ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

Fred is currently over 29C SSTs, it should get an even bigger boost as it tracks west into 31C waters. If Fred doesn't run into Southern Florida we could definitely see a Hurricane heading into the Panhandle.

Fred isnt running into southern florida, might run into the keys but that wont have an effect

With the slower movement I think it could turn north earlier possibly .

[Hurricaneman]

It looks as though Fred has a few tricks yet

[SteveM]

Recon only found about 4 MB's of pressure drop so far, but the SST's are high in the area and anyone that has read about the 1935 labor day hurricane knows weak storms can surprise in a very short period of hours. Kind of spooky watching the shear diminish.

You also have to take into account that the background pressure state is pretty high.

Out of interest, what does background pressure state mean for a system?

[Blown Away]

Recon has Fred at @21.3N/75.3N.

The NHC 5pm predicted Fred to be at 22N/77W at 06z. That’s a significant SE adjustment, has to have some effect on the track??

[Nuno]

Fred is currently over 29C SSTs, it should get an even bigger boost as it tracks west into 31C waters. If Fred doesn't run into Southern Florida we could definitely see a Hurricane heading into the Panhandle.

Fred isnt running into southern florida, might run into the keys but that wont have an effect

I want to place a bet on you winning or losing your bet

I think we will see a minimal hurricane landfall in the Keys. Fred is compact, which in these hot tub waters can only help it easily strengthen. Already well ahead of schedule too when compared to what was expected by the NHC.

[ObsessedMiami]

Fred is currently over 29C SSTs, it should get an even bigger boost as it tracks west into 31C waters. If Fred doesn't run into Southern Florida we could definitely see a Hurricane heading into the Panhandle.

Fred isnt running into southern florida, might run into the keys but that wont have an effect

As of the last update the western half of the Southern Florida peninsula is in the “cone”. Can’t see how you can make that definitive statement.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon only found about 4 MB's of pressure drop so far, but the SST's are high in the area and anyone that has read about the 1935 labor day hurricane knows weak storms can surprise in a very short period of hours. Kind of spooky watching the shear diminish.

You also have to take into account that the background pressure state is pretty high.

Out of interest, what does background pressure state mean for a system?

It just means that the number can be higher in the storm center and produce weather more associated with a lower pressure.

[Cat5James]

Fred is currently over 29C SSTs, it should get an even bigger boost as it tracks west into 31C waters. If Fred doesn't run into Southern Florida we could definitely see a Hurricane heading into the Panhandle.

Fred isnt running into southern florida, might run into the keys but that wont have an effect

As of the last update the western half of the Southern Florida peninsula is in the “cone”. Can’t see how you can make that definitive statement.

Maybe hes forgetting that SW FL is part of South Florida? just a guess

[ScottNAtlanta]

So they found another center west of the first one...which doesn't look like it is closed off to me looking at the obs

[AutoPenalti]

I would think that with all that blowup there’d be a new LLC developing underneath that but I guess not

[AtlanticWind]

Craig setzer channel 4 Miami said on evening news that Fred had no chance now of being a hurricane
before reaching S Florida area.

My wife asked me if this was true.
Told her no, that there was a very small chance that it could .

Like Craig Setzer but hate blanket statements like that.
Still hope hes right.

[Sciencerocks]

[jlauderdal]

Fred is currently over 29C SSTs, it should get an even bigger boost as it tracks west into 31C waters. If Fred doesn't run into Southern Florida we could definitely see a Hurricane heading into the Panhandle.

Fred isnt running into southern florida, might run into the keys but that wont have an effect

I want to place a bet on you winning or losing your bet

I think we will see a minimal hurricane landfall in the Keys. Fred is compact, which in these hot tub waters can only help it easily strengthen. Already well ahead of schedule too when compared to what was expected by the NHC.

My bet is still in effect, i will double my 2021 s2k donation which was $100 if hurricane fred makes landfall(nhc landfall point) in dade, broward or palm beach county. This was based on the hwrf bringing a hurricane into se florida which i thought was crapola.

I encourage others to put money behind their predictions and if they lose, s2k wins.

The betting window for me is closed on Fred, the season is young so expect additional wagers against models, predictions, etc. Stay safe and dont take fred lightly.

[chaser1]

Recon only found about 4 MB's of pressure drop so far, but the SST's are high in the area and anyone that has read about the 1935 labor day hurricane knows weak storms can surprise in a very short period of hours. Kind of spooky watching the shear diminish.

You also have to take into account that the background pressure state is pretty high.

Out of interest, what does background pressure state mean for a system?

Essentially, a 1014 mb low is QUITE weak.... especially if it were embedded within an average 1016mb pressure field. Take that same 1014mb low but then assume the present pressure field is a bit higher as a result of a fairly robust area of high pressure off the SE CONUS. So, if the pressure field (or present background state) were more like 1018 mb's then you suddenly have a low pressure cell that is 4 mb lower then the average pressures around it. The strength (or depth) of the low is slightly greater as a result of the difference in pressure around it. Also, the higher the pressures to the north of the storm, the stronger the pressure gradient (winds) funneled between them.

[Evil Jeremy]

"Running into South Florida" wouldn't be the thing that makes-or-breaks a Hurricane threat to the N Gulf Coast. SFL is a swamp. We've seen before that SFL is not really an impediment if a storm is passing over us (instead of an approach going up the peninsula). This storm just went through the shredder. You think our area will do much to stop Fred's larger ambitions?

Of course right now it doesn't look like SFL will have a direct impact, though it's still in the realm of possibility. Something to keep in mind is that there will still be a heavy rain component for all of SFL. In fact, Miami-Dade County is currently projected to collect the most rain, per the last NHC advisory.

[jlauderdal]

Fred is currently over 29C SSTs, it should get an even bigger boost as it tracks west into 31C waters. If Fred doesn't run into Southern Florida we could definitely see a Hurricane heading into the Panhandle.

Fred isnt running into southern florida, might run into the keys but that wont have an effect

As of the last update the western half of the Southern Florida peninsula is in the “cone”. Can’t see how you can make that definitive statement.

Cmon, im not allowed to make predictions, everyone else is...i backed one prediction up with cash.

[SFLcane]

Getting ready for awesome discussion from Stacy in a few min.

[jlauderdal]

Fred isnt running into southern florida, might run into the keys but that wont have an effect

As of the last update the western half of the Southern Florida peninsula is in the “cone”. Can’t see how you can make that definitive statement.

Maybe hes forgetting that SW FL is part of South Florida? just a guess

My statement includes SW florida, this looks like a keys landfall to me, said it yesterday too.

[AtlanticWind]

This is like a new system in the formative stage , the center could end up jumping around some.
The slower motion makes the path more uncertain at this point I believe.

[AtlanticWind]

11 PM update soon, thinking they will not upgrade yet .