Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Trader Ron]

Might have to go long some Crow futures if GFDL/HWRF busts on intensity.

I agree with the track, not the intensity.

[Sabanic]

Each hour going by, the GOM threat is increasing..it's going to take longer to get together...I am 90 percent sure the models will shift to the GOM in the next couple days

Unfortunately I agree

[gatorcane]

Until the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL shift into the GOM, I don't buy it --- those models are consistent still in turning 92L into the Bahamas.

[KWT]

The two higher resolution models also have this at 50kts around now and have a clsoed circulation....

Also as I've said before those models have something of a right bias as well as they are based off GFS, if the ECM shifts then we need to watch closely.

[NEXRAD]

The two higher resolution models also have this at 50kts around now and have a clsoed circulation....

Also as I've said before those models have something of a right bias as well as they are based off GFS, if the ECM shifts then we need to watch closely.

A comment, not a forecast, but I was looking through my notes from past storms, and with 2004's Frances, the GFDL had a distinct right-bias and kept the storm well offshore Florida when Frances was near Puerto Rico. However, the GFS and UKMET did not demonstrate the same error.

- Jay

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow:

Until the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL shift into the GOM, I don't buy it --- those models are consistent still in turning 92L into the Bahamas.

But they also have it with a defined Closed LLC at that point.

[perk]

[quote="Trader Ron"]Might have to go long some Crow futures if GFDL/HWRF busts on intensity.

I agree with the track, not the intensity.

You may want to go back and read page 185 and see what 3 pro-mets wrote about 92L and it's future track.

[Dean4Storms]

Starting to see a bothering trend with this system. The 00z GFS strengthened the ridge and turns 92L back to the west and the further west 92L delays in developing I believe this system becomes a south Florida over to the GOM problem and appears 92l rounds the ridge and heads for the NE Gulf Coast.

I'm not sure what you are seeing but I don't see a trend. The eastern coast of Florida upward still looks the like the areas of concern if this ever gets it's act together.

It is fairly simple, the trend has been moving the development of 92L further and further west and even WSW, it wasn't but yesterday at the 6z GFDL run that it had a broad LLC located near 20.5N 67.5W and all the convection on the northern side at about this time. Go look and tell me what you see near 20.5N 67.5W. The trend has been for the center tracking further south and most all the convection on the south side.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Stormcenter]

Each hour going by, the GOM threat is increasing..it's going to take longer to get together...I am 90 percent sure the models will shift to the GOM in the next couple days



Already making that shift west, now most over South Florida..watch for it to continue, I wouldnt be surprised to see most fo the models showing SW Florida tonight

Huh.....I don't any models over south Fl. based on the graphic you posted.

[Brent]

Each hour going by, the GOM threat is increasing..it's going to take longer to get together...I am 90 percent sure the models will shift to the GOM in the next couple days



Already making that shift west, now most over South Florida..watch for it to continue, I wouldnt be surprised to see most fo the models showing SW Florida tonight

Huh.....I don't any models over south Fl. based on the graphic you posted.

I think you need to refresh.

[Dean4Storms]

Starting to see a bothering trend with this system. The 00z GFS strengthened the ridge and turns 92L back to the west and the further west 92L delays in developing I believe this system becomes a south Florida over to the GOM problem and appears 92l rounds the ridge and heads for the NE Gulf Coast.

I'm not sure what you are seeing but I don't see a trend. The eastern coast of Florida upward still looks the like the areas of concern if this ever gets it's act together.

It is fairly simple, the trend has been moving the development of 92L further and further west and even WSW, it wasn't but yesterday at the 6z GFDL run that it had a broad LLC located near 20.5N 67.5W and all the convection on the northern side at about this time. Go look and tell me what you see near 20.5N 67.5W. The trend has been for the center tracking further south and most all the convection on the south side.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

The GFDL had a closed low staying north of DR and headed west. This system looks like it is going to go right over the DR. So if it can't develop it stays shallow and heads further west IMO.

[Stormcenter]

I think everyone needs to take a deep breath and chill a litttle. The last time I looked we had a possible TD at best around PR. Oh sure it has all the "potential" in the world to become this or that but potential won't buy you a cup of coffee.

[Trader Ron]

Perk,

Lets see if the GFDL/HWRF models shift west, in the coming day's.
Anything is possible.

[gatorcane]

It's possible but I personally doubt it. They have been very persistent in a run up the East Coast of Florida or Western Bahamas....there have been MANY runs with this solution.

[Steve]

>>Not -removed- here, but why hasn't anyone besides me mentioned the Euro on here?

Many people have mentioned it over and over again as subsequent runs have come out (some of the chat is in the main thread, including mine, as I really don't have time to keep up with 2 threads with dozens of posts every 10 minutes). It's like this - early Monday I was fighting with the doubters (also believe 93L will be the eventual bigger storm if not stronger) who said no way, not gonna happen, etc. It was clear 92l was a threat. I'm still holding my > 90% chance of development. I'm also mildly entertained by the typical CONUS threat wars starting to take shape. Usually it's Texans vs. Floridians; now we've got some Carolinians vs. Floridians going at it. Some people earn their credibility by not using a state bias. For instance, Ivanhater does live on the panhandle but he's proven time and time again that he's not statecasting (either consciously or unconsciously). He's just a good poster. There are others. I am also known as a non-biased, non-statecasting poster. I refuse to get into that. Super early call from Tuesday was a threat between SE FL, Bahamas and the NC/SC border. That's right, Louisiana wasn't in the game. And unless I'm completely off here and 92L crosses South Florida on a W or just north of due W heading, we won't be. The things I've got against the models: a) Don't see NNW hits or NW hits on the Peninsula very often (or the Georgia Coastline); b) strengthening ridge and a western shunt isn't teleconnected in the WPAC even though the teleconnection is weak; c) closed system still not really identified for what it is.

People need to have their preparations in order but also need to be patient. It's not a fight. If you gotta get out, get out. It's pretty clear that there is a decent chance 92L becomes a monster/IH if it ever actually gets going and will impact life and property somewhere on the US Coast. That's why we have this forum. You can argue synoptics and models and whatever. That's the point. But try to do it from an anti-my problem point of view and argue it from the other guy's shoes (even if any of you are going to try to convince the rest of us you don't statecast or area cast). If you're in Texas, think of reasons why a storm might hit Florida. If you're in Florida, argue for the Carolinas. If you are in Alabama, tell everyone why you're only going to get the outer fringes of a storm because it's heading to Louisiana. This builds credibility and will help anyone ween off of wobble wars, state casting wars and other things that diminish the discussion.

JMO

Steve

[Trader Ron]

:uarrow:

It's possible but I personally doubt it. They have been very persistent in a run up the East Coast of Florida or Western Bahamas....there have been MANY runs with this solution.

Gator,

I concur.

[rockyman]

Heads up...12z GFS initializing

[DESTRUCTION5]

Heads up...12z GFS initializing

Keep us in the loop.

[rockyman]

GFS 24 hours...SOUTH of Hispaniola (though it initialized SSW of the west tip of PR)

[txwatcher91]

:uarrow:

It's possible but I personally doubt it. They have been very persistent in a run up the East Coast of Florida or Western Bahamas....there have been MANY runs with this solution.

Gator,

I concur.

They have been most consistent, the GFDL, EURO, GFS, and HWRF and I am sticking with them for the track as that seems most likely. Until they change I will stick with the consistency that they have had.