Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[cpdaman]

well i go away for 24 hours

because i didn't want to watch a day of "it's dead" posts

and guess what nearly everyone thinks it's dead from ALL the 20 pages i went through

but wasn't it forecast to just start getting together late tonite/tommorrow

put my money down for development

i turned the weather channel on twice today and on both intro's they were talking about it, (didn't catch the tropic. update) but it's on their mind, and accuweather's mind) wait till fri nite b-4 killing it off.

[storms in NC]

No it has been very warm here.

And it does seem to have move more to the west.

[Stormcenter]

Wow 63 pages for an invest and still nothing but a sheared disturbance or whatever you
want to call it.

Well the NHC still gives it hope so I will too.

[fasterdisaster]

well i go away for 24 hours

because i didn't want to watch a day of "it's dead" posts

and guess what nearly everyone thinks it's dead from ALL the 20 pages i went through

but wasn't it forecast to just start getting together late tonite/tommorrow

put my money down for development

i turned the weather channel on twice today and on both intro's they were talking about it, (didn't catch the tropic. update) but it's on their mind, and accuweather's mind) wait till fri nite b-4 killing it off.

I agree, but I'm not putting money down yet, I'd say it's a 50/50 chance here of whether or not it develops, up from 35 percent yesterday but down from 65 percent on Tuesday.

[hial2]

From watching the NW Atl rainbow loop, if this gets going now, looks like it would head for Daytona Beach. Looks to me like lots of sinking air coming in. The center would have to get down into the tropical air.
Is it getting cool up in NC and thereabouts?

I can tell you that in Indian Trail (@ Charlotte) is NOT cool..funny thing is that after Miami's heat/humidity,it's not really bad..the locals are broiling..
If it only rain so the developers can sod my yard!!

[HURAKAN]

Wow 63 pages for an invest and still nothing but a sheared disturbance or whatever you
want to call it.

Well the NHC still gives it hope so I will too.

If I have to pick between this and nothing, or this and a TW coming out of Africa, I'll pick 99L without even thinking.

We get surprised when a disturbance with a high potential to develop is ripped apart by shear and/or dry air. What happens after it does so? People go away and leave the system behind. My question then is, what did we learn from this? For many the answer is nothing because they didn't take the time to continue folowing the system to see what was affecting it, what caused it's demise. If we study closely this cases in the future this may help to identify this cases before they happen. Of course, it's so nice to always have a hurricane to look to in the satellite images.

[Recurve]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If...if...it got going in this area, I don't like where it's going, if I'm reading it right. Look at 850-500 steering too. I have no idea about development. But I see a crazy track toward Daytona then down to Dade then across Florida Bay, then getting lifted by a probable trought and recurving in the Gulf. Possibly three FL landfalls. I know it's contrary to all the Carolinas guidance and analysis here, but I have to consider it possible seeing the steering and considering what happens to a storm west of Florida if a strong high builds in.

But it also looks like it could get blown to a wisp heading off to the British Isles.

[ConvergenceZone]

well i go away for 24 hours

because i didn't want to watch a day of "it's dead" posts

and guess what nearly everyone thinks it's dead from ALL the 20 pages i went through

but wasn't it forecast to just start getting together late tonite/tommorrow

put my money down for development

i turned the weather channel on twice today and on both intro's they were talking about it, (didn't catch the tropic. update) but it's on their mind, and accuweather's mind) wait till fri nite b-4 killing it off.

sorry dude, but it's dead, even the METs here are saying that..It can't get together if there's nothing left to get together and it's running out of time anyway to become anything by the time it reaches the coast. don't waste your time with this one.

[txwatcher91]

well i go away for 24 hours

because i didn't want to watch a day of "it's dead" posts

and guess what nearly everyone thinks it's dead from ALL the 20 pages i went through

but wasn't it forecast to just start getting together late tonite/tommorrow

put my money down for development

i turned the weather channel on twice today and on both intro's they were talking about it, (didn't catch the tropic. update) but it's on their mind, and accuweather's mind) wait till fri nite b-4 killing it off.

sorry dude, but it's dead, even the METs here are saying that..It can't get together if there's nothing left to get together and it's running out of time anyway to become anything by the time it reaches the coast. don't waste your time with this one.

I hate to disagree with you, but since the LLC is still intact and convection is blowing up over the center, it is not dead. The fact that shear is lessening is also helping this system. Anyway, most models did not have it doing much until Friday.

[Recurve]

It is so hard to give up on a nearly naked swirl. It's so....enticing.

[ronjon]

Ok, is it time for the Star Trek "It's Dead Jim"? I will personally give it to tomorrow morning. If this doesn't develop this classifies as the biggest model bust of modern history.

[hial2]

It is so hard to give up on a nearly naked swirl. It's so....enticing.

Cold showers help....

[Wthrman13]

sorry dude, but it's dead, even the METs here are saying that..It can't get together if there's nothing left to get together and it's running out of time anyway to become anything by the time it reaches the coast. don't waste your time with this one.

Well, I can't speak for the other mets, but I for one don't think it's quite done yet. Don't get me wrong, it is definitely not developing right now, but it still has a significant low-level circulation, and shear does appear to be decreasing. As is typical, the models decreased the shear and weakened the UL over the system too rapidly. I admit, I didn't expect the poor conditions to persist this long, and it's definitely possible that the system will dissipate.

[Recurve]

Cold showers help....

Since there's not much to talk about, pardon my HA!
That was funny.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Bane]

From watching the NW Atl rainbow loop, if this gets going now, looks like it would head for Daytona Beach. Looks to me like lots of sinking air coming in. The center would have to get down into the tropical air.
Is it getting cool up in NC and thereabouts?

The ABOVE post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

no, it was 90 degrees today.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Extremecane]

looks like finally a thunderstorm formed over the LLC, wait and see if it does anything

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

A NON-TROPICAL 1009 MB LOW ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
AT 28N70W REMAINS DISORGANIZED. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N76W. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW
IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY AT THIS TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
28N-31N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS.

[cpdaman]

i think the low part of the trough may be starting to wash out

shear lessening anyone

t-storms near llC not getting blown off