ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

The hasn’t risen much so another unexpected round of increase in wind speed could occur anytime if the inner core is able to sort itself out.

[CrazyC83]

This somewhat reminds me of Iris in 2001. Rapidly intensified, took a pause then another bomb out.

[GCANE]

VDM 961 mb
No mention of eye character

Eye Drop 29% RH

[MississippiWx]

VDM 961 mb
No mention of eye character

Eye Drop 29% RH

29% is the lowest RH level of the day by far, I believe. Eye could clear out tonight if shear allows.

[aspen]

Delta’s max winds and core structure took a massive blow, but pressure-wise, it’s not so bad — the pressure hasn’t even risen 10 mbar since the last pass. Still, its core went from excellent to crap very quickly and it doesn’t look like it’ll be able to fully recover for landfall.

[ozonepete]

I would just caution everyone on here that statements such as "Mexico can breathe a sigh of relief" or anything near that is not in the spirit of what we do here. RECON has not even sampled a large part of the storm and it is 6 or 7 hours away from landfall in northeastern Mexico. We don't want anyone who visits here to think this storm has collapsed in strength and/or is no longer a threat. My niece and her husband live in Cozumel and I would never want them to see any statements like that right now. I'm trying to calm them down.

[Stormgodess]

From the NWS 1 minute ago??

 https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1313636280018915330




https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1313636280018915330?s=20

[ElectricStorm]

Delta’s max winds and core structure took a massive blow, but pressure-wise, it’s not so bad — the pressure hasn’t even risen 10 mbar since the last pass. Still, its core went from excellent to crap very quickly and it doesn’t look like it’ll be able to fully recover for landfall.

See I would think it would be easier for it to restrengthen since the pressure didn't rise all that much

[GCANE]

Gonzo's drops showing a nearly east to west 200mb 30 knot jet impinging on the east side of Delta
A consequence of being SW of the center of the ARWB.

[tolakram]

IMO it's clearly strengthening again, look at the shock (gravity?) waves coming from the center convection. If so this would match what the HWRF modeled, which was a pause and even some weakening followed by another round of strengthening.

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_ircm/meso1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

[LarryWx]

IMO it's clearly strengthening again, look at the shock (gravity?) waves coming from the center convection. If so this would match what the HWRF modeled, which was a pause and even some weakening followed by another round of strengthening.

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_ircm/meso1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

Actually, the 18Z HWRF has it weakening with lowest pressure rising from now through hour 24 before going back over water and later getting to its strongest yet.

[DestinHurricane]

It has clearly weakened some but I think once it gets its core together it will be all systems go again. Would not rule out cat 5 in southern gulf.

Delta just had to stop in Atlanta before taking off again.

[Kazmit]

NE pass coming up, which will be important for revealing the top winds and seeing if it has strengthened, weakened, or leveled off since the last pass.

[Do_For_Love]

Very interesting

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313637745802215424

[Keldeo1997]

Uhh oh. Core is coming back. Larger to

[GCANE]

GFS depictions of the ARWB now and when Delta in the mid GoM.
Shouldn't be much of an UL Jet then.
That UL HIgh keeps moving west run-to-run.

[Steve]

Delta’s max winds and core structure took a massive blow, but pressure-wise, it’s not so bad — the pressure hasn’t even risen 10 mbar since the last pass. Still, its core went from excellent to crap very quickly and it doesn’t look like it’ll be able to fully recover for landfall.

See I would think it would be easier for it to restrengthen since the pressure didn't rise all that much

Not only that but the fact that the shear is hitting from the east and it’s moving wnw, it’s not going to destroy or shear off the mid levels. Shear is 30mph out the East, and forward speed this afternoon was 17mph. It’s WNW so maybe effects of slightly more than the 13 point difference. I don’t know physics but that’s fairly obvious.

[Keldeo1997]

Might be showing signs of lower shear. Outflow from the East/NE side becoming less restricted

[supercane4867]

Now that the tiny 4nm wide eye has collapsed and gone. It should be able to reconstruct with a larger stable eyewall from now on.

[aspen]

Even if Delta recovers, I don’t think it’ll break 120 kt again. If it does, I will eat the hat I have left over from when Dolly failed to become a hurricane (I said I would eat my hat if it became one).