Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES DEPICTED A LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. VERY
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THIS MORNING. LATEST 23/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.87 INCHES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS BEEN RUNNING DRIER...WITH
PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED THIS MORNING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY APPROACH THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENCOMPASS THE
REGION...BECOMING EVEN DRIER BY MID WEEK...AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES TOTAL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. IN
GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR XPTD BUT MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA. MOST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO BE OVR NE PR IN VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE MORE INTERIOR PR. LLVL
WINDS SW 5-15 KT TODAY THEN VRBL ON SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 85 76 / 50 50 50 50
STT 83 83 83 83 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

November 23rd Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 23 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy and cool over northern parishes, mainly fair elsewhere.

Afternoon: Generally fair and cool especially over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair and cool.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84F)     Low: 22C (71F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:17 a.m.
 5:30 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:22 a.m.
 5:35 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:23 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE OR OVER
THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEAN TIME...WILL KEEP
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP. THEREFORE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY
WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SINCE IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY
IMPACT...HAVE PRETTY MUCH GENERALIZED THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 12Z GEFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MUCH LESS ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...BRINGING A TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES...EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR TJSJ IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
UNTIL 23/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE SW AT 5-15 KT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT BOOST IN WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG MOST NORTH FACING COASTS...AND
SOME WEST FACING SHORES OF THE PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN USVI
STARTING TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SECONDARY PEAK ON MONDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
5 TO 7 FEET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 74 86 / 50 50 50 50
STT 76 87 76 87 / 20 20 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Normal weather for this time of the year will prevail for the NE Caribbean in the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST SAT NOV 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE DISSIPATING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELITE IMAGE SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE AREA...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH TIME. ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW PROMISE
TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
AT NIGHTS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES TOTAL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY...DRIER
AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. LATEST
24/00Z GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB WILL
DROP AS LOW AS 320K BY THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
AROUND 1.4 INCHES. SOMETHING TO POINT OUT...THE GFS HAS BEEN
FORECASTING DRIER CONDITIONS LAST FEW DAYS FOR THE LOCAL
AREA...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH MODEL
INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...KEPT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST..MAINLY FOR NEXT
FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY WILL SEE A
NORMAL PATTERN...WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AS THE NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCT TAF SITES TO BE DRY THIS MORNING WITH VCSH AT
TJSJ/TIST AND CIG NR FL060-080 OVR USVI AND NORTH OF PR...GRDL DSPTG.
SHRA/TSRA TO BEGIN AGAIN OVER INTERIOR PR ABOUT NOON AND TO DRIFT
TOWARDS ALL COASTS...AIDED A BIT BY UPPER JET LATE AFT. ISOLD SHRA
ELSEWHERE. LLVL WIND BLO FL150 TO REMAIN VRBL 5-15 KT THRU SUN.


&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT BOOST IN WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG MOST NORTH FACING COASTS...AND
SOME WEST FACING SHORES OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN USVI. SWELL
HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 76 / 40 70 70 40
STT 87 83 87 83 / 20 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

November 24 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 24 2012
 
Significant Feature: Cold front across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy and cool over northern parishes, mainly fair elsewhere.

Afternoon: Generally fair and cool especially over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair and cool.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:18 a.m.
 5:30 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:23 a.m.
 5:35 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:24 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. Nice week ahead with plenty of sunshine and cooler temperatures.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEAK TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH A
JETSTREAM WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY AND
THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BUT WILL SHIFT TO
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY TO FOCUS ON
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL RETURN IN A MUCH WEAKER CONDITION ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME EAST
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BEGINNING TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY STIFLED BY THE
ENTRANCE OF DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS...BUT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RETURNS SOME SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE ONSHORE IN NORTHEAST FLOW
INTO PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. ALSO A CHANCE SHOWER MAY CROSS SAINT
CROIX. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AREA-
WIDE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR 1.8 INCHES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND THEN PLUMMET BELOW 1.5 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE VCNTY TJMZ AND TJPS
BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
TJSJ/TJBQ AND TIST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LLVL WINDS NE 5-10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 7 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR 3 OR 4 DAYS...OTHERWISE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 6 FEET IN EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. MODELS SHOW SWELL INCREASING
AGAIN MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 86 / 20 20 30 30
STT 76 87 77 88 / 30 30 20 20

[Macrocane]

A new update to the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations from the 5th cold surge of the season (and the first freeze as well): http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2290263#p2290263

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general is expected for this week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SAID...PATCHES AND BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF PASSING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH EXPECTED OVER TIST...TISX..TJSJ AND TJBQ DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TJPS AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON IN
SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...WITH NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 86 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 88 77 88 78 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

November 25th Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 25 2012
 
Significant Feature: Cold front across the western Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy and cool.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Tonight: Fair and cool.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:19 a.m.
 5:30 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:24 a.m.
 5:35 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:25 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

I like this kind of weather

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SUN NOV 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE UNTIL THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM SINKS SOUTH OVER THE
AREA...BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AND PEAKING EARLY WEDNESDAY ON THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
UNTIL IT IS SQUEEZED FARTHER WEST BY A TROUGH THAT DEEPENS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AND THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.
EXCEPT FOR MONDAY NIGHT THERE IS VERY LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BEFORE NEXT SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW WITH PATCHES OF MODEST MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EAST NORTHEAST FLOW IS INCREASING SLOWLY OVER THE
AREA AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SHOWERS ARE NOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM
SAN GERMAN TO PONCE...BUT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO PENETRATE AN
ISO-THERMAL LAYER NEAR 15 KFT UP TO NOW.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL HIGH PRESSURE AREAS MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS...THE GENERAL PATTERN OF
HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE
BOTH IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL
REMAINS UNBROKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THIS WILL OFFER A
RELATIVELY SIMILAR SUCCESSION OF MOISTURE PATCHES BRINGING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD
AFTER WEDNESDAY. THIS CAUSES THE PREVAILING WINDS TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEAST AND REDUCES THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT
OF THE LOWER LEVELS SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS AT TJMZ AND TJPS BETWEEN 25/17Z AND 25/22Z. PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ AND TIST DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LLVL WINDS NE 5-10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 6 FEET. HENCE
SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL THURSDAY IN THE
EXPOSED WATERS. SWELL RETURN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT MONTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 87 / 30 30 20 20
STT 76 87 78 87 / 30 30 20 20

[Macrocane]

Same here cycloneye , I can't remember any other November with so many cold surges one after another, yesterday even the maximum temperatures were below normal, take a look:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 17.0°C (62.6°F) Coldest since January 4 2012
Consejo Shores, Belize 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.4°C (54.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -1.6°C (29.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19.0°C (66.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 14.8°C (58.6°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 1, 2011
Los Andes, El Salvador 10.0°C (50.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 17.7°C (63.9°F) Coldest since January 29 2012
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F) COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 6 2011 (yes, almost 2 years)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 14°C (57°F) Coldest since January 6 2012
San Jose, Costa Rica 13.8°C (56.8°F) Coldest since January 29 2012
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.3°C (43.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.9°C (62.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Consejo Shores, Belize 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.8°C (64.0°F) Coldest since March 20 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 28.2°C (82.8°F) Coolest since October 22 2012
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.0°C (82.4°F) Coolest since October 22 2012
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.8°C (92.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 22.1°C (71.8°F) Coolest since January 6 2012
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.3°C (57.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.3°C (75.7°F)

[Macrocane]

Weaker winds are expected in the next couple of days just to increase again on Tuesday night:

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SEAS TO 9 FT IN
PART DUE TO NE AND E SWELL FROM THE GAP WIND EVENT PERSIST
FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE EDGE OF THE WEAKENING PLUME NEAR
10N110W. WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 8 FT THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE TUE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH OF A CONTRAST WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FUNNELING DOWN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
INTRODUCE WINDS TO 30 KT BY TUE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY TO GALE
FORCE ONCE AGAIN BY TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TO
DAY INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS PERSIST IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. N TO NE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO UNTIL LATE
MON WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD
BREAK DOWN. EXPECT NE 15-20 KT WINDS ON MON NIGHT AND
TUE...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST MON NOV 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEFORE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PASSING -SHRA ACROSS THE FLYING AREA
MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THIS MORNING. LLVL
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NE 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
NORTH SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 87 74 / 30 20 10 20
STT 87 78 87 77 / 10 0 10 30

[cycloneye]

November 26 Jamaica forecast.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 26 2012
 
Significant Feature: Cold front across the western Caribbean.

Morning: Cloudy and cool with isolated showers.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with isolated showers.

Tonight: Fair and cool.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:19 a.m.
 5:30 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:24 a.m.
 5:35 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:25 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
211 PM AST MON NOV 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A DRIER AIR MASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS POLAR TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTENSIFIES.

AT LOW LEVELS...MIGRATORY HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A MODERATE
TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT
PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY SOME LIMITED CONVECTION MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PASSING -SHRA ACROSS THE FLYING AREA MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI AND POSSIBLY TJSJ AFT 27/01Z. LLVL WINDS
NE 10-20 KT WITH LAND/SEA VARIATIONS AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
NORTH SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 74 86 / 30 40 30 30
STT 77 87 77 87 / 20 20 30 30

[Macrocane]

A new cold surge is expected on Wednesday but also a trough will produce some showers in Central america in the next few days:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EST MON NOV 26 2012

DISCUSSION FROM NOV 26/00UTC: THE 250 HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE DOMINATING THE BASIN TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...WHILE NORTH OF THIS AXIS A NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE GULF-CUBA/THE BAHAMAS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE
SOUTHERN STREAM IS TO ENTER MEXICO EARLY IN THE CYCLE. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...THE TROUGH IS TO DAMPEN AS IT
PULLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 72 HRS.
THE TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS TEXAS TO THE RIO BRAVO/NORTHEAST STATES OF MEXICO BY 30-36
HRS. AT 54-60 HRS THE FRONT WILL THEN STRETCH ACROSS FLORIDA-THE
GULF TO THE NORTHEAST STATES OF MEXICO...AND BY 72-84 HRS IT WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BAHAMAS-SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE TAILING END
MEANDERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO. A BUILDING POLAR RIDGE IS TO
TRAIL THIS FRONT...TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY-SOUTHEAST USA BY 60-72 HRS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
WHILE FAVORING A WIND SURGE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-CUBA TO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL
SUSTAIN PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE. THE SHEAR LINE DEVELOPS ACROSS
FLORIDA/CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY 48 HRS...INTO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS-CENTRAL CUBA TO NORTHERN HONDURAS BY 60 HRS. BY 72 HRS IT
MOVES TO THE TURKS...CROSSING JAMAICA INTO SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA...AND BY 84 HRS CROSSES HISPANIOLA TO THE MONA
PASSAGE-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

AS THE FRONT ENTERS NORTHEAST MEXICO IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY...WHILE OVER THE
BAHAMAS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM. POLAR WIND SURGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL FAVOR TOPOGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. SHEAR LINE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CUBA WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY...WHILE ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY. ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO
RICO...IN A MID LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN...THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY...WHILE
OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALSO REFLECTS AT MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...CENTERING ON A 500 HPA HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS FAVORS A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
CAP. THROUGH 24 HRS THE HIGH RELOCATES TO HAITI...WHERE IT IS TO
THEN PERSIST. THIS IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR/SUSTAIN A SUBSIDENCE CAP
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THAT IS TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO JAMAICA/EASTERN CUBA BY 36-42 HRS. THE STRONG CAP
IS TO THEN HOLD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT LOW LEVELS...A HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FAVORS A FRESH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES...WITH SHEAR LINE CONFLUENCE INITIALIZED
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THE SHEAR LINE CONFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO WANE THROUGH
30-36 HRS. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM. ALSO...UNDER INFLUENCE OF MIGRATORY HIGHS...A FRESH
EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW IS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS. AT 850
HPA THE WINDS ARE TO PEAK AT 15-20KT...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO
TRIGGER STREAMERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES INTO PUERTO
RICO...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR MOISTLY LIGHT CONVECTION.

THIS IS TO ALSO FAVOR/SUSTAIN A WIND SURGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE WINDS EARLY THIS CYCLE WILL PEAK
AT 30-35KT..AND THROUGH 72-84 HRS...AS THE HIGH PULLS AWAY...WILL
DECREASE TO 15-20KT. THE SURGING EASTERLIES WILL DRIVE A
PERTURBATION/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WEST
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS PANAMA TO
JUST WEST OF JAMAICA. THIS AXIS MOVES COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BY
30-36 HRS...AND ACROSS NICARAGUA TO GULF OF FONSECA/HONDURAS BY
42/48 HRS. AXIS THEN SPLITS...WITH BULK OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SHEARING SOUTH AND MERGING INTO THE ITCZ. MODELS...HOWEVER...SHOW
A SECONDARY VORTEX LAGGING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT MOVES
ACROSS ISLAS DE LA BAHIA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO BELIZE BY 48
HRS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLES TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. ACROSS
PANAMA TO COSTA RICA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY. ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA TO
NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND COSTA RICA/NUEVA PROVIDENCIA-SAN ANDRES
THIS IS TO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM/DAY...SIMILARLY ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS TO BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA BY 42-84 HRS.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ ENTERS THE CONTINENT JUST SOUTH OF
PANAMA...WITH A BROAD TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ANCHORING
THIS AXIS AS IT MEANDERS INLAND ACROSS THE EJE CAFETERO. THE
PERSISTENT FEATURE IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHERN/ANDEAN REGION OF COLOMBIA...TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY. ACROSS THE CAUCA AND CAUCA
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST MODELS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH 72 HRS.
IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. THE ATLANTIC ITCZ ENTERS THE CONTINENT OVER NORTHERN
GUYANA-THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS/GRENADINES. IT THEN LIES WEST
ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THE PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE IS TO
FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY THROUGH 48-60 HRS...AND LESSER AMOUNTS
LATER IN THE CYCLE.

SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)

[Macrocane]

Temperatures on November 25 2012 were still below normal temperatures in most of Central America except for Panama that was above normal:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 11.0°C (51.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.2°C (32.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18.2°C (64.8°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 9.5°C (49.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 15°C (59°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 13.9°C (57.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.3°C (41.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.6°C (63.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 27.1°C (80.8°F)
Consejo Shores, Belize 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29.0°C (84.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.8°C (83.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.3°C (63.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 21.7°C (71.1°F) Coolest since January 5 2012
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 8.4°C (47.1°F) Coldest since September 11 2012
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F) Coolest since October 25 2012

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The good weather will continue for the next few days in PR/VI and adjacent islands.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST TUE NOV 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEFORE
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES THE FA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FORESEEN...AS THE COMBINATION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT
SAID...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES AND BANDS OF MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA WILL AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA FM TIME TO TIME AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ UNTIL 27/14Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN
FM THE NE AT 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WITH NORTH SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TODAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 86 74 / 30 30 30 20
STT 87 77 87 77 / 30 30 30 20

&&

[cycloneye]

November 27 Jamaica forecast:

Local Weather News

A high pressure system now over the western Caribbean will enter the Jamaica area late this afternoon. This will result in fair and windy conditions over most parishes.

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy over hilly interior areas, mainly fair elsewhere.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:20 a.m.
 5:30 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:25 a.m.
 5:35 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:26 a.m.
 5:36 p.m
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS TROUGH PATTERN INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AS TROUGH PATTERN INTENSIFIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT LOW LEVELS...MIGRATORY HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO
TIME. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY
LIMITED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS RETURNING TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH SCT SHRA AND WILL MOVE NW OF THE AREA BY 28/12Z. MEANWHILE
MVFR CONDS CONT AT TJMZ AND TIST...BUT WILL IMPROVE BEFORE
28/02Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR MTN OBSCURATIONS
OVER PUERTO RICO AND SAINT THOMAS IN SHRA AND CIGS. LLVL WINDS
ENE-E 8-18 KT UP THROUGH 12 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LEES IN NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 86 / 30 30 30 30
STT 77 87 77 87 / 40 40 30 30