NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[kevin]

NOAA2 will reach the center of Melissa within 45 - 60 minutes. If the 3 mb/hr intensification rate has stayed the same then Melissa should be around 908 - 910 mb.

[GCANE]

Anticyclone appears to be creeping towards Melissa.
If trend continues will be the worst-case scenario for Jamaica.
Prayers for an EWRC before landfall and for the people of Jamaica.

[kevin]

NOAA2 struggling to enter Melissa, likely due to strong turbulence in the outer bands.

[GCANE]

EPAC High-TPW air, way past 110W, is pouring into Melissa.
From south Nicaragua all the way through Costa Rica and Panama.
I have never seen such a strong inflow / convergence.

[Stormgodess]

Melissa has become an historic THIRD Category 5 hurricane of the season, only 2005 has had more in one go! Also for a season thats only had 5 hurricane 4 have been atleast category 4! When you factor in that unusual break from August 28th-September 17th this will be a very strange season to look back on..In anycase this is pretty dire for Jamaica. Even if Melissa weakens 20 mph she will still become the strongest landfall on the island in recent memory, plus the fact its moving slowly just means the effects with occur for DAYS instead of hours
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4nkWpJb1/10272356.gif [/url]

And it's breaking my dang heart seeing people across the net that are on the island thinking that they will be ok if not in the path of the eye?

We've all seen alot of storms, do yall predict any safe areas on the island to actually try to relocate to? And I imagine the entire island will be without power for an extended period. All I know to suggest to people is alot of water storage and trying to locate anyone they know now while they still have internet, who may have a well with a hand pump? And collect all the canned goods they can?

This will be the strongest tropical cyclone to ever directly make landfall and impact Jamaica, and the first direct major hurricane landfall really since Gilbert in 1988:
https://i.imgur.com/qJkfxp5.png

For all intent and purposes, the island of Jamaica (and their citizens) have not experienced an event of this magnitude ever. It can be hard as a meteorologist to balance the science (particularly when I specifically study rapid intensification events) and the humanity perspective, knowing this will devastate multiple countries and countless lives.

Thank you for all you do, along with all the others working tirelessly beside you.

[Beef Stew]

Recon is really getting bounced around this run it seems.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NOAA2 has done multiple loops prior to entering Melissa's CDO... wonder if they're trying to pin down exactly where they want to make the first pass?

[cycloneye]

My best guess is they released a UAS.

[Nimbus]

Recon is really getting bounced around this run it seems.

I think they must be sampling or timing their entry through the core, its sub 920 now.
The trough looks pathetic and the NHC is calling for landfall in Jamaica as a category 5 hurricane.
Bermuda forecast with 90 mph winds won't be as bad they are built for that.

[GCANE]

Lightning has increased dramatically since last evening in both the eye and feeder band.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My guess is Melissa is around 909mb. We'll see what recon finds here in a minute.

[Beef Stew]

Should be getting the first center pass (NW-SE) from NOAA within the next 30 minutes or so. Any guesses on what they’ll find? My guess is Melissa is probably around 913 mb at this point and quickly approaching the sub 910’s. Winds 140-145 kts.

[Beef Stew]

Center pass data should be coming any minute now

[Beef Stew]

912.4 extrap

[Hypercane_Kyle]

912mb extrapolated, flight level winds 155 knots.

[Kazmit]

My guess of 912 mb was right (trust me, that was my guess even though I didn’t post it).

[Kazmit]

Probably at least 145kts now based on that pass.

[Beef Stew]

Uniform 150+ kt FL winds in all quadrants right now it seems. The next NE to SW pass should find strong enough winds to support 145 if not 150 kts.

[michelinj]

That dropsonde in the NW eyewall is pretty incredible. 159kt at the surface, with 167kt just above. Could well just be a gust that it got but even so.

[mrbagyo]

So this thing is now deeper than Irma huh