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Hypercane_Kyle wrote:This is an incredibly weird storm. That LLC being ejected from the convection isn't actually representative of the storm's true motion, rather it appears to be another vortex in a massive, elongated gyro.
12 Jul 12:15 pm 81 77 89 S 76G87 1.75 Mist SCT014,SCT019 29.19 996.3 29.43
SueOrleans wrote:LarryWx wrote:If you had friends or relatives that live in New Orleans, would you encourage them to evacuate? I thought I just heard them saying at the new conference that they're not expecting overtopping of the levees. Is this realistic even after considering how high the Mississippi is and the very heavy rains that are expected?
Not sure if this was meant for someone specific, but I and other S2K folks are here in New Orleans with our families/friends and not evacuating. I do have friends who left or extended vacations out of town to avoid the storm. We have many streets and neighborhoods that experience minor flooding during heavy (but normal) rains. If I lived in one of those areas and had young children or other vulnerable folks in my household, I would have considered leaving, but for convenience and comfort as much as safety.
MississippiWx wrote:Recon doesn’t really give any debate on this lol. It is showing that the actual low is what we see spinning. That’s where the lowest pressure is located.
LarryWx wrote:SueOrleans wrote:LarryWx wrote:If you had friends or relatives that live in New Orleans, would you encourage them to evacuate? I thought I just heard them saying at the new conference that they're not expecting overtopping of the levees. Is this realistic even after considering how high the Mississippi is and the very heavy rains that are expected?
Not sure if this was meant for someone specific, but I and other S2K folks are here in New Orleans with our families/friends and not evacuating. I do have friends who left or extended vacations out of town to avoid the storm. We have many streets and neighborhoods that experience minor flooding during heavy (but normal) rains. If I lived in one of those areas and had young children or other vulnerable folks in my household, I would have considered leaving, but for convenience and comfort as much as safety.
Sue,
Thanks very much for your reply. So, it sounds like you're saying the flooding will not be anything near as bad as Katrina. I was overly worried because the river is already supposedly close to overflowing its banks and there could be 1-2 feet of rainfall in addition to storm surge.
Airboy wrote:Will it be a offical landfall if the LLC shooting NW makes landfall?
Airboy wrote:Will it be a offical landfall if the LLC shooting NW makes landfall?
tarheelprogrammer wrote:It looks as though Barry may peaked in intensity, which some models were showing the pressure around 995 or 993. Rain is still the biggest issue. Stay safe LA.
GCANE wrote:Time to play connect the swirls.
Obviously in a larger gyre.
Need to really look at this on Rapid Scan
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/122/PqP7Ii.png
jasons wrote:SueOrleans wrote:LarryWx wrote:If you had friends or relatives that live in New Orleans, would you encourage them to evacuate? I thought I just heard them saying at the new conference that they're not expecting overtopping of the levees. Is this realistic even after considering how high the Mississippi is and the very heavy rains that are expected?
Not sure if this was meant for someone specific, but I and other S2K folks are here in New Orleans with our families/friends and not evacuating. I do have friends who left or extended vacations out of town to avoid the storm. We have many streets and neighborhoods that experience minor flooding during heavy (but normal) rains. If I lived in one of those areas and had young children or other vulnerable folks in my household, I would have considered leaving, but for convenience and comfort as much as safety.
This is just my personal opinion: flooding events tend to be worse than forecast. For tropical systems, I always assume the worst. Based on what I’ve seen, if I lived there, I wouldn’t chance it. It’s a catastrophe that’s being prevented by a shoestring network of canals and levees. They have failed before and will fail again. With the river already at bankfull and the storm hasn’t even started yet...I’m pretty worried about New Orleans. No way I’d stay inside that bowl.
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