ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[CrazyC83]

Not implying in any way we are seeing Andrew's little sister but this is a bit eerie if only a coincidence


8/17/92 TS Andrew winds: 50 mph, 14.2N, 47.1W

8/15/09 TS Ana winds: 40 mph 14.6N, 46.8W


In the days that followed, Andrew would weaken some as he fought shear. And then conditions changed.

I don't think Andrew weakened at all in the shear. Recon still found 70 kt winds at 1,500 feet even when the pressure was 1015mb, which supports an intensity of 50 kt.

[wzrgirl1]

Not implying in any way we are seeing Andrew's little sister but this is a bit eerie if only a coincidence


8/17/92 TS Andrew winds: 50 mph, 14.2N, 47.1W

8/15/09 TS Ana winds: 40 mph 14.6N, 46.8W


In the days that followed, Andrew would weaken some as he fought shear. And then conditions changed.

Yes I remember. Scary coincidence.

[jinftl]

3 days later...


TROPICAL STORM ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU AUG 20 1992

...POORLY ORGANIZED ANDREW CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES
...400 KM...NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ... 17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TODAY.

THE STORM MAY HAVE WEAKENED SOME...IT HAS CERTAINLY BECOME MORE
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER. TSAF AND SAB ARE WITHIN 0.5 DEGREES
OF EACH OTHER AT A LOCATION WHICH RESULTS IN A PAST 12 HOUR MOTION
0F 310/14...WHILE THE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO LOCATE A
WELL DEFINED CENTER AT 5000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL AND THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURE FOUND BY THE AIRCRAFT SO FAR IS 1013 MB...UP 8 MB IN SIX
HOURS.

Not implying in any way we are seeing Andrew's little sister but this is a bit eerie if only a coincidence


8/17/92 TS Andrew winds: 50 mph, 14.2N, 47.1W

8/15/09 TS Ana winds: 40 mph 14.6N, 46.8W


In the days that followed, Andrew would weaken some as he fought shear. And then conditions changed.

I don't think Andrew weakened at all in the shear. Recon still found 70 kt winds at 1,500 feet even when the pressure was 1015mb, which supports an intensity of 50 kt.

[tolakram]

Looks to be only under 5 to 10 knots of shear.

/shrug These can be wrong.

[Javlin]

With the weakening and more shallow system further W was it the GFDL took her S of the Islands on the last run??

[jinftl]

Dry air is having more of an effect

Looks to be only under 5 to 10 knots of shear.

/shrug These can be wrong.

[cycloneye]

695
WTNT32 KNHC 151432
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...ANA...PRONOUNCED AH-NA...MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST OR ABOUT
920 MILES...1480 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ANA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 48.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


WTNT22 KNHC 151431
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 48.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 48.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 47.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.6N 50.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.2N 54.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.1N 58.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 85SE 60SW 85NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 48.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...ANA...PRONOUNCED AH-NA...MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST OR ABOUT
920 MILES...1480 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ANA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 48.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[jlauderdal]

GFDL correctly had Katrina's southward dip through South Florida (just way too strong) when all other guidance was straight west across the state, if I remember right.

yes it was the only one to pick up on the dip into the keys

[wxman57]

Beven forecasts Ana to continue to intensify through the day today? Maybe he sees something I/we don't. NHC may have no choice but to downgrade on the next advisory unless Ana makes a dramatic comeback convection-wise.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm noticing a bend back West when Ana nears Florida. Perhaps a sign of a High building in.

[jinftl]

70mph ts knocking on miami's door in 120 hrs




OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

[Air Force Met]

Here's a shot of Ana's exposed center and another WV shot showing the upper-level low to its northwest. A WV loop does indicate moderate SW winds now over Ana (shear). And that's why the center is exposed. MIMIC TPW imagery shows a pretty good moist envelope around Ana, though dry air is wrapping around south of the storm, particularly to the southwest of the center.

Hate to disagree with you there...but if you look at a WV loop...or even go to the SSD loops and overlay the upper level winds...there is no shear. Winds are 10 kts from the ESE over the center right now. Given its movement...shear is almost 0. See the shear maps.

Also again on the WV...you have cirrus moving out away (to the west) from the center for a couple hundred miles.

Also...look at the vis. The cirrus is just sitting on top of the center...not really moving.

[wxman57]

I think there's an excellent chance it'll remain weaker and track left of the current forecast. Could pass closer to Cuba than Florida, assuming it survives.

[JPmia]

70mph ts knocking on miami's door in 120 hrs




OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

I have my doubts about that forecast noticing all those islands it will have to go over first...nice to hear that the NE Caribbean islands could see less of an impact from Ana

[Air Force Met]

Gotta agree 57....like I said last night, the ULL to the north of Ana would keep her weak and this is exactly what is happening. The dry air surrounding Ana is not the main cause of this yo-yo convective activity, its the shear. I've seen many intense hurricanes surrounded by dry air. Yes, back to a remnant low is a possibility, but I see Ana limping along in the short term.......MGC

There is no shear over the center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

Follow the cirrus and overlay the upper winds....the HDW-H.

[jinftl]

I agree that if it travels over Hispanola and Cuba, it won't survive. If it is northern half of cone, it will avoid those landmasses....then, all bets are off.

70mph ts knocking on miami's door in 120 hrs




OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

I have my doubts about that forecast noticing all those islands it will have to go over first...nice to hear that the NE Caribbean islands could see less of an impact from Ana

[Recurve]

Ever since seeing on radar that August morning that the eyewall was only about 20 miles away in Florida City, when we weren't expecting K to come within a hundred miles of the Keys...I keep one eye on the GFDL, logical or not.

[wxman57]

Gotta agree 57....like I said last night, the ULL to the north of Ana would keep her weak and this is exactly what is happening. The dry air surrounding Ana is not the main cause of this yo-yo convective activity, its the shear. I've seen many intense hurricanes surrounded by dry air. Yes, back to a remnant low is a possibility, but I see Ana limping along in the short term.......MGC

There is no shear over the center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

Follow the cirrus and overlay the upper winds....the HDW-H.

I do see the outflow flattening out on the western side of the storm that loop, AFM. Sure does look like shear increases as it moves westward.

[JonathanBelles]

LOL @NHC Ah-na is finally here. Forecast track is interesting. Better not hit land, or the intensity forecast is gonna be wrong.