Texas Winter 2016-2017

[CaptinCrunch]

The arctic front arrives on Saturday, but the exact timing is
still yet to be determined. Most of the models have an arrival
time on the Red River around midday; however, arctic fronts tend
to move slightly faster than model timing. In keeping consistency
with the previous shift, bumped the timing up about 2-3 hours
over the model consensus. This places the front south of the Red
River at midday with a steady advancement south through the day.
Models continue to indicate a few showers are possible along and
ahead of the front in our eastern and southern zones and will keep
a slight chance for showers during the day on Saturday as a
combination of height falls with the approaching upper level
trough and forcing along the front may be enough to weaken or
overcome the cap in some places. If the cap is overcome, it is
possible a few thunderstorms may occur but forecast soundings
continue to indicate the cap will hold for most of the day.

Strong north winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up 30 mph can be
expected behind the front, and temperatures will drastically drop.
The strong winds will continue into Saturday night when overnight
lows will bottom out in the teens to upper 20s. The combination of
cold temperatures and strong winds will result in wind chill
readings overnight Saturday and Sunday morning in the single
digits and teens. Wind chill values in our northwest counties may
approach zero degrees.

Regarding the snow potential Saturday evening and night, there is
still a low potential for flurries or light snow to occur north of
Interstate 20, but the overall finer details do not look as good
as they did 24 hours ago. During the evening and overnight hours,
the previously mentioned upper level trough will quickly swing
through the Plains leaving North Texas in the right rear quadrant
of a 170-kt jet steak. Forecast soundings show a cold and moist
temperature profile below 600 mb, but there are pockets of dry
air between 700-850 mb. In addition, the dendritic growth zone now
appears to be lacking moisture which could mean a lack of ice
crystals for snow production. However, with the lift associated
with the trough and jet streak, it`s possible dynamic lift may
cool and moisten the atmospheric profile enough for flurries or
light snow. Therefore, will keep the slight chance for light snow
with no or very little accumulations expected. The snow should be
brief due to the fast moving nature of the system and no impacts
are expected.

Brutal cold conditions will continue Sunday and Monday with highs
on Sunday only in the mid 20s to mid 30s. The surface high will
remain just northeast of the region through Monday and then shift
east allowing south winds to return across the region.
Temperatures will warm through the end of the valid forecast
period.

The cut-off low that we have been watching the past few days is
expected to retrograde into the Pacific Ocean, and will likely not
affect our area next week. Instead, another fast moving upper
level disturbance will cross through the Plains around the middle
of next week, and there is good model agreement it will send
another front into our area. At this time, moisture return ahead
of this system appears limited and we will maintain a dry
forecast with the front in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe.
However, we will continue to keep an eye on this system for
changes in timing and amount of moisture. At this time,
temperatures next week appear too warm for any threat of wintry
precip, but we will remain diligent in watching each system that
affects our area. A stronger trough could affect the region around
Christmas.

[Snowman67]

Ok..where is Wxman57? Wonder what his take is on this? I know..I know...wait 2-3 days before the event...

Do not do or say anything that may provoke the Heat Miser. He may, and I stress may, take his hands off of the controls...

[gpsnowman]

34 degrees and light mist falling where I am at near the airport. Sure has the look and feel of a snowy day............without the snow of course. I think the little cold front that blew through last night is over performing just a bit.

[gboudx]

Ok..where is Wxman57? Wonder what his take is on this? I know..I know...wait 2-3 days before the event...

Do not do or say anything that may provoke the Heat Miser. He may, and I stress may, take his hands off of the controls...

Yep. I can't say it enough, do not poke the bike riding bear. But his advice of wait 2-3 days would be on-point.

[hriverajr]

At moment other than the cold.. does not look like much of a winter precip event. In fact models at moment are not looking favorable for a pre christmas event either. Although I will say models not completely in sync with what I see currently. Lets see what they next model run shows.. (btw I only have access to basic stuff at moment)

[gpsnowman]

Hard to believe tomorrow will be 73 degrees.

[orangeblood]

Well Lucy has literally pulled our storm out into the Pacific Ocean, retrograding it towards Hawaii. Not much is coming together for the foreseeable future on any model runs...after this weekends Arctic front, not a lot of Arctic Air coming into the pattern, just cooler Pacific Air which normally doesn't translate into winter weather around here.

[stormlover2013]

never trust models for winter more than 5-7 days out lol........2 days out is more like it. That's what I have learned

[Portastorm]

Well Lucy has literally pulled our storm out into the Pacific Ocean, retrograding it towards Hawaii. Not much is coming together for the foreseeable future on any model runs...after this weekends Arctic front, not a lot of Arctic Air coming into the pattern, just cooler Pacific Air which normally doesn't translate into winter weather around here.

I'm really not picking on you here but have you looked at the ensembles and the various runs within the ensembles? Dude, they're literally all over the map after about 120 hours. I'm not promising winter weather or anything around Christmas but I will say that you're going to die a thousand deaths if you rise and fall with each model run. There's just way too much volatility. The real smart folks are talking about atmospheric angular momentum and mountain torque and how these things are disrupting everything right now from the predicted air flow to the earth's rotation.

The point is that we really can't trust these models beyond a few days. Or, you can, and end up like Charlie Brown.

[Ntxw]

35F and misting at DFW, Sunday likely won't get much above freezing if at all. There has been plenty of cold, it would be a disappointment if we don't cash out something snow wise out of it all. Trust nothing beyond 3-5 days. Even more true trust nothing 7 days out

[orangeblood]

Also, came across some interesting research regarding the QBO (Quasi-biennial Oscillation - tropical stratosphere winds) effects during La Ninas.....the infamous Southeast Ridge appears to be much stronger in years when the QBO is westerly, well we are decidedly westerly this winter season. As you can see, that Southeast Ridge might become a huge problem this winter season but hopefully, it becomes an asset to prevent too much cold bypassing the southern plains to the east. Hopefully, cold air is strong enough to cut into the southeast ridge, aligning the storm track from the southern plains into the midwest. Something to keep an eye on....



This depiction appears to be almost exactly to what the ensemble members are showing over the next few weeks, a strong southeast ridge preventing storms from taking a more southerly route....

[orangeblood]

Well Lucy has literally pulled our storm out into the Pacific Ocean, retrograding it towards Hawaii. Not much is coming together for the foreseeable future on any model runs...after this weekends Arctic front, not a lot of Arctic Air coming into the pattern, just cooler Pacific Air which normally doesn't translate into winter weather around here.

I'm really not picking on you here but have you looked at the ensembles and the various runs within the ensembles? Dude, they're literally all over the map after about 120 hours. I'm not promising winter weather or anything around Christmas but I will say that you're going to die a thousand deaths if you rise and fall with each model run. There's just way too much volatility. The real smart folks are talking about atmospheric angular momentum and mountain torque and how these things are disrupting everything right now from the predicted air flow to the earth's rotation.

The point is that we really can't trust these models beyond a few days. Or, you can, and end up like Charlie Brown.

Actually, from what I can tell over the last few days, the ensemble members and longer range models have been quite consistent on a strong - PNA, + EPO, + WPO, +AO regime, which screams strong southeast ridge overtaking the southeast into the southern plains

[Ntxw]

Southeast ridge is a staple of La Ninas anyway, this is why the perception of cold north, warm south look. The stronger the Nina the more the SE ridge flexes late into winter which is often why front heavy winters. Our second half of winter will likely be determined by if the Nina fades or not

Those QBO maps just tells me that if you have a -AO storm track is further south. -AO does this in any winter pattern pretty much. I have a tough time analoguing the QBO

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

35F and misting at DFW, Sunday likely won't get much above freezing if at all. There has been plenty of cold, it would be a disappointment if we don't cash out something snow wise out of it all. Trust nothing beyond 3-5 days. Even more true trust nothing 7 days out

On Saturday, as a practical matter can we really see a 40-50 degree temperature drop without seeing some type of overrunning scenario?

[Ntxw]

35F and misting at DFW, Sunday likely won't get much above freezing if at all. There has been plenty of cold, it would be a disappointment if we don't cash out something snow wise out of it all. Trust nothing beyond 3-5 days. Even more true trust nothing 7 days out

On Saturday, as a practical matter can we really see a 40-50 degree temperature drop without seeing some type of overrunning scenario?

If the "vorticity" at 5H is not there (too far north) then it will be dry because there is no mechanism for lift behind the cold front. Cold air this year has been fairly deep this December.

[STX Expat]

Adding to the current condition discussion, it was 31° with light freezing drizzle/freezing fog in Sherman earlier. Vehicle, shrubs and, no doubt, trees with a light glaze. Temp now sitting at 32°. That's the first fropa since a few hours of snow last mid-January. Curious if others in the border counties have anything similar.

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z GFS is bringing out the SW US trough this run and not stalling it in the EPAC. It looks too warm across the state for wintry precip by the time it gets here around the middle of next week, however we could see a good rain event if this pans out.

Just another big model shift in the 4-6 day period. They are clearly struggling right now.

[Ntxw]

The 12z GFS is bringing out the SW US trough this run and not stalling it in the EPAC. It looks too warm across the state for wintry precip by the time it gets here around the middle of next week, however we could see a good rain event if this pans out.

Just another big model shift in the 4-6 day period. They are clearly struggling right now.

Yeah its not stalling it on this run way back. Hard to have any faith. Big cut off lows are a forecast nightmare

[Tireman4]

The 12z GFS is bringing out the SW US trough this run and not stalling it in the EPAC. It looks too warm across the state for wintry precip by the time it gets here around the middle of next week, however we could see a good rain event if this pans out.

Just another big model shift in the 4-6 day period. They are clearly struggling right now.

Yeah its not stalling it on this run way back. Hard to have any faith. Big cut off lows are a forecast nightmare

And so is cold dense air...

[gpsnowman]

Pete Delkus jinxed us all!!!