Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

Looks like after this front passes we’ll begin to warm up starting Tuesday afternoon but we could be in for another front by day 9 or 10 which would be around next weekend. That possible front currently intrigues me more than the one we’re about to get.

An interesting fact for that one is the HP, should it survive the trek, originates from the recent MT event (descending high in E-Asia) that generated the cold wave there with some regions experiencing -40C or greater fairly far to the south (China and N Korea). It'll be fascinating that it survives across the Pacific and descends N-America adding to angular momentum. Who would have guessed a mountain torque event in Asia helps shake up the North Pacific?



There are some papers that do suggest angular momentum (AAM) peaks once the MJO nears the dying phases of the WPAC/dateline. So perhaps not a coincidence what just happened in E-Asia provided a boost to the AAM (=more high latitude blocking).

[AustinTXResident]

An interesting fact for that one is the HP, should it survive the trek, originates from the recent MT event (descending high in E-Asia) that generated the cold wave there with some regions experiencing -40C or greater fairly far to the south (China and N Korea). It'll be fascinating that it survives across the Pacific and descends N-America adding to angular momentum.

Source?

[AustinTXResident]

18z GEFS has ... 1/3 to 1 inch in DFW

Not sure where you saw that. In any event, now it's saying 0.08 inches.

[wxman57]

UKMET now only has some snow in the panhandle Saturday night. Canadian is still high on something, forecasting near 20F for Monday's low here in Houston. Other models are in the 31-33 range. Winter weather in central Texas on the 384-hr panel again.

[HockeyTx82]

An interesting fact for that one is the HP, should it survive the trek, originates from the recent MT event (descending high in E-Asia) that generated the cold wave there with some regions experiencing -40C or greater fairly far to the south (China and N Korea). It'll be fascinating that it survives across the Pacific and descends N-America adding to angular momentum.

Source?

Copy "angular momentum (AAM) peaks once the MJO nears the dying phases of the WPAC/dateline" and search with your search engine of choice and see what you find.

[EnnisTx]

Nice downpour in Arlington this morning. Source: radar/observation

[Ntxw]

An interesting fact for that one is the HP, should it survive the trek, originates from the recent MT event (descending high in E-Asia) that generated the cold wave there with some regions experiencing -40C or greater fairly far to the south (China and N Korea). It'll be fascinating that it survives across the Pacific and descends N-America adding to angular momentum.

Source?

Copy "angular momentum (AAM) peaks once the MJO nears the dying phases of the WPAC/dateline" and search with your search engine of choice and see what you find.

I literally posted the model run with the loop. They're clearly trolling at this point. Which is a discussion we'll need to have.

But yeah AAM is a good read for blocking if anyone is interested.

[kingwood_tx1999]

Man, we can't even get highs in the 40s here In houston lol its been like the 50s and 60s since December..what gives?

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[wxman57]

This morning's low in Houston was 73 degrees. Not bad for late December. I will enjoy the next 4 days in preparation for the brief freeze-out Sun/Mon.

[orangeblood]

Winter weather potential definitely still on the table for Sunday, several ensemble members more robust with the ejecting energy rounding the base of the trough swinging through

[Ntxw]

An interesting fact for that one is the HP, should it survive the trek, originates from the recent MT event (descending high in E-Asia) that generated the cold wave there with some regions experiencing -40C or greater fairly far to the south (China and N Korea). It'll be fascinating that it survives across the Pacific and descends N-America adding to angular momentum.

Source?

What source are you looking for? I can link you to the model runs if that's what you want but I would assume with the resources you claim to have it wouldn't be needed?

[Ntxw]

Getting a little bit of rain this morning in parts of TX and Oklahoma. There's linkage to the subtropical jet which is nice to see, it's been awhile especially with the -PDO/Nina influence. It's been really dry of late.

[lrak]

An interesting fact for that one is the HP, should it survive the trek, originates from the recent MT event (descending high in E-Asia) that generated the cold wave there with some regions experiencing -40C or greater fairly far to the south (China and N Korea). It'll be fascinating that it survives across the Pacific and descends N-America adding to angular momentum.

Source?

That's funny, I would say the "source" is planet Earth's north polar regions.

[Edwards Limestone]

Yeah I'm not sure what happened but apparently it's our wettest December ever at over 8 inches. This year obviously has been the total opposite way below normal

The 80s especially during mid period of the decade was a very +PDO regime which coincides with an overall wetter times. This year we are amidst a deep -PDO which can account for some of the extensive dry periods since late Spring that will likely continue into 2022.

Code: Select all

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Dec 1984   0.48
Nov 1984   0.54
Oct 1984   0.43
Sep 1984   0.18
Aug 1984   0.01

Code: Select all

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Nov 2021   -2.71
Oct 2021   -3.15
Sep 2021   -1.99
Aug 2021   -0.92

Austin had below average precipitation during the mid-1980s.

Source?

[HockeyTx82]

An interesting fact for that one is the HP, should it survive the trek, originates from the recent MT event (descending high in E-Asia) that generated the cold wave there with some regions experiencing -40C or greater fairly far to the south (China and N Korea). It'll be fascinating that it survives across the Pacific and descends N-America adding to angular momentum.

Source?

What source are you looking for? I can link you to the model runs if that's what you want but I would assume with the resources you claim to have it wouldn't be needed?

I guess besides our signature saying don't trust anything we post or take it as Gospel we now need to start doing a full citation with each post to reference where we are getting our information. I mean cutting down on disinformation is always good.

[Ntxw]

Lets get back to weather discussion.

12z GFS says no snow outside of Northern Oklahoma this weekend. The trend the past 2 days have been more interaction between the 2 jets with a stronger leading wave (good for theProfessor!) but positive tilt dry cold behind it for us. Probably another day or so of runs if there were to be major shifts but it will become less likely to have sig shifting the closer it gets. To increase the odds the leading wave will need to move out quickly and allow the northern stream to amplify.

[drred4]

Nice downpour in Arlington this morning. Source: radar/observation

What you did there, I saw it.

[HockeyTx82]

Nice downpour in Arlington this morning. Source: radar/observation

What you did there, I saw it.

Does my weather rock and feather count too? They are 100% accurate and real time.

[wxman57]

Very progressive pattern (fast west to east movement) will continue for the next couple of weeks. I notice that the west to east jet core over the central U.S. hit 200 kts yesterday. Smokin'! Not looking forward to Saturday night's front. I'll be spending Sunday under my electric blanket with a pillow-sized heating pad on my back, trying to keep my extremities from freezing.

Good news for you guys up north is that the 12Z GFS has a patch of winter weather not far west of D-FW at day 15...

[ElectricStorm]

Went outside and saw some mammatus clouds today. Always cool to see those.