MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0655
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 252052Z - 252245Z
   
   SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
   MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN MARGINAL AND FAIRLY ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THREAT.
   
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX
   AHEAD OF A 700 MB COLD FRONT. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST UNSTABLE
   PARCELS NEAR THIS LEVEL POSSESSING CAPES OF AROUND 500 TO 750 J/KG.
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS MODEST /AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS/. THIS WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WHICH WILL PRODUCE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
   MARGINALLY SEVERE. QPF SIGNAL FROM 09Z SREF INDICATES ACTIVITY
   SHOULD PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NERN TX INTO THE
   EVENING.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT...
   
   31200114 31650059 32369939 32759848 33259733 33589602
   33319552 32829538 32169547 31679618 31339730 31049876
   30859989 30930063

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...SWRN VA...WRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 252216Z - 252345Z
   
   THE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN VA AND WRN NC THIS
   EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION SHORTLY.
   
   SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SWD/SEWD TOWARD SWRN VA AND NERN TN
   WITH STORMS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INCREASING. LIFT ACROSS THE
   REGION WAS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
   OF PROGRESSIVE AND LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
   KY/TN. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO INDUCE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT
   NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA LATER TONIGHT.
   DIURNAL HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   AS CONVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR THE DEVELOPING
   WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...  PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO
   BE FROM A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS ORGANIZED
   INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS. AREAL COVERAGE MAY REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN TIME
   OF DAY...BUT FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY SUSTAIN THE SEVERE
   THREAT INTO THE NIGHT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...
   
   36517883 35588023 35308204 35328309 35408372 35658392
   36368299 36828185 37298043 37447995 37497933 37397896
   36867861

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0720 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY/TN...NERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250...
   
   VALID 260020Z - 260115Z
   
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EXTREME NERN AR AND PARTS OF WRN TN OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR.
   
   MOST INTENSE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL HAS MOVED ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL
   LAST HOUR WITH A REPORT OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
   THIS CELL...WHICH WAS NEAR DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE/LOW WILL CONTINUE
   MOVING ACROSS DYER COUNTY TN OVER THE NEXT 45 MINUTES BEFORE MOVING
   INTO GIBSON AND NRN CROCKETT COUNTIES THEREAFTER.
   
   ADDITIONAL CELLS WERE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN NERN AR.
   STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM DIFFLUENT MID
   LEVEL JET STREAK...AND VERY STEEP RATES EVIDENT IN LATEST LITTLE
   ROCK RAOB...WERE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE INCREASE IN THIS
   ACTIVITY. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY WINDS TO AROUND
   50KT...COULD INCREASE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI COUNTY AR IN ABOUT AN HOUR.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   
   37069121 36499122 36509252 35719239 35679290 35479288
   35339199 35039204 34919058 35019013 35008793 35848798
   35938811 36628802 36638768 36968764 37068797 37268817
   37448788 37548796 37388877 37218864 37378953 37068998
   37329007 37279063

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0731 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249...
   
   VALID 260031Z - 260200Z
   
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SWRN
   PORTION OF WATCH. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY FURTHER NEWD IN
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONTINUE WW.
   
   AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX WITH
   MLCAPES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG /PER 00Z CRP SOUNDING/. SUPERCELLS WILL
   CONTINUE TO THRIVE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM AROUND KARNES TO JIM
   WELLS COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE W OF THESE AREAS
   SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO A MORE MULTICELLULAR MODE MAY OCCUR AFTER
   DARK. IMPRESSIVE SWD MOVING SUPERCELL ACROSS SRN DUVAL COUNTY WOULD
   APPEAR TO HAVE SOME TORNADIC POTENTIAL GIVEN MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...A
   VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD PER 00Z CRP SOUNDING AND INCREASING
   BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT.
   
   FURTHER NE...TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
   00Z LCH SOUNDING AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AREA IS
   UNCAPPED. CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE IN LAVACA COUNTY AND
   ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. 18Z NAM-WRF GUIDANCE INDICATED THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z.
   THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG MLCAPE PER 00Z LCH
   SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   28290026 28990041 29069958 29029872 29359756 30219652
   31139492 30349466 29699439 29339433 28669530 27639721
   27309783 27289887 27289932

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0845 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN AR...WRN LA...ERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 260145Z - 260315Z
   
   CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE INCREASING
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN TX...WRN LA...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN
   AR...LATE THIS EVENING. THESE AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH.
   
   PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF ELEVATED...BUT INTENSE...CONVECTION MOVING
   EAST ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID
   LEVEL IMPULSE ACTING ON VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ABOVE SURFACE-BASED
   FRONTAL INVERSION. FARTHER EAST...FROM TX/LA BORDER NWD/EWD ACROSS
   THE MS VALLEY...WARM SECTOR AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS
   BEEN GRADUALLY RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS. LATEST
   RUC...GFS...AND ETAKF GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION
   SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
   EVOLVING INTO ANOTHER MCS THAT WOULD THEN DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS PROBABLE BASED ON EVENING
   RAOB DATA FROM SHV AND LCH INDICATING LITTLE INHIBITION EXISTS
   WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW
   AND ADEQUATE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH INITIAL
   CELL ROTATION...AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATING COLD POOLS. THUS...
   INCREASINGLY POTENTIAL FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   SUGGESTS A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE AREA IN ABOUT AN HOUR.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   30209348 30489444 31099454 32939370 33289327 33249212
   31629214

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0913 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NC...SWRN/SRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 251...
   
   VALID 260213Z - 260415Z
   
   STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SRN
   VA THE NC PIEDMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
   
   AS COLD FRONT REDEVELOPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...STRONG LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
   WILL MAINTAIN TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM LINES
   AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MOVING EAST LATE THIS EVENING. EARLIER GSO
   RAOB INDICATED STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL
   THREAT FROM A FEW OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...OVERALL
   SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
   INHIBITS STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...
   
   35168283 35688304 36478201 36748133 37008131 37637998
   37587963 37737923 37607893 37737853 37557771 37327726
   37027740 36897754 36697752 36517711 36117724 35847737
   35677764 35837775 35747825 35547884 35428027

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0661
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0938 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252...
   
   VALID 260238Z - 260415Z
   
   THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
   LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH A MORE
   LIMITED THREAT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FAR SOUTH TX COAST. GIVEN
   PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...CONVECTION
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL BEYOND WW 252 EXPIRATION TIME /04Z/.
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AFTER
   04Z...ALTHOUGH LOCAL WFO EXTENSION OF WW 252 MAY OCCUR.
   
   00Z BRO SOUNDINGS SHOWED A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850
   MB...WITH TEMPERATURES 3-4 DEGREES WARMER IN THIS LAYER THAN ON THE
   00Z CRP SOUNDING. RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS LARGE AMT
   OF CINH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT WEST OF THE
   IMMEDIATE FAR SOUTH TX COAST. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
   WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SVR HAIL/WIND WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER
   THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR HAS INCREASED RECENTLY PER THE BRO 88-D VWP DATA...AND THUS AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY WITH
   THE SUPERCELL STORM OVER ERN JIM HOGG AND WRN BROOKS COUNTIES/.
   ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC
   FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OVER THE NWRN 1/3RD OF WW 252
   FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
   MAXIMIZED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
   
   25839955 27539957 27309685 25569686

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1001 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250...
   
   VALID 260301Z - 260400Z
   
   AFTER EARLIER INTENSE ACTIVITY...TSTMS NOW APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING
   RAPIDLY ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW 250. HOWEVER...OTHER STORMS
   WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING INTO
   INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN AR. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD
   ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL
   WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY PLANNED IN THE REGION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...
   
   34988915 34889041 35309045 35948963 35868812 34968800

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 253...
   
   VALID 260442Z - 260545Z
   
   STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS LA
   AND THE UPPER TX COAST LATE TONIGHT. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
   CONDITIONS IN POST-MCS AIR MASS ACROSS LA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   MODEST/STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN PERSISTENT LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING
   FRONTAL CIRCULATION. ADEQUATE DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KT OBSERVED ON
   WINFIELD AND DE QUEEN WIND PROFILERS SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF
   HAIL/WIND EVENTS COULD OCCUR AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
   THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   29219222 29379373 29089494 28939533 30199470 31929459
   32459403 33069340 33049197 32209190 30769220

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 260457Z - 260630Z
   
   MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SERN/SCNTRL TX EARLY TODAY.
   
   PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP LOW LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION IS
   APPARENTLY ADEQUATE FOR PARCELS TO AGAIN REACH AN LFC ABOVE 850MB
   ACROSS SERN/SCNTRL TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS WAS NOW
   INCREASING ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE...GENERALLY ALONG A
   LINE FROM HDO TO AUS TO CLL. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION
   INDICATED MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AVAILABLE TO THIS NEW ROUND OF
   STORMS. STRONG CLOUD BEARING SHEAR OF 40-60KT FURTHER SUPPORTS
   UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION AND PERSISTENCE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
   REGARDING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONGER UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE
   REGION...AND EXTENT OF SEVERE STORM COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY...WITH
   SEVERE THREAT LIKELY CONFINED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OF ABOUT AN
   INCH OR SO...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   30339555 29379839 29489955 30259884 31159636 31389544
   31229523

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0665
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN LA...NRN AL...MUCH OF MS.
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 260623Z - 260830Z
   
   GEN TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS CORRIDOR FROM NRN AL TO SWRN
   MS THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
   SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGLLY SEVERE
   HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED TSTM COMPLEXES NOW MOVING ESEWD FROM SWRN TN AND NWRN MS
   TOWARD N-CENTRAL AL...AS WELL AS MOVING EWD FROM WW 253 ACROSS MS
   RIVER FROM ERN LA INTO WRN MS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS FROM FL PANHANDLE INTO NRN GULF...THEN
   NWWD ACROSS EXTREME SE TX AND EXTREME SWRN LA. NRN PORTION OF
   MCS-OVERTURNED AIR ALOFT APPEARS TO LIE NEAR BHM-GWO LINE.  MODIFIED
   RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG
   ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN MS...TRENDING UPWARD TO 1500-2000 J/KG
   RANGE WITH NRN EXTENT INTO NRN PORTIONS MS/AL WHERE EARLIER MCS DID
   NOT AFFECT AIR MASS ALOFT AS MUCH.  GIVEN STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER
   NRN PORTIONS MS/AL...AND SOMEWHAT LARGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES
   WITH NRN EXTENT...HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LARGER WITH ACTIVITY IN
   THOSE AREAS THAN WITH COMPLEX MOVING EWD FROM LA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   30789212 32159205 33189157 34479009 34958867 35008789
   34818642 34218633 33908677 33728787 33028895 31488921
   30469129 30359214

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0666
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...CENTRAL/SRN LA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 253...254...
   
   VALID 260819Z - 260945Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR TYPO
   
   THREAT FOR ELEVATED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS BEHIND SFC COLD
   FRONT ACROSS MOST OF SE TX...IN AREA OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND SHEAR
   ALOFT THAT IS ROOTED ATOP FRONTAL SFC. TSTMS N HOU HAVE PRODUCED
   HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES DIAMETER WITHIN PAST 1-2 HOURS.  MORE LARGE HAIL
   IS EXPECTED FROM MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS IN LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
   COVERING MUCH OF TX/LA S OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW HOU...LFK...POE.
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER W AND SW ACROSS WW...ALSO
   N OF SFC COLD FRONT.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH BROAD PLUME OF MOIST
   ASCENT ATOP STABLE FRONTAL LAYER.  ELEVATED MUCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG
   ARE COMMON IN AREAS NOT STABILIZED BY RECENT CONVECTION.  DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR THROUGH BUOYANT LAYER STRENGTHENS WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG
   MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING FROM APPROXIMATELY 35 KT AROUND
   HOU TO OVER 60 KT NEAR VCT.  THIS INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR ANY NEW
   DEVELOPMENT OVER TX COASTAL PLAIN TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE
   LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL.
   
   PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA NOW UNDER WW 253 EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
   S-CENTRAL/SERN LA WILL BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW. BESIDES MCS
   SPREADING ACROSS SRN PORTION WW 253...ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS
   DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED QUICKLY OVER TERREBONNE COUNTY ALONG
   BOUNDARY BETWEEN OUTFLOW-OVERTURNED AIR INLAND...AND MARINE AIR MASS
   ADVECTING INLAND FROM GULF.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS ASSOCIATED
   WITH MARINE BOUNDARY WITHIN ABOUT 50 NM OF COAST SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL DESPITE MRGL MIDLEVEL WINDS. LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS
   ALONG/S OF THAT BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTE TO SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WITH
   MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
   28859756 29399772 29979760 30359692 31399475 31469237
   29829039 29279019 29089054 29459212 28989514 28639650

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0667
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254...
   
   VALID 261105Z - 261200Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING ACROSS WW AREA.  SOME OR ALL OF
   WW MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE SCHEDULED 12Z EXPIRATION...OTHERWISE WW
   WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT FURTHER ISSUANCE.
   
   VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATES SUBTLE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   SPEED MAX CLOSELY CORRESPONDS TO WRN EDGE OF MOST CONCENTRATED
   PRECIP...AND IS APCHG SABINE RIVER ATTM.
   MEANWHILE...STABLE/POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
   ACROSS REGION. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED/DEVELOPED EWD
   ACROSS LA...OUT OF AREA OF OPTIMAL COMBINED INSTABILITY/SHEAR
   PROFILES THAT STILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS S TX...BASED ON MODIFIED
   RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  ELEVATED BUOYANCY REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER
   REGION...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY STRENGTHENS WITH WWD EXTENT.
   OCCASIONAL TSTM FORMATION AND POTENTIAL FOR MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
   LINGER WELL N OF FRONT...GENERALLY E OF I-45 AND NEAR NRN EDGE OF
   ORIGINAL WW.  HOWEVER...APPARENT LACK OF ELEVATED ASCENT BEHIND
   MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION INDICATES LOW PROBABILITY FOR
   ADDITIONAL/ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT BEFORE WW EXPIRES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   30889623 30919564 31369494 30749461 29869436 29859493
   30099510 30019530 30099550 30079581 30209584 30219612
   30409610

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1004 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA INTO WRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261504Z - 261630Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  A WW
   LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
   PERHAPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.  THIS IS PROBABLY
   LARGELY DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING...BUT STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE
   ALOFT...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WILL COME OF
   INCREASING INFLUENCE THROUGH MID DAY.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
   16-18Z...ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WESTERN SOUTH
   CAROLINA...WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
   WITH INSOLATION.  MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1500
   J/KG...IN FAVORABLY SHEARED REGIME BENEATH 40+ KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST BRIEF MID-LEVEL
   UPDRAFT ROTATION.  LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT THOUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
   INCREASES TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST LATER ON.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
   34428359 34598298 35058181 34748066 34018069 33238239
   33338323 33888408 34198424

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0669
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1102 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261602Z - 261730Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS OVERSPREAD
   MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE
   WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH STRONGEST PORTION SURGING SOUTHEAST
   OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.  HOWEVER...MORE VIGOROUS CLUSTER OF STORMS
   ...NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF MOBILE...REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
   COASTAL AREAS...AND APPEARS SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
   IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER MID/UPPER STREAM OF FLOW ALONG GULF
   COASTAL AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
   EAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME.
   
   SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/EASTERN PANHANDLE...
   INCLUDING THE TALLAHASSEE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF AN OLD CONVECTIVE
   BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS THROUGH THE VALDOSTA/SAVANNAH GEORGIA AREAS
   ...ARE AROUND 70F.  THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO  MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
   1000 TO 2000 WITH INSOLATION...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS.
   
   HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AIR /AROUND 2 INCHES/ FEEDING INTO
   CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT LOW HUMIDITIES AT
   MID LEVELS WILL ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS...AND
   ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT COLD POOLS APPEAR POSSIBLE.  MODELS SUGGEST
   THAT A WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS NORTHERN
   FLORIDA WITH APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE.  AS THIS OCCURS...FORWARD
   PROPAGATION OF ANY COLD POOLS WILL BE ENHANCED...ALONG WITH RISK OF
   DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS SEEMS POSSIBLE NEAR/EAST OF TALLAHASSEE
   THROUGH THE JACKSONVILLE AREAS DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   31708067 30498072 30038121 29678215 29088320 28798544
   29968549 30878492 31298410 31258269 31638168 31838116

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 PM CDT WED APR 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255...
   
   VALID 261816Z - 261945Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.
   
   SCATTERED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING FROM THE LEE OF
   THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.  THIS IS
   GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE
   SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF COLUMBIA INTO THE
   VICINITY OF MYRTLE BEACH.  WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR COLUMBIA IS
   PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
   CONSOLIDATION OF ACTIVITY INTO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
   APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT THROUGH
   21Z.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW
   IS ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG.  AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO INGEST THIS
   AIR MASS...INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS IN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
   FOR SUPERCELLS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
   NEAR COLUMBIA. THROUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE GENERALLY
   SMALL/WEAK...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...BEFORE DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT INCREASES TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   34098097 34238061 33737979 33527977 33008017 33168082
   33258133 33238174 33888237 34008182

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0671
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 PM CDT WED APR 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MS/MOST OF AL/FAR NW GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261905Z - 262100Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL MOVE EWD FROM NRN AL TOWARDS WW
   255. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FURTHER S ALONG COLD FRONT
   ACROSS ERN MS INTO CNTRL/SRN AL. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL
   LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   A SMALL AREA OF CLEARING BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF
   SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AL. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 500 TO 800
   J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY
   LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   
   FURTHER S INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MS AND CNTRL/SRN AL...ADDITIONAL
   DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE NEAR TERM WITH CONVECTIVE
   DEBRIS FROM GULF COAST MCS MOVING E OF AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
   MLCAPES TO REACH AROUND 500 J/KG. WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD
   FRONT...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING
   EFFECTS OF THE MORNING MCS WILL KEEP MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   INTACT AND MITIGATE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
   
   31718980 33208837 34298703 35018590 34908455 34218453
   33368504 32068634 31188744 31238901

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 PM CDT WED APR 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW GA...NE FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261938Z - 262115Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW 255 SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED...
   LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE.  AN
   ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED.
   
   LATEST RUC SUGGESTS 30 TO 35 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE
   DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
   MUCH AS EARLIER PROGGED BY NAM/GFS.  THIS SEEMS TO BE ENHANCING
   EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL
   WHICH IS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ALBANY/VALDOSTA/TALLAHASSEE AREAS.
   
   DIVERGENT WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF COLD POOL IS LIMITING
   STRENGTH OF UPLIFT ALONG GUST FRONT...WHICH LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE
   EVOLUTION OF A LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  MOST SIGNIFICANT
   CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH/EAST OF
   BRUNSWICK INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL NEW
   VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE...AS GUST
   FRONT PROGRESSES INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE.
    THIS IS WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEPEST...PROVIDING A
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   31678271 31808224 31798148 31068110 30348114 29648199
   29228290 29098371 29148439 29798411 30218335

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 AM CDT THU APR 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...METROPOLITAN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 271520Z - 271715Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   INCREASING...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG WEAK
   SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
   FLORIDA PENINSULA.  INHIBITION IS WEAKENING WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING...AND MID-LEVEL COOLING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEASTERN
   U.S. UPPER TROUGH.  THUS...INTENSIFYING STORMS APPEAR LIKELY INTO
   EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG SUPPORTIVE
   OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. 
   
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS...AS CYCLONIC
   MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT THROUGH THE 18-19Z
   TIME FRAME...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR
   SUPERCELLS.  LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN... OVER
   INLAND AREAS ANYWAY.  BUT...INTERSECTION OF SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WITH
   SEA BREEZE...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN NEAR IMMEDIATE COASTAL
   AREAS...SEEMS MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
   THIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF PALM BEACH THROUGH THE FORT
   LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI AREAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BECOME
   FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WATERSPOUT.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...
   
   26038056 26328025 26517985 26037982 25578015 25518039
   25628068 25848087 25938070

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 PM CDT THU APR 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 272157Z - 272330Z
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS ERN NM INTO WEST
   TX.  WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF UPWARD TRENDS CONTINUE...
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
   OF THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR RTN...SWD TO NEAR GDP IN WEST
   TX.  THE MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER NERN NM AT THIS
   TIME WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW APPEARS TO BE GREATEST.  FARTHER
   SOUTH...STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   WHERE THICKENING/DEEPENING HIGH BASED CU WILL SOON RESULT IN
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN
   ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND WITH TIME THIS SHOULD
   OCCUR AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GRADUALLY ADVECTS NWWD ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS.  21Z SOUNDING FROM MAF SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER...BUT RATHER MOVE OFF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD WEST TX LATER THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   31120393 33730515 35880470 35990299 33670299 31480239