Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly good weather prevails in the NE Caribbean except for a few passing showers with fresh breezes.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST MON DEC 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY MID WEEK AND
WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVING US BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...GIVING US PERIODS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY UNDER AN EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH WILL KEEP THIS PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING AS THEY WILL LIKELY BE JUST
PASSING SHOWERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND CAUSING
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PARTICULARLY FROM
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE MARINE CONDITIONS
AS SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME HAZARDOUS.


&&

.AVIATION...ENE FLOW CARRYING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO OUT OF THE
AREA BUT A NEW BAND IS APPCHG TKPK WITH SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARND 10/12Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BUT OCNL MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR OVER PUERTO RICO. LLVL WINDS ENE 10 TO 25
KT UP TO 10 KFT...STRONGEST BTWN 2-5 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SEAS AND WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED BUT ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVER ESTIMATING THE WIND
SPEED...SO THE WIND SPEED OVER THE WATERS WAS FLAT LINED AT 20
KNOTS FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE WIND SPEED. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 7 FEET
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 20 40 40 50
STT 86 75 87 76 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

December 10 Jamaica forecast:

A small craft warning is now in effect for inshore and offshore areas due to high pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

December 10 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny and windy.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:28 a.m.
 5:33 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:33 a.m.
 5:38 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:34 a.m.
 5:39 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST MON DEC 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THU THEN BREAK
DOWN FRI AS A SRN STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL START TO WEAKEN ON THU AS A CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE WRN ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDY AND DRY WX PATTERN WILL HOLD FOR A FEW MORE
DAYS UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND AT NIGHT WITH
WARM DRY AFTERNOONS. RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
FRI AND SAT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE REGION AND AS SFC WINDS SLOW DOWN AS LOW
PRES MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLC. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
11/12Z. VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER TNCM...TKPK..AND
TIST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS
LOCAL PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. WINDS ARE FCST TO PEAK TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE THU. 09Z SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS 25% PROB OF EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE CARIB COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT AND LATEST LOCAL WRF ALSO
SHOWS WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. SO A FCST OF 20-25 KT
APPEARS A REASONABLE ONE ATTM WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON
30-KT 0.5KM GFS WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT AMZ745 OFF OF BOQUERON BAY WHERE SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION
IN WINDS DUE TO FRICTION IS LIKELY. SINCE SEAS WILL BE GENERATED
MAINLY FROM WINDS USING WAVE HEIGHTS FROM NOMOGRAM YIELDS 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS ACROSS OPEN WATERS AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS
SEAS UP TO 11 FEET. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY BELOW SCA THU AS
WINDS DIMINISH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 84 79 84 / 30 30 30 30
STT 79 80 80 80 / 20 20 30 30

[Macrocane]

A new cold front is approaching Central America, winds will increase on Wednesday night.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EST MON DEC 10 2012

DISCUSSION FROM DEC 10/00UTC: AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE CENTERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
CYCLE. TO THE NORTHWEST...A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN USA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE PERIPHERY OF MAIN TROUGH...LEADING TO AN
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF AREAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. INITIAL
TROUGH WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS BY 36 HRS TO THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ACROSS
EASTERN MEXICO. A NORTHERLY SURGE WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ LEADING TO
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM THROUGH 60 HRS.
ON DAY 03...THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE A NEW
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
GULF OF CAMPECHE. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A NEW SHEAR
LINE...WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SLOPES OF
CHIAPAS/CAMPECHE AND GUATEMALA LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG RIDGE AT
MID-LEVELS THAT WILL SUSTAIN A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND THE LEEWARD ISLES. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION THROUGH THE CYCLE. TO
THE SOUTHEAST...RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN A MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH WILL ENHANCE
UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE GUIANAS FAVORING A FEW DEEP CELLS. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE POOL TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH 36 HRS...INCREASING TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS.

OTHER REGION OF ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE EASTERN CENTRAL
AMERICA WHILE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE POOL REMAIN IN PLACE.
EXPECTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN
HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...DECREASING GRADUALLY
AFTERWARDS. ANOTHER REGION OF ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL BE THE CHOCO
IN COLOMBIA AS PANAMANIAN LOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL INCREASE
ACCUMULATIONS GRADUALLY AND LOCALLY TO 15-20MM/DAY AND LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM BY 60-84 HRS.

ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALDAMEZ...DGOA-MARN (EL SALVADOR)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)


GAP WINDS...
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SURGE SWD OVER MEXICO BEHIND A GULF OF
MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY HELP SET OFF GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH
THE CHIVELA PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING
WED NIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP 9 FT EARLY WED NIGHT
...THEN BUILD FURTHER INTO THU.

FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE ASSOCIATED
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS MID
WEEK AROUND LATE WED INTO THU. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10
FT BY LATE WED WITH THIS EVENT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 10-15 KT
WITH AN OCCASIONAL SURGE TO 15-20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED. MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THESE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING LATE WED
NIGHT.

[Macrocane]

I've updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations from the 7th event that occurred in the last week of November: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/posting.php?mode=reply&f=22&t=106879

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY THEN WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BUT START TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED QUICK
PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...SINCE THE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING.

THIS PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE LOCAL WATERS...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS ALSO WEAKEN. SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
12/02Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR FOR CIGS AT TIST...TNCM AND
TKPK. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER TNCM...TKPK..AND
TIST...TJNR...TJSJ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP THRU 18 KFT WITH
NORTH WINDS 20-40 KT UP THRU 35 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO SEAS OF UP
TO 8 FEET. THE MODELS AGAIN SEEM TO BE OVERESTIMATING THE WIND
SPEED...SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 24 KNOTS. THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE WINDS WERE NOT AS STRONG AS THE
MODEL SUGGESTED...WHICH WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AS WELL...THEREFORE
THE FORECAST WINDS WERE FLATLINED AT 21 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 30 40 40 30
STT 80 80 80 80 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

December 11 Jamaica forecast:

A High Pressure Ridge across the western Caribbean will continue to influence weather conditions across the region.

The forecast is for strong winds with rough seas to affect inshore and offshore areas of the south coast over the next day or two.

Fishers and other marine interest are urged to exercise extreme caution has wave heights could exceed nine (9) feet over offshore areas.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

December 11 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:28 a.m.
 5:33 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:33 a.m.
 5:38 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:34 a.m.
 5:39 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TEMPORARILY ON FRI
AS A SRN STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SW ATLC BUT WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG TRADES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ON THU.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE HERE TO STAY FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF INTERRUPTION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO SRN
STREAM TROF FCST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SW ATLC FRI. EXPECT TYPICAL
WINTERTIME PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE EAST
COAST FOLLOWED BY WARM DRY AFTERNOONS.

OVR THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING FOR BETTER
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...AREA BECOMES UNDER AN UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW
BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS. SFC WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN REST OF TODAY AND WED AS LOCAL PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC.
THERE COULD BE EVEN SOME LLWS TONIGHT WHERE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE
AS WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL PEAK TONIGHT IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND
GENERATE SEAS BRIEFLY UP TO 9 FT ACROSS THE CARIB COASTAL WATERS
AND MONA PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...SEAS MAINLY 6-8 FT THROUGH EARLY
THU. WINDS AND SEAS IMPROVE RAPIDLY ON THU AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 84 / 40 40 20 20
STT 80 80 80 80 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No change to the present weather pattern in the NE Caribbean of variable clouds and some fast moving showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST WED DEC 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS TUESDAY AND A MEDIUM WAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
RETREAT TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES NEXT WEEK SLOWLY EASING SOUTH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE END OF THAT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
FADE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE GULF STREAM TODAY MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30
AND 40 NORTH LATITUDE INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY A VERY LARGE AND FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE
THAT LEAVES THE CENTRAL EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND PULLS A SHEARLINE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME DIMINISHING TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CARRY PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRED DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN
ISLANDS. DURING THIS PERIOD THE USVI RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE TENTH
INCH AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO RECEIVED MORE THAN ONE
AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN. INTERESTINGLY SAN JUAN DID NOT REPORT
MEASURABLE RAIN. RADAR AT 4:30 AM AST SHOWED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND AROUND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO. IN
NEARLY EAST FLOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A DIMINISHING HIGH PRESSURE DRIVES
TRADE WINDS CARRYING PATCHES OF MOIST AND DRYER AIR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT...BUT DRY MID LAYERS RETURN
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SUCH THAT
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE AS DEEP THEREAFTER. THE WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS THE
FIRST IN THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE
LOCAL TERMINALS AS THE SHOWERS PASS BY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT FOUR DAYS WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO END EVERYWHERE ON OR BEFORE FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 83 72 / 50 50 40 20
STT 86 75 85 75 / 40 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

December 12 Jamaica forecast:

A High Pressure Ridge across the western Caribbean will continue to influence weather conditions across the region.

The forecast is for strong winds with rough seas to affect inshore and offshore areas of the south coast over the next day or two.

Fishers and other marine interest are urged to exercise extreme caution has wave heights could exceed nine (9) feet over offshore areas.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

December 12 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:29 a.m.
 5:33 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:34 a.m.
 5:38 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:35 a.m.
 5:39 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST WED DEC 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SRN STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES EAST OF 70W. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN
PREVAIL THRU MID WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK
YIELDING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TOMORROW THAN COMPARED TO TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SAT HOWEVER TIMING DOES NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE TO RESULT IN MORE AREAL CVRG OR DEEP CONVECTION
WITH TROF AXIS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY SAT.
MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE. DEEP LAYER OF
DRY AIR WILL THEN DOMINATE THE REGION THRU MID NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z GFES SHOW A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING AGAIN
OVER THE REGION. EITHER SOLUTION DOES NOT SHOW MUCH WEATHER OR
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUD AND SHWR COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFT
13/10Z...MAINLY ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND TIST/TISX. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KTS...DECREASING TO 10-15KTS AFT 13/06Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PEAKED AND EXPECT SEAS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS
AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 72 84 / 50 50 20 20
STT 75 85 75 85 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Patches of clouds and showers are moving thru the NE Caribbean today but things dry out from Friday thru the weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST THU DEC 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND PASSES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO PASS ON SATURDAY. A SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS WEAKENS
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SET TO PASS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE GREATER ANTILLES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STREAM MOVES RAPIDLY EAST
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BEGINNING SUNDAY AND IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE
NEAR 22 NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE HAS CROSSED
THROUGH SAINT THOMAS AND IS NOW ENTERING PUERTO RICO WITH
SCATTERED...BRIEF...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS THAT EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS
WERE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 23 AND 25 KNOTS SO EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. NAM AND GFS SHOWS THE OVERALL
MOISTURE PLUMMETING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH BETWEEN NOW AND
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE NAM BOTTOMS OUT LATE SATURDAY THE GFS DOES NOT
TILL SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL SHOW CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY MOISTENING UP THROUGH
THURSDAY. GFS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL SHEARLINE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTER NEXT...DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
ASSOCIATED LOW. THIS MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT. IN THE MEANTIME WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS...WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TJSJ AND
LIKELY WITH PASSING SHRA ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TKPK/TNCM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE SHRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 2SM OR LESS. SHRA ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
14/04Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND SHRA...DECREASING AFTER 13/22Z. HIGHER MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
DO NOT RETURN WITHIN THE NEXT 10 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 83 72 / 70 40 20 30
STT 85 74 85 73 / 60 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

December 13 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

A high pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean will result in mainly fair conditions over most parishes.

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

December 13 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:30 a.m.
 5:34 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:35 a.m.
 5:39 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:36 a.m.
 5:40 p.m
 
 





[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST THU DEC 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN FRI NIGHT AS SRN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES EAST OF 70W AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...S/WV TROUGH ROTATING NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF CNTRL ATLC UPPER LOW AND A MOISTURE SURGE ON THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES APPEAR TO BE THE CULPRIT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCT SHOWERS TODAY. THIS WAS WELL PREDICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS YESTERDAY. DRIER AIR IS ALREADY WORKING INTO THE BVI AND
ANEGADA PASSAGE AS SEEN ON LATEST BLENDED TPW AND CONVENTIONAL
VISIBLE IMAGERY WHICH GIVES CREDENCE TO GLOBAL MODELS OF LOWERING
PWAT OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST.

WHILE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AS TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SO EXPECT VERY
LITTLE SHRA ACTIVITY FRI-TUE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS WITH A SHEARLINE PASSAGE NEXT WED.
OVERALL...VERY DRY WX PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR NEAR SHRA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT THE FLYING AREA UNTIL 13/23Z.
THEN...ONLY ISOLD PASSING SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. LLVL WIND
WILL VEER SLIGHTLY FM THE EAST BTWN 10 TO 20 KTS AFT 14/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 83 71 82 / 20 20 0 10
STT 78 83 75 84 / 20 20 0 0

[Macrocane]

DISCUSSION FROM DEC 13/00UTC: AT UPPER LEVELS...BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE USA WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE VORTICES
REVOLVING AROUND MAIN AXIS. ONE EXTENDS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE US WHILE ANOTHER WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WAS SUSTAINING A SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO
ENTER NORTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY 24-30 HRS...TO START
WEAKENING ACROSS SONORA/CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER.
THE TROUGH IS ESTABLISHING A WEAK SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION THAT WILL
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS PEAKING THROUGH 36 HRS. ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST/WESTERN SLOPES IN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EXPECTING IN
THE 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL IN SONORA...INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY WILL LEAD TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED IN
WITH RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN SONORA.
ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE SIERRA MADRE...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED LEADING TO ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS CHIHUAHUA.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUSTAINING A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN BAHAMAS/NORTHWESTERN
CUBA/NORTHERN YUCATAN BY 24 HRS...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS-FLORIDA STRAIGHT BY 48 HRS WHEN WEAKENING. NORTHEASTERLIES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SLOPES OF GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
YET...ESTABLISHING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WEAKENING WINDS ARE
PRODUCING A RAPID DECREASE. EXPECTING HEAVIEST THROUGH 36 HRS
REACHING 05-10MM AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM...DECREASING
AFTERWARDS. A SHEAR LINE HAS FORMED AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS BY 24 HRS...TO
RAPIDLY LOSE DEFINITION AFTERWARDS. THE SHEAR LINE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE AND STIMULATE SHALLOW CONVECTION. ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA EXPECTING HEAVIEST THROUGH 36 HRS REACHING
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SHEAR LINE WILL INTERACT WITH LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ON DAY 02. EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM BY
36-60 HRS...ESPECIALLY IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY.

ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...UPPER RIDGE IS STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
AT MID-LEVELS...THE RIDGE CENTER WILL MEANDER BETWEEN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS SUSTAINING A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. AS RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD...IT WILL ALSO
INTENSIFY IN WESTERN SECTIONS/CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE CYCLE.
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE LIMITING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION LEADING TO GENERALLY SHALLOW CELLS ACROSS THE
ANTILLES. A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES HAS ORGANIZED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND PROGRESS WESTWARD TO EXTEND ACROSS
NORTHERN COLOMBIA/WEST OF JAMAICA BY 72 HRS. INVERSION ALONG
TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED A LITTLE BIT HIGHER...AT 700 HPA. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A MAXIMA IN PWAT AND AN ENHANCEMENT IN SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THIS WILL INCREASE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY BUT
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. HEAVIEST STILL EXPECTED ALONG NORTHEASTERN
COAST...YET ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS EXPECTING SIMILAR
ACCUMULATIONS. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE HAITIAN PENINSULA AND JAMAICA ON DAY 03 REACHING 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. SOME ENHANCEMENT TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

FURTHER SOUTH...TROUGH ORGANIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
INDUCING A BROAD SURFACE LOW WITH AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ORGANIZING AROUND IT. FURTHERMORE...UPPER DIVERGENCE IS BEING
FAVORED TO ITS SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN GUYANA. EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 05-10MM/DAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
THROUGH THE CYCLE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A REGION OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM BY 60-84 HRS ACROSS ESCUDO GUAYANES/NORTHERN
GUYANA.

ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA/SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...A WEAK TROUGH IN THE
EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A
POOL OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS EASTERN COSTA RICA ON DAY 02. EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO PEAK AT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. FURTHER SOUTH...THE ORGANIZING
PANAMANIAN LOW WILL SUSTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS PANAMA AND
THE CHOCO IN COLOMBIA. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...THROUGH 60
HRS...DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE...ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL
ALSO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ANDES OF COLOMBIA
INCLUDING THE EJE CAFETERO AND VALLE DEL CAUCA.

ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALDAMEZ...DGOA-MARN (EL SALVADOR)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather is expected this weekend in the NE Caribbean so enjoy it.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST FRI DEC 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL
FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH WILL PASS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN WHILE A SHORT WAVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ERODES THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SPREADS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...COOL FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN FLOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. SEVERAL FRONTS APPROACH THE AREA...ONE NEXT
THURSDAY AND ONE DURING CHRISTMAS WEEK. AT THIS TIME NEITHER IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE VISIBLE IN THE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE FUELED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIER
AIR IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHEASTERLY DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
19 DEGREES NORTH 50 DEGREES WEST. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ADVECTION OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SHOWERS WILL BE FEWER...BUT SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. THE LOW PRESSURE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST TO CROSS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BUT INSTEAD WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST. LATER IN THE WEEK
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE IN AND AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY. NEVERTHELESS
NO MAJOR EVENTS OR DEEP CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 10
DAYS AND COLD FRONTS WILL NOT REACH THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDING TO
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...ALBEIT IN SOMEWHAT WEAKER FORM.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 14/18Z. HOWEVER...SOME PASSING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF TJSJ...TJMZ...TJBQ..AND TIST
FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS AT THE SURFACE...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 82 73 / 20 10 10 10
STT 86 72 85 73 / 20 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

December 14 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

A high pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean will result in mainly fair conditions except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

December 14 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:30 a.m.
 5:34 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:35 a.m.
 5:39 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:36 a.m.
 5:40 p.m.
 
 




[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST FRI DEC 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CROSSING THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...A GOOD INFLOW OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
IS EXPECTED...MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. UPPER RIDGE
WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS FORMED DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO.

ALTHOUGH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
DURING THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED AND
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THE DOMINANT FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST CHANGING GRADUALLY
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WHILE DECREASING IN SPEED. UNDER THIS FLOW
PATTERN...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
MAKERS FORESEEN IN NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED
UNTIL 14/23Z...DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS. CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO
EXPECTED TO ALSO DECREASE AFTER 14/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 81 / 10 10 20 20
STT 73 85 74 84 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The San Juan NWS site is not working this morning and because of that,I dont have the latest forecast from them but as soon it comes back I will post the discussion. Here is the December 15 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic and trough across the central Caribbean will result in partly cloudy conditions with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy.

Afternoon: Expect partly cloudy skies with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:31 a.m.
 5:34 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:36 a.m.
 5:39 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:37 a.m.
 5:40 p.m.
 




[cycloneye]

Good aftenoon. The San Juan NWS site is back and here is this afternoon's discussion.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST SAT DEC 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MONA PASSAGE TO CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRY
ADVECTION AND STABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE USVI AND PUERTO RICO
LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION
OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY ABOVE
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TJSJ MORNING SOUNDING AS WELL AS AMDAR/MDCRS
AVIATION DATA INDICATED A STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 700MB AND 650MB...
WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A GENERALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS USVI AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
ANALYSIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA CONTINUE
TO SHOW BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS
EVERY DAY BUT WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED AND THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY...VEERING TO THE
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UNDER THIS FLOW...
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FROM TIME TO TIME...FOLLOWED
BY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN
IN NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL TAF SITES AND SHRA THRU SUN TO BE ISOLD AT
MOST. PSBL MVFR A VERY OUTSIDE CHC IN THOSE SHRA. LLVL WIND BLO
FL110 N-NNE 10-20 KT THIS MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NE
5-10.

&&

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 84 71 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 72 85 73 85 / 10 10 10 10

&&