CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[cheezyWXguy]

Dean is looking better on vis now, with outflow expanding etc. but it looks really ragged on IR. Its "CDO" has half-died right now, with only the NE half showing oranges. However, with its structural organization, another new deep burst of convection over the center, I believe could send it as high as 45kts, IMO

[Brent]

Still south of Cuba... Gulf bound?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

[JPmia]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_150l.gif

150 HR

Is the heading WNW in this run? along southern coast of Cuba? It also looks like it slows down quite a bit? anyone see this? Not necessarily a threat to South Florida in this run b/c there is a huge high to the north...looks like it is stair stepping the high.

[Brent]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

Dennis?!

[skysummit]

180 hours...moving NW into the Gulf:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

174 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[Ivanhater]

in southern gulf 180 after leaving western cuba

[Wx_Warrior]

180

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_180m.gif

[destruction92]

Is it fair to call into question the accuracy of tracks from 1886? I would think so...

Okay how about this track from 1981: http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayS ... dtype=JAVA

[Sanibel]

You don't want to see where the 12z GFS run is taking Dean...


And, yes, from its current tight wrapping Dean is looking to set-up as a mean hurricane.

[Hyperstorm]

I think this system has the potential to become a very powerful hurricane over the next several days. Its current structure reminds me very much of the early stages of Hurricane Isabel which also had very slow development into a tropical depression and storm due to the east and northeasterly shear. Latest satellite imagery shows that the system is receiving less impact from the shear, so development from now on is to be expected.

I personally believe that when you have a system that has been battered by shear for days and persists, that system is prone to rapid intensification once the shear decreases. We saw that in 2003 with Isabel and could happen again with this system.

This system gives me the look of one that will take advantage of the better upper-environment ahead and high oceanic heat content near the islands. Let's hope for the best and pray for those, if any, in its path...

[Steve H.]

Taken verbatim (which I'm not going to....yet) this could be a central/western GOM storm. The GFS is now Pinging...it will probably be ponging later. Let's see if the Euro Pings at 12Z

[KFDM Meteorologist]

204 HRhttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpr ... n_204l.gif

[Brent]

Dean is looking better on vis now, with outflow expanding etc. but it looks really ragged on IR. Its "CDO" has half-died right now, with only the NE half showing oranges. However, with its structural organization, another new deep burst of convection over the center, I believe could send it as high as 45kts, IMO

The visible looks ominous... there's no going back now, this is on it's way to being our first hurricane.

[Sanibel]

I totally agree and just came on to post that same thing. That tight center with the eye in it reminds me of early strong hurricanes in formation.

[jrod]

We wont have good model runs until they use the recon to sample the atmosphere. Until then it will be a lot more flip flopping. I do find all the speculation on each model run funny. This storm is still over a weak from a possible hit on the conus and a lot will happen before that.

[Bgator]

i love how last night everyone thought recurve, and now everyone thinks Gulf...well not everyone but a lot... hahaha

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

[Sjones]

204 HRhttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpr ... n_204l.gif

Link doesn't work, please repost