ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#13481 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 04, 2023 7:27 pm

No disrespect to Andy Hazleton, but this event wont get to super Nino levels with this atompshere.
6 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

Dean_175
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 319
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:34 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#13482 Postby Dean_175 » Wed Jul 05, 2023 2:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:No disrespect to Andy Hazleton, but this event wont get to super Nino levels with this atompshere.


"Already super going by eastern regions" isn't a very good statement. The eastern region can be warm even during La Nina (ie. 1998) and nino3.4 is used precisely because it provides better correlation to the atmosphere due to the warmer base state. The global ENSO teleconnections in particular depend far more on what is happening in that 3.4 region than near the Galapagos and Peru. I went back and looked at every El Nino that had a trimonthly of 2.0C or higher (1965, 1972, 1982, 1997, 2015) and cannot find a single one with weaker westerly wind anomalies near the dateline than current. 2012 and 2014 were very warm in the east, and we know what happened those years. Not saying that will be the case this year (highly unlikely to be a complete bust as SSTs are warmer). AMJ came in at 0.5C and while most upcoming Ninos that had that value turned out to be strong to super, that period is still within the spring predictability barrier and correlation to peak is probably not that robust (compared to correlation between August and January). A strong peak like 1991 is hinted at by the models and is what I personally think is the most likely scenario, but atmospheric coupling was already much stronger by this time during that year. If coupling occurs after this new WWB, then the event may have a chance of becoming quite impressive. If no coupling until late summer or fall then I could see this event peaking as only a moderate. That said, if you look at the map of real SSTs rather than anomalies, it isn't exactly surprising that we aren't seeing frequent big WWBs. The warmest waters of the equatorial Pacific continue to be near Indonesia (albeit a bit to the east). By this time in 1997, with the combination of negative anomalies in the west and positive anomalies in the east, the warmest actual sea surface temperatures were displaced all the way to around 150W; hence a fairly continuous sequence of WWB extending to the end of the year. We have positive anomalies in the far west currently. While this means that there is still gas in the tank so to speak, it doesn't help move the convection eastward.
7 likes   
All posts by Dean_175 are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

zzzh
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 834
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:13 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#13483 Postby zzzh » Wed Jul 05, 2023 4:02 pm

Lol, May-June MEI came in to be 0.2. At the same time for 1997 and 2015, they were 2.4 and 1.7 respectively. The atmosphere is still far from El Nino, let alone super Nino.
2 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#13484 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 05, 2023 7:21 pm

MEI of .2 continues the trend of steady improvement considering it was -.7 as late as FM. Its not far from El Niño but yea the atmospheric coupling will generally continue to lag behind SSTs.
2 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#13485 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Jul 05, 2023 9:54 pm

Imagine if the atmosphere starts to fully cooperate by the end of the year like what happened in 2014. :lol:
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#13486 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 06, 2023 10:56 am

CFS has a WWB reaching 180 by July 21 but stops there. Shows much stronger strades over the CPAC during August.

GFS and Euro have a strong trade burst over the CPAC by July 21.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ENSO Updates

#13487 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 06, 2023 11:02 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#13488 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 06, 2023 11:56 am



GFS keeps predicting really strong CPAC trades anytime intraseasonal forcing gets over the MC and while conceptually this makes sense, they never verify at the extent modeled.
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#13489 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 06, 2023 2:01 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:


GFS keeps predicting really strong CPAC trades anytime intraseasonal forcing gets over the MC and while conceptually this makes sense, they never verify at the extent modeled.

MJO/-CCKW over the MC during the summer almost always leads to strong CPAC trades. Euro agrees with the GFS as well.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22784
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#13490 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 06, 2023 5:14 pm

The eastern regions continue to warm, while the western regions remains flat, we're seeing a lot more of the same. 3.4 may go back to 1C come Monday's update.

Image

Image
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#13491 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Jul 06, 2023 7:30 pm

Are the forecasted strong trades supposed to cool down the Nino regions? Because there had been a handful of forecasts showing strong trades particularly in the eastern Nino regions, but the temperature has been holding steady at least. Nino 1.2 has been hovering between 2.6C and 2.9C since last Spring.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2650
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ENSO Updates

#13492 Postby USTropics » Thu Jul 06, 2023 8:22 pm

dexterlabio wrote:Are the forecasted strong trades supposed to cool down the Nino regions? Because there had been a handful of forecasts showing strong trades particularly in the eastern Nino regions, but the temperature has been holding steady at least. Nino 1.2 has been hovering between 2.6C and 2.9C since last Spring.


Stronger trade winds tend to suppress El Nino events. Since trade winds are prevailing easterly winds that blow near the equator from east to west, they typically push warm surface waters toward the western Pacific resulting in the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters in the eastern Pacific. This in turn steepens the thermocline.

When trade winds strengthen or persistently blow stronger than usual, they enhance the oceanic processes that promote upwelling of cold waters in the eastern Pacific. This causes the surface waters to be colder than average, which creates unfavorable conditions for the development and sustenance of El Nino. The colder waters help maintain the typical temperature gradient across the Pacific and act as a negative feedback mechanism, suppressing the warming associated with El Nino.

On the other hand, during strengthening El Nino events, the trade winds typically weaken or even reverse (e.g., Westerly Wind Burst events or WWBs), leading to reduced upwelling of cold waters and allowing warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific (i.e., the thermocline gradient is reduced). This weakening of the trade winds is typically a crucial factor in the initiation and intensification of El Nino.
1 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#13493 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jul 07, 2023 2:20 am

USTropics wrote:
Stronger trade winds tend to suppress El Nino events. Since trade winds are prevailing easterly winds that blow near the equator from east to west, they typically push warm surface waters toward the western Pacific resulting in the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters in the eastern Pacific. This in turn steepens the thermocline.

When trade winds strengthen or persistently blow stronger than usual, they enhance the oceanic processes that promote upwelling of cold waters in the eastern Pacific. This causes the surface waters to be colder than average, which creates unfavorable conditions for the development and sustenance of El Nino. The colder waters help maintain the typical temperature gradient across the Pacific and act as a negative feedback mechanism, suppressing the warming associated with El Nino.

On the other hand, during strengthening El Nino events, the trade winds typically weaken or even reverse (e.g., Westerly Wind Burst events or WWBs), leading to reduced upwelling of cold waters and allowing warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific (i.e., the thermocline gradient is reduced). This weakening of the trade winds is typically a crucial factor in the initiation and intensification of El Nino.



Based on that, the strong trades previously forecasted should have brought down the temps at the Nino regions, particularly in Nino 1+2 which remains scorching hot at the moment. That is why I'm starting to think that the forecasts of strong trades were a little bit overdone. If anything, the actual strength of the trade winds was just enough to put a cap on the warming trend.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#13494 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:24 am

This El Niño event will most likely not reach the BOM's aggressive forecasts, but it appears to have weathered predictions of strong trades. Had they panned out, we wouldn't be seeing much of the warmth we have at the moment. Looking at raw anomaly maps, my amateur eyes tell me this looks like a textbook strong Niño in the making. The warming in the eastern regions seems impressive and robust.

At the same time, the atmospheric response hasn't met expectations either. It feels that there's lots of conflicting signals. It's already July, and it seems that we can't say whether or not this has turned out to be a bust. This is looking less likely to look be a 2012 or 2014.
1 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#13495 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 07, 2023 8:53 am

dexterlabio wrote:
USTropics wrote:
Stronger trade winds tend to suppress El Nino events. Since trade winds are prevailing easterly winds that blow near the equator from east to west, they typically push warm surface waters toward the western Pacific resulting in the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters in the eastern Pacific. This in turn steepens the thermocline.

When trade winds strengthen or persistently blow stronger than usual, they enhance the oceanic processes that promote upwelling of cold waters in the eastern Pacific. This causes the surface waters to be colder than average, which creates unfavorable conditions for the development and sustenance of El Nino. The colder waters help maintain the typical temperature gradient across the Pacific and act as a negative feedback mechanism, suppressing the warming associated with El Nino.

On the other hand, during strengthening El Nino events, the trade winds typically weaken or even reverse (e.g., Westerly Wind Burst events or WWBs), leading to reduced upwelling of cold waters and allowing warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific (i.e., the thermocline gradient is reduced). This weakening of the trade winds is typically a crucial factor in the initiation and intensification of El Nino.



Based on that, the strong trades previously forecasted should have brought down the temps at the Nino regions, particularly in Nino 1+2 which remains scorching hot at the moment. That is why I'm starting to think that the forecasts of strong trades were a little bit overdone. If anything, the actual strength of the trade winds was just enough to put a cap on the warming trend.


The strong trades were never close to Nino 1+2. Trades have been much weaker than normal in that region.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145299
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#13496 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 07, 2023 6:33 pm

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1677458118949867520




The latest ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates that El Niño will likely reach strong levels by August-September

100% of members indicate a strong event will be in place by November and continue through the end of 2023.


 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1677458122187886592




What is the confidence level on a strong El Niño?

The red blocks indicate that the ECMWF ensemble unanimously predicts a strong El Niño by November.

Over 70% of members show a very strong event developing (>2.0˚C anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific) by December.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#13497 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Jul 08, 2023 12:16 am

Kingarabian wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:
USTropics wrote:
Stronger trade winds tend to suppress El Nino events. Since trade winds are prevailing easterly winds that blow near the equator from east to west, they typically push warm surface waters toward the western Pacific resulting in the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters in the eastern Pacific. This in turn steepens the thermocline.

When trade winds strengthen or persistently blow stronger than usual, they enhance the oceanic processes that promote upwelling of cold waters in the eastern Pacific. This causes the surface waters to be colder than average, which creates unfavorable conditions for the development and sustenance of El Nino. The colder waters help maintain the typical temperature gradient across the Pacific and act as a negative feedback mechanism, suppressing the warming associated with El Nino.

On the other hand, during strengthening El Nino events, the trade winds typically weaken or even reverse (e.g., Westerly Wind Burst events or WWBs), leading to reduced upwelling of cold waters and allowing warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific (i.e., the thermocline gradient is reduced). This weakening of the trade winds is typically a crucial factor in the initiation and intensification of El Nino.



Based on that, the strong trades previously forecasted should have brought down the temps at the Nino regions, particularly in Nino 1+2 which remains scorching hot at the moment. That is why I'm starting to think that the forecasts of strong trades were a little bit overdone. If anything, the actual strength of the trade winds was just enough to put a cap on the warming trend.


The strong trades were never close to Nino 1+2. Trades have been much weaker than normal in that region.


I believe there were solid trade bursts in 180 to 100E back in April/early May.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#13498 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Jul 08, 2023 12:26 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
At the same time, the atmospheric response hasn't met expectations either. It feels that there's lots of conflicting signals. It's already July, and it seems that we can't say whether or not this has turned out to be a bust. This is looking less likely to look be a 2012 or 2014.


El Niño is already here so this is far from a bust. :lol: although there is a chance that the strong El Niño may still bust.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
JetFuel_SE
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 282
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#13499 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Jul 08, 2023 2:30 am

cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1677458118949867520

The latest ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates that El Niño will likely reach strong levels by August-September

100% of members indicate a strong event will be in place by November and continue through the end of 2023.


https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1677458122187886592

What is the confidence level on a strong El Niño?

The red blocks indicate that the ECMWF ensemble unanimously predicts a strong El Niño by November.

Over 70% of members show a very strong event developing (>2.0˚C anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific) by December.

Doesn't the ECM have a warm bias?
0 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ENSO Updates

#13500 Postby LarryWx » Sat Jul 08, 2023 3:12 pm

JetFuel_SE wrote:
cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1677458118949867520

The latest ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates that El Niño will likely reach strong levels by August-September

100% of members indicate a strong event will be in place by November and continue through the end of 2023.


https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1677458122187886592

What is the confidence level on a strong El Niño?

The red blocks indicate that the ECMWF ensemble unanimously predicts a strong El Niño by November.

Over 70% of members show a very strong event developing (>2.0˚C anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific) by December.

Doesn't the ECM have a warm bias?


1. Yes, ECM is warm biased.

2. We're 1/4 into July and yet OISST is still only at +1.0, which implies that ERSST (used to determine the ONI and how strong a Nino) based on recent differences is likely only ~+0.9. The latest BoM had reduced July from +1.8 to +1.5. I'm getting close to calling even the +1.5 a bust. It would take a massive warming of ERSST to +2+ the next 3 weeks for +1.5 July ERSST to occur. 
 
 Looking at OISST 3.4 weekly anomalies for oncoming El Niño since 1982, there are only two 3 week periods that warmed that rapidly:

-Sep 1982: warmed 1.1, but SOI was sub -20 Aug/Sep

-Mar 2014: warmed 1.4 but SOI was -13 2/21/14-3/21/14

 So, the SOI was strongly - in advance and during these two periods. The current 30 day is way up at +3. It does appear to be headed back to modest -SOI next weekend followed by a week+ of -SOI thanks to low Tahiti SLP. However, with Darwin SLP remaining kind of low much of that period, the oncoming -SOI doesn't look strong at this point until perhaps ~7/22. By then, it is probably too late to have much impact for July 3.4 SST anomalies.
 
 The OHC is quite warm at ~+1.4, but that's not warm enough to support a +2.0 in 3.4 within 3 weeks. In Sep of 1982, the OHC had warmed from +1.11 two months earlier to way up at +1.86. From 9/6/82 to 9/27/82, 3.4 SSTs warmed from +0.6 to +1.7. 

  In March of 2014, the OHC was way up at +1.60 after a massive warming from only +0.39 the month before.

 Thus, I see only a very small chance for a rapid warming in 3.4 the rest of this month. So, it looks like another too warm bust for BoM in July.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Fancy1002 and 39 guests