Charley Advisories

[weatherlover427]

Nice to see that 5 page long thread about the ECMWF taking Charley into Texas will be put to rest.

I agree with you on this one. I thought it was absurd to begin with.

[KBBOCA]

a GREAT source for reports from the islands is the StormCarib site.

http://stormcarib.com/

So far Jamaica seems to have gotten off relatively lightly, but it seems that some of the heavier weather came quite late in the day, so morning will probably bring more accurate news. So far it's looking like someone's prayers for Jamaica to be spared were answered!

[dixiebreeze]

slowly up the west coast of Florida:


West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
256 am EDT Thursday Aug 12 2004

Short term (today-sat)...all eyes focused on Hurricane Charley
forecast to move north northeast across the Florida peninsula Friday
and Friday night. However...the exact path still remains uncertain
with latest models taking center a little further west and slower up
the West Coast of Florida. Therefore...all residents of west central
and southwest Florida need to keep abreast of the latest advisories
and statements.

For today and tonight...unusually deep eastern U.S. Trough for this
time of year will take Tropical Storm Bonnie rapidly northeast across
the Florida Panhandle today bringing an increase in moisture to the
nature coast. Will continue with likely probability of precipitation for the north and
scattered probability of precipitation elsewhere for today. By late tonight Charley is
forecast to be moving north across the southeast Gulf of Mexico with
first bands of rain moving into southern areas and will leave likely
probability of precipitation for here and scattered elsewhere.

Friday and Friday night...latest TPC forecast takes Charley north
northeast across the peninsula at this time. Primary hazards
continue to be wind and surge (highest south and east of where it
eventually makes landfall) with rainfall a little less thanks to the
rather fast forecast movement which should keep storm total rainfall
amounts generally between 4 and 6 inches. However...ground in many
areas is already saturated and it won't take to much to cause
flooding problems. Will hold off on issuance of Flood Watch at this
time since exact path of Charley still uncertain. In general plan to
stay close to ongoing package and will highlight tropical storm or
hurricane conditions for most zones for Friday. For more information
on this system...see the latest advisories being issued by the
National Hurricane Center.

For Saturday...deep eastern U.S. Trough will remain in place with
south to southwest flow and plume of deep moisture lingering behind
storm. Will continue with likely probability of precipitation in the morning diminishing to
scattered in the afternoon.

Long term (sat ngt-wed)...upper level troughiness to persist across
the eastern U.S. As a upper ridge builds southwest over Florida and the
Gulf. At the surface...a trough over North Florida and the eastern Gulf
will slide west as an inverted trough while the Bermuda high builds
in with an easterly flow. The upper ridge will help to keep probability of precipitation
slightly below normal...Middle Range scattered in the afternoons and
isolated morning and evening. Temperatures will be near climatology with
near 90 coast and lower 90s inland for maxes and mins from near 70 to
the middle 70s.


&&


Marine...latest official TPC track of Bonnie continues to keep
highest wind/seas just to the north and west of our forecast area.
Will continue to depict winds increasing close to 20 knots with
building seas. Elsewhere...generally southerly winds will begin to
increase as gradient tightens a bit. For Thursday night into
Friday have incorporated latest tcm winds and continued with seas
above 12 feet during Friday for mainly southern waters. Saturday
into early next week...winds and seas will subside as Charley moves
away with no flags anticipated at this time. All mariners should
continue to monitor the latest forecasts and advisories on Bonnie
and Charley.

[southerngale]

You're right KBBOCA...great site! I'm reading reports from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands right now. Thanks!

[Anonymous]

Im thinking that the NHC track is too far east, because Charlie has still shown no indication of a NW turn.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Derecho]

Im thinking that the NHC track is too far east, because Charlie has still shown no indication of a NW turn.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Recon motion from the last 3 VORTEXes has been about 305 degrees; Due NW is 315.....it's very close to NW.

And on satellite, frankly, to me, it looks like actual NW since the last Vortex.

[Thunder44]

Just got 988 mb with this system. 98 kt winds with this at flight level and this system could begin a very rapid intensifying phase here this morning. The potential of 100 mph winds at 5 am seems pretty accurate. This is a very dangerous situation for the western Caribbean and eventually for Florida's peninsula!!!

Jim

I don't think they will raise up to 100mph at the 5am advisory. Maybe 90 to 95 mph. They really seem to be conservative on the winds with this storm.

[Matthew5]

Wow look at it wrap up it is bombing! A small eye appears to have started!

[Thunder44]

I believe it's going to go on the path the hurricane center is forecasting. It's already starting making it's turn.

[vbhoutex]

If I knew asking questions would result in a moderator requesting that we move on, I would have not asked the questions in the first place.

Think about it before you make assumptions such as this. The response was made wrt you and DT starting to fight about anything except the original subject which was where could Charley go. There is not a moderator on this site that will say that just because you asked a question. Did you notice the thread came back on subject after the bickering stopped? We always ENCOURAGE questions being asked as long as they pertain to the subject matter at hand and not you said/I said about something other than the original subject.

[drudd1]

I have to agree. Up till now, Charley has been pretty well behaved.

[Anonymous]

I think itll go more west than the track, it seems itll pass JUST south (Or right over) of the southernmost cayman island. The track has it going between the two.

[bahamaswx]

90mph if they note any strengthening at all. He's definitely not worthy of 100mph.

[Stormsfury]

and not much change in forecast track ...

WTNT23 KNHC 120852
TCMAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
0900Z THU AUG 12 2004

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND
FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA
BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF BONITA
BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 79.9W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 50SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 79.9W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 79.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.3N 81.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.3N 82.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.3N 83.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 30.5N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 40.0N 76.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 46.5N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 79.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Anonymous]

Good for my sakes, its finally starting to turn hopefully.

[bahamaswx]

...Hurricane warnings issued for portions of Florida Keys and
southwest Florida coast...


At 5 am EDT...0900z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the
Florida Keys from the Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile bridge...and
for the southwest Florida coast from East Cape Sable to Bonita
Beach. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.



At 5 am EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the
Seven Mile bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay.



At 5 am EDT...a Hurricane Watch has been issued from north of Bonita
Beach to Tarpon Springs. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.



A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.



A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the following provinces of
western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...
Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth. This watch will probably be
changed to a Hurricane Warning this morning.



At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 18.6 north... longitude 79.9 west or about 100
miles... 155 km... east-southeast of Grand Cayman.



Charley is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph
...26 km/hr. A turn to the north-northwest is expected over the
next 24 hours.



Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph...140 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.



Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.



Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb...29.12 inches.



Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are expected in the Cayman Islands later this
morning. Storm surge flooding of 2-4 feet can be expected in the
Florida Keys. Storm surge flooding of 6 to 10 feet are possible
along the southwest Florida coast.



Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides.



Repeating the 5 am EDT position...18.6 N... 79.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 986 mb.



For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.



An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.



Forecaster Franklin

[bahamaswx]

Damn my slow dialup.

[Stormsfury]

Damn my slow dialup.

LOL

[Stormsfury]

there has been a leftward shift in much of the track guidance this
morning...with the UKMET and the GFDL showing the greatest change.
Dropsonde data from the G-IV mission last night showed a little
more ridging over western Cuba and this may have been responsible
for the shift. I do not want to make any radical change to the
track until this trend can be confirmed...and the official track
has been shifted just a little to the left for this advisory. Most
of the guidance currently shows a landfall from the Tampa area
northward through The Big Bend area. Because Charley is expected to
approach the west coast of Florida coast at a sharply oblique
angle...it is unusually difficult to pinpoint Charley's
landfall...as small errors in the track forecast would correspond
to large errors in the location and timing of landfall.
Reconnaissance data indicate that Charley strengthened
overnight...with peak flight-level winds of just under 100 kt.
Both the SHIPS and GFDL guidance indicate that Charley should
continue to strengthen. Currently an upper-level low to the west
of the cyclone is limiting outflow in that quadrant...but this may
become less of a factor when Charley enters the Gulf. The official
forecast takes Charley to just shy of major hurricane status...but
it could just as easily reach that threshold prior to landfall.
Should this occur the potential for extremely dangerous storm surge
exists.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/0900z 18.6n 79.9w 75 kt
12hr VT 12/1800z 20.3n 81.3w 85 kt
24hr VT 13/0600z 23.3n 82.5w 85 kt
36hr VT 13/1800z 26.3n 83.0w 95 kt
48hr VT 14/0600z 30.5n 82.0w 60 kt...inland
72hr VT 15/0600z 40.0n 76.0w 35 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 16/0600z 46.5n 67.0w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 17/0600z...absorbed


$$

[Stormsfury]