ENSO Netural, making it the longest stretch between official El Nino or La Nina periods.

[jaguars_22]

The HRRR simulated IR looks like very heavy rain rates... You dont see much black coloring on those often...

[Cpv17]

The HRRR simulated IR looks like very heavy rain rates... You dont see much black coloring on those often...

Yep. I saw that too. Probably 4-5” per hour.

[jaguars_22]

I'm in victoria so we should get a pretty good soaking. How many rounds are we expecting? I dont see much on the models after friday?? Unless the models have poor data out of mexico

[Cpv17]

I'm in victoria so we should get a pretty good soaking. How many rounds are we expecting? I dont see much on the models after friday?? Unless the models have poor data out of mexico

I would expect around 5” in Vic through Saturday. You never know with these events though. It’s all about where the boundaries set up. Wherever they set up then those places could easily get 5-10” of rain in just a few hours. It kinda looks like the boundary wants to set up just north of you. Right now it kinda looks like Karnes City/Kenedy towards Cuero and El Campo and then the southern parts of Houston towards Beaumont is where the boundary wants to set up.

[Shoshana]

So so humid here. I keep expecting it to rain but it just keeps getting hotter and staying humid. Looking at the maps I can’t really tell what we are going to get, heavy rain at some point I guess, but these newish color coded maps confuse me still when it comes to severe weather..

[Cpv17]

Wow at the storms popping up around Kerrville!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

CAPE over 5000 for the coastal region of texas. Sheesh.

[Cpv17]

You can see where the boundary is located here. Along and south of it should be where the worst of the weather sets up.