Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[rockyman]

Hey....that's a decent blow up of activity toward the west. Let's see if it can continue throughout the day. I wonder how soon the GFS will show the transition to warm core. It looked like the NAM showed it in about 30 hours or so.

The 6z GFS is already showing this as borderline warm core:

[Ed Mahmoud]

BTW, in my mild disagreement with Mr. Ortt about the prudence of a recon mission today, while I mentioned the utility of issuing advisories on a Sub-TD or sub-TS in that it permitted the issuance of watches, I certainly didn't imply watches had to be issued, nor did I imply the need for a season long hurricane warning for the entire coast.


I see this type of disagreement at oil companies, between the pure scientists, the geologists, and the engineers. The engineers have to factor in things other than the pure science sometimes, and that'll bother the geologists sometimes.

Old joke about the life cycle of an oil company

Infancy - run by geologists
Maturity - run by engineers
Old Age- run by accountants and MBAs
Dying - run by the lawyers.

[k4sdi]

Geeez I bet it sounded like this in the break room at the NHC back in Proenza'a day!

[Steve]

>>I most certainly did not say Cindy was a T Storm and recommended a Hurricane Warning for that storm (had to get up from my sleep for that storm as I had worked overnight the night before running models on Cindy and Dennis)

I got your back on that one. I remember.

>>...Bob Breck

Actually Breck had the VIPIR which was outstanding for Cindy, the best model for the end game IMHO. It showed exactly what it was going to do as far as landfall (not sure if it had it coming inland and then hooking west before the recurve, but...). But he didn't downplay that one. It was storms since Cindy that caused my one time endless-defense of him to crumble into cold indifference.

System looks to be doing exactly what AFM has been telling us it would. And congratulations to the models that did the slight "V" shaped portion of the track to get the low center down to where it is in the SE Gulf. Sometimes it doesn't matter how you get there as long as you do. I'd keep stock in GFDL and the other models that had shown this over the last 24 hours. JMO

Steve

[Javlin]

Well I keep looking at 27.5N 84W looks like something is there to me?The ULL to the S looks like it has disappeared?Yet the NHC has 1007mb low symbol at the old ULL location yet pressures to N are lower avg.29.8 while S it 29.86 what gives?It is deffinately a mess and I have to agree with the Mets weak TS at best with this thing and some nice rain for us along the NGOM.

Look at the updated visible again now it's back up N geez

[Air Force Met]

Oh yes they did!!!! Bob Breck our local met certainly did and so did a few other locals. I stayed in my raised shotgun home surrounded by trees because a professional met told the viewing public it was going to be a strong thunderstorm! And we all know they were wrong. BTW, I know what warnings mean, tropical or hurricane, I lost EVERYTHING from Katrina and was again flooded by Rita, so please don't even attempt to patronize me with your warning language. You all get it wrong sometimes too! Ask the folks who went through Humberto.

That's not "the pros." Thats one guy. Probably shouldn't be listening to most TV mets anyway. Most of them (not all..we have a couple of good ones here) ae talking heads that just rattle...but don't know a lot. The pros that matter were not talking about it in such a manner.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snipped of air tasking


3. REMARKS: AN AEROSONDE WILL DEPART KEY WEST AT 21/1900Z,
OPERATE IN THE STORM AT 3,OOO FT OR BELOW AND DEPART
THE STORM BY 22/0500Z.


¿Cual esta?

[gboudx]

That's not "the pros." Thats one guy. Probably shouldn't be listening to most TV mets anyway. Most of them (not all..we have a couple of good ones here) ae talking heads that just rattle...but don't know a lot. The pros that matter were not talking about it in such a manner.

Mrs. Kahanek might not like hearing that from one of her former classmates.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Oh yes they did!!!! Bob Breck our local met certainly did and so did a few other locals. I stayed in my raised shotgun home surrounded by trees because a professional met told the viewing public it was going to be a strong thunderstorm! And we all know they were wrong. BTW, I know what warnings mean, tropical or hurricane, I lost EVERYTHING from Katrina and was again flooded by Rita, so please don't even attempt to patronize me with your warning language. You all get it wrong sometimes too! Ask the folks who went through Humberto.

That's not "the pros." Thats one guy. Probably shouldn't be listening to most TV mets anyway. Most of them (not all..we have a couple of good ones here) ae talking heads that just rattle...but don't know a lot. The pros that matter were not talking about it in such a manner.

I checked the KPRC web page, and the bios, than the MSU page- they all (but one, with a real degree from Syracuse) have journalism or broadcast degrees and a "Broadcast Meteorology" certificate, with requires 52 hours of class work, and the certificate is good enough for the AMS seal. So one of the local Houston stations has "Semi-Pro Mets", or, maybe "Para-Mets". Of course, former NHC director Dr. Neil Frank on KHOU-11, is more than a talking head or a pretty face.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Sanibel]

That west side flare-up could be a reflection of tropical strengthening.

[Epsilon_Fan]

we're getting smacked right now by a feeder band attached to this one... definately a tropical downpour

[Air Force Met]

That's not "the pros." Thats one guy. Probably shouldn't be listening to most TV mets anyway. Most of them (not all..we have a couple of good ones here) ae talking heads that just rattle...but don't know a lot. The pros that matter were not talking about it in such a manner.

Mrs. Kahanek might not like hearing that from one of her former classmates.

Wouldn't talk that way about Kris. Besides...she wasn't a classmate. She was a senior when I was a freshman...and I had a crush on her (who wouldn't, right?).

[Tireman4]

Oh yes they did!!!! Bob Breck our local met certainly did and so did a few other locals. I stayed in my raised shotgun home surrounded by trees because a professional met told the viewing public it was going to be a strong thunderstorm! And we all know they were wrong. BTW, I know what warnings mean, tropical or hurricane, I lost EVERYTHING from Katrina and was again flooded by Rita, so please don't even attempt to patronize me with your warning language. You all get it wrong sometimes too! Ask the folks who went through Humberto.

That's not "the pros." Thats one guy. Probably shouldn't be listening to most TV mets anyway. Most of them (not all..we have a couple of good ones here) ae talking heads that just rattle...but don't know a lot. The pros that matter were not talking about it in such a manner.

I checked the KPRC web page, and the bios, than the MSU page- they all (but one, with a real degree from Syracuse) have journalism or broadcast degrees and a "Broadcast Meteorology" certificate, with requires 52 hours of class work, and the certificate is good enough for the AMS seal. So one of the local Houston stations has "Semi-Pro Mets", or, maybe "Para-Mets". Of course, former NHC director Dr. Neil Frank on KHOU-11, is more than a talking head or a pretty face.

We had this discussion awhile back. Here is the link. It was quite good on what pro versus on air mean.
viewtopic.php?f=42&t=92344

[Janie2006]

Para-Mets? Well, we do have paralegals, so I suppose fair is fair.

I'm very interested in the recon mission...we should know quite a bit more following that flight. There are still too many variables at play for my liking, and we're rapidly approaching the short term forecast period (for this system) along the North Central Gulf.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tireman- thanks.


I like the title "Semi-Pro Met" or "Para-Met". Doubt the TV stations would.

[duris]

Regardless of official watches or warning, at least someone in New Orleans is aware of this and possible impact on FEMA trailers. Maybe that LA emergency preparedness guy was real and reading this board? Nah.

CITY PREPARES FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM

OFFICE OF EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS URGES TRAILER RESIDENTS TO SEEK SECURE SHELTER



NEW ORLEANS, LA (September 19, 2007) -- The City of New Orleans Department of Homeland Security Office of Emergency Preparedness (OEP) is urging residents housed in trailers to seek secure shelter in the event that the current area of low pressure off the southeast coast of Florida organizes into a tropical storm.



"We are closely monitoring the situation and, presently, the non-tropical low pressure system has slowed down considerably over the Florida peninsula and remains weak," said Colonel Terry Ebbert director of Homeland Security. "Strong winds of 20-30 knots are currently blowing along the northeast Florida coast and are being produced by the combination of the weak low near southeast Florida and a large cool high pressure system over the eastern United States. We will continue to provide updates as the situation develops."



Trailer residents are vulnerable to weather system effects and are encouraged to seek secure shelter in the form of a house, hotel or motel room, or in shelters. If a storm develops, the OEP will open shelters in conjunction with the American Red Cross.



Though the system currently poses no immediate threat, the City of New Orleans Department of Homeland Security continues to urge all citizens to have an evacuation plan, go over it ahead of time and have at least three days worth of supplies and clothing. Supplies should include food, water, batteries, prescription medications, flashlights, infant supplies and important documents, such as insurance papers, social security cards, any state issued or military identification or a birth certificate.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If a center does form anywhere, I'd guess about due West of TPA, which again would tend to suggest North Central or Northeast Gulf.


Fine beach weather at GLS if the storm stays weak enough not to get the surf riled up. Offshore wind, warm, moderately low humidity.

[Tireman4]

Tireman- thanks.


I like the title "Semi-Pro Met" or "Para-Met". Doubt the TV stations would.

It wont sell. They need sexy. Meteorologist or Chief Meteorologist makes is sound authoritative. LOL

Back to 93L. It will be interesting these next few days.