Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[WeatherEmperor]

Needs to take a HUGE jog west to make the next forecast point. A nice NW motion right now. Could hit the Channel after all.

I agree. I am sorta noticing that too.

<RICKY>

I see that to i think that GFDL model was a mistake...LOL!

yeah. I have no idea what prompted the GFDL to do what it did. Your guess is as good as mine. I guess we will just have to wait about another hour or so to see the 18Z GFDL and see what it does then.

<RICKY>

[terpfan]

Millenium Weather - Gary Gray's Analysis

He doesn't seem too concerned about the recent model divergence producing a radically changed outcome with respect Wilma's impact on South Florida.

Link is here (click foecasts, then click model and forecast discussion):

http://millenniumweather.com/tropical/index.html

[feederband]

On this loop you can see that it is starting a wnw/nw movement...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... 4_loop.php

[ronjon]

The last 3 hour loop shows a solid NW movement - just as most models have predicted. I expect this storm to pretty much follow the synoptic pattern with movement through the YUC Channel and curving toward the NE for an impact somewhere between the Keys and Tampa. There has been absolutely nothing to change the forecast reasoning today. We will begin to narrow landfall predictions with good certainty tomorrow. Like I said earlier, one odd model run with no other globals following it, no worries - I dont buy the slowing down either - not with a fairly strong trough picking this storm up.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[mike815]

i totally agree with that. I see this motion as well.

[Foladar0]

How are these new models and/or the current track in regards to Homestead / Florida City? Someone told me that they heard we would have to evacuate but that doesn't make too much sense. Soooo confused.

Well the 18z GFS takes it right over you as a major hurricane.

Well that certainly doesn't sound good.
Major hurricane as in like cat 3?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I also see that motion...

[Foladar0]

I haven't heard anything for this area yet Foladar. I know that they're planning on the mandatory evacs for the Keys at some point tomorrow. I think that Miami-Dade EOC is just waiting until there's a little more confidence where Wilma is going first, because as the NBC met said, people "don't know where to evacuate to" at this point. Smart in my opinion.

Yeah, they mentioned Noon for the Keys, I live just north of that (Florida City, where the road comes out of the Keys) .. but I don't really have much to go, just curious what to expect.

[Brent]

How are these new models and/or the current track in regards to Homestead / Florida City? Someone told me that they heard we would have to evacuate but that doesn't make too much sense. Soooo confused.

Well the 18z GFS takes it right over you as a major hurricane.

Well that certainly doesn't sound good.
Major hurricane as in like cat 3?

I can't tell. All I can see is a low with a ton of rain. It's impossible to see the pressure.

It doesn't go over much land though(outside of the Keys and the nothing Everglades) so it will probably show up as a Cat 3.

[tampaflwx]

I posted this in the cone of death and general mayhem thread, but i think it's also very relevant as of right now in this thread...


If you look at the official NHC 5-day forecasts for Katrina and Rita several days before landfall (look at around 4pm Wednesday for Rita and around 5am Friday for Katrina), these are similar time frames from landfall to what we are at currently with Wilma. (in fact, the 4pm setup with Rita could be exactly the same if Wilma strikes the US on saturday morning/afternoon). If you look closely, you will notice that in each of these forecasts, the actual landfall is at the extreme outer section of the cone. Katrina shifted much more west than expected, and Rita much more east.

Keeping Charley in mind from last year as another reference, it would seem likely if not expected to see a large shift in most of the models starting right now. My intuition tells me that the models will take a more northern component considering that they will notice the weakness in the trough that is currently expected to be very strong in guiding Wilma. In addition, we are already seeing the storm employ a more westerly movement towards the Yucatan, indicating a broader arc and therefore more northerly landfall on Florida. This viable shift in models certainly warrants consideration and could impact the Tampa region more directly, IMHO.

[melhow]

From Don Southerland on the pro met forum:

Just a quick note:

The 18z GFS has returned to a solution that resembles earlier solutions. Hence, at this point in time, I'm inclined to believe that the 12z run might have been bad. How the 0z run fares could be revealing.

Therefore, I will leave my storm track as it stands right now.

Estimated Track:
17.5N 83.3W; Actual: 17.5N 83.5W; Error: 13 miles--2.5 hours in advance
20.0N 85.9W
22.5N 85.6W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.2W
30.0N 77.5W
32.5N 75.0W
35.0N 73.0W
37.5N 71.0W
40.0N 69.0W

Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at U.S. Landfall: 115 mph

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=76779&start=40

[JTD]

OK....Why did the NHC jump all over one model run and kind of hint that Florida might be in the clear when the new models seem to be going back to a S. Fla landfall?

Did they do that. It seemed that way to me but I'm tired after being up until 12:30 last night

[Myersgirl]

OK....Why did the NHC jump all over one model run and kind of hint that Florida might be in the clear when the new models seem to be going back to a S. Fla landfall?

Did they do that. It seemed that way to me but I'm tired after being up until 12:30 last night

I don't think they jumped all over anything, more of anknowledgement of the new models

[thunderchief]

they said the models might require a change of forecast but left their forecast track unchanged pending more models.

The NHC rarely changes their forecast based on 1 model timegroup.

[ronjon]

OK....Why did the NHC jump all over one model run and kind of hint that Florida might be in the clear when the new models seem to be going back to a S. Fla landfall?

Did they do that. It seemed that way to me but I'm tired after being up until 12:30 last night

I thought the 12Z GFDL run was highlighted way too much in the 5 PM NHC Disc. I honestly believe they are on "pins & needles" there (& who wouldn't be after seeing a storm go from 100 to 175 mph overnight!). sometimes its better to say nothing & take a wait and see approach - especially without other model guidance that even hinted at a major change - usually the NHC is good at that, but hey, they seem a little spooked today.

[jkt21787]

The NHC rarely changes their forecast based on 1 model timegroup.

The only time I recall them ever doing it was during Katrina when everything shifted to NOLA. No doubt they made the right call there...

[Flakeys]

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ANNOUNCE
TIMETABLE FOR FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENT EVACUATIONS

Monroe County Emergency Management officials have firmed up the evacuation timetable for residents of the Florida Keys due to Hurricane Wilma.

From now, to noon Thursday, a voluntary evacuation is in effect for all Florida Keys residents.

Thursday's mandatory evacuations are as follows:
6 a.m., Thursday: Mandatory evacuation for all mobile home dwellers and special needs clients.

Noon, Thursday: Mandatory evacuation for all residents living from the Seven Mile Bridge through Key West. This includes the entire Lower Keys and Key West.

3 p.m., Thursday: Mandatory evacuation for all residents living from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Long Key Bridge. This includes Marathon and the remainder of the Middle Keys.

6 p.m., Thursday: Mandatory evacuation for all residents living from the Long Key Bridge through Ocean Reef and to Florida City and mainland Monroe County. This includes Ocean Reef, Key Largo, Islamorada and Flamingo.

A visitor and non-resident evacuation began Wednesday at noon and continues.

A mandatory evacuation for all boat live-aboards began at noon Wednesday and continues. All recreational vehicles were ordered out of the Keys at this time.
Officials said gasoline supply were plentiful throughout the Keys.

Officials plan to open the shelter at Florida International University on Thursday to accept resident evacuees.

Evacuating residents are urged to seek shelter north of Orlando if they chose not to stay at the designated shelter at FIU.

In order to assure the planned evacuation goes smoothly, tolls have been lifted on Card Sound Road in the Upper Keys, the drawbridges at Snake Creek and Jewfish Creek will be locked in the down position at noon on Thursday and Sheriff's deputies will be stationed at key traffic lights throughout the Keys in order to assist with traffic control.

Emergency management officials also say that residents who plan to evacuate should consider leaving as soon as possible once they have secured their property. Officials anticipate heavy traffic on the highways throughout south Florida as Hurricane Wilma approaches.
Emergency management officials do not plan on opening shelters in the Keys.

Schools and all county offices in the Keys are closed Thursday and Friday. Monroe County courts are closed Thursday, Friday and Monday.

County officials are arranging bus transportation to the FIU shelter for those residents without appropriate transportation. The locations and times of the pickup locations throughout the Keys will be announced Thursday morning
Additional Information and Resources:
Monroe County Emergency Information: 1-800-955-5504
Monroe County Situation Report: http://www.monroecounty-fl.gov
National Hurricane Center Web site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Monroe County Sheriff's Office: http://www.keysso.net
County Public Access Television: Channel 76 on cable

[6SpeedTA95]

You guys have a link for some of the models? The only one I visit frequently is the one on weatherunderground, but if you guys have recommendations or sites I'd like to check them out

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It fall from 982 at 5am 18th to 884 millibars at 5am 19th...98 millibars drop for 24 hours.

Or 980 millibars at 8am 18th to 882 millibars 8am this morning....


Forest almost got his big in handed to him.

[Brent]

You guys have a link for some of the models? The only one I visit frequently is the one on weatherunderground, but if you guys have recommendations or sites I'd like to check them out

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_24.gif

Updates immediately.