Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[MiamiensisWx]

We finished our preparations in May and June. We have several canned soups, several large water containers, and batteries (in addition to First Aid). This event shouldn't be a problem if you were prudent prior to June 1. I'm closely monitoring Noel. I must admit that my forecasts have busted with respect to dissipation over Hispaniola and no United States threat. We all learn.

[Vortex]

As of 2115utc Visible indicated convection firing right over the center....Would not be surprised at all to see this become a minimal cat1

[ExBailbonds]

I would add to the prep list in south florida with Securing light weight items that might fly.

[hial2]

Come to papa..

Cute Aqua. I am moving to NY at the end of November! Noel will be my last storm.

Yep, from a tropical cyclone to a noreaster...You seem to blow hot and cold...

[tracyswfla]

Come to papa..

Cute Aqua. I am moving to NY at the end of November! Noel will be my last storm.

Yep, from a tropical cyclone to a noreaster...You seem to blow hot and cold...

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Noel loves diurnal minimum.

[NcentralFlaguy]

It does appear to be getting better organized, my forecast busted too.

[Blown Away]

At 15mph, Noel will cover at least 300 miles of longitude moving NW. So in 24 hours Noel is going to be near the SFL coast (80W) at that rate. Noel is going to have to slow down to miss SFL, NHC has Noel east of WPB Wednesday evening, 48 hours from now.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 21:15 UTC or 5:15 PM EDT:

[Typhoon_Willie]

High wind watch and a coastal flood advisory for Palm Beach County right now.

[jlauderdal]

High wind watch and a coastal flood advisory for Palm Beach County right now.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
537 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-301000-
/O.NEW.KMFL.HW.A.0001.071031T0000Z-071101T0000Z/
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-
INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAHOKEE...SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...
WEST PALM BEACH...MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...COCONUT CREEK...
FORT LAUDERDALE...HOLLYWOOD...PEMBROKE PINES...SHARK VALLEY...
MIAMI...JUPITER...PALM BEACH...BOCA RATON...POMPANO BEACH...
FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...HOLLYWOOD BEACH...AVENTURA...
MIAMI BEACH...CORAL GABLES...CUTLER BAY...HOMESTEAD...
FLORIDA CITY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK
537 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACKS NOEL ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. EVEN IF NOEL STAYS ON THIS PROJECTED PATH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AFFECTING PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS MAY NOT DIRECTLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

$$

GREGORIA

[Canelaw99]

High wind watch for palm beach, dade, and broward through Wed. eve (jlaud - ya beat me to it)

We had gusts at 32mph here in Homestead today with sustained winds about 23mph....(so says channel 4)

[NcentralFlaguy]

On its current heading I wouldnt be suprised to see some TS watches for some portion of the SE Florida coast at 11pm, 5am at the latest

[destruction92]

For people in SoFL, I would not be too concerned. Noel looks pretty weak on satellite representation and the NHC forecast discussion mentions that in a day or two conditions will not be favorable for intensification because of wind shear....in fact, only "modest" strengthening should occur if any at all.

"MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER
AS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL."

This should also only be a tropical storm...so not much to worry about except beneficial rain for Lake Okeechobee IMO.

[tracyswfla]

For people in SoFL, I would not be too concerned. Noel looks pretty weak on satellite representation and the NHC forecast discussion mentions that in a day or two conditions will not be favorable for intensification because of wind shear....in fact, only "modest" strengthening should occur if any at all.

"MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER
AS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL."

This should also only be a tropical storm...so not much to worry about except beneficial rain for Lake Okeechobee IMO.

where is your disclaimer? you are making a forecast!~

[destruction92]

For people in SoFL, I would not be too concerned. Noel looks pretty weak on satellite representation and the NHC forecast discussion mentions that in a day or two conditions will not be favorable for intensification because of wind shear....in fact, only "modest" strengthening should occur if any at all.

"MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER
AS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL."

This should also only be a tropical storm...so not much to worry about except beneficial rain for Lake Okeechobee IMO.

where is your disclaimer? you are making a forecast!~

I am not the one making this forecast...the NHC is on this one. Read the quotes or visit the link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2059.shtml

It is the NHC'S OPINION or INFORMED OPINION that Noel should stay below hurricane status according to the 5PM forecast...it could change though, but I am seeing what they are forecasting in the here and now.

[ExBailbonds]

For people in SoFL, I would not be too concerned. Noel looks pretty weak on satellite representation and the NHC forecast discussion mentions that in a day or two conditions will not be favorable for intensification because of wind shear....in fact, only "modest" strengthening should occur if any at all.

"MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER
AS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL."

This should also only be a tropical storm...so not much to worry about except beneficial rain for Lake Okeechobee IMO.

I would say that it is better to be prepared than not so basic precautions should be taken. I will prepare for a minimal cane and hope that we just get a tropical Storm. How would you feel if you are wrong and it intensifies into a cane?

[Cyclenall]

For people in SoFL, I would not be too concerned. Noel looks pretty weak on satellite representation and the NHC forecast discussion mentions that in a day or two conditions will not be favorable for intensification because of wind shear....in fact, only "modest" strengthening should occur if any at all.

"MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER
AS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL."

This should also only be a tropical storm...so not much to worry about except beneficial rain for Lake Okeechobee IMO.

It looks like it's getting better organized by the hour to me. If the wind shear was to unexpectedly disappear, then the strength of the TC could be a lot higher without much warning.

[canegrl04]

The EURO latest run takes Noel very close to SFL. People of this area should keep an eye on it.The EURO is a good model

[fci]

We finished our preparations in May and June. We have several canned soups, several large water containers, and batteries (in addition to First Aid). This event shouldn't be a problem if you were prudent prior to June 1. I'm closely monitoring Noel. I must admit that my forecasts have busted with respect to dissipation over Hispaniola and no United States threat. We all learn.

I have been harrassing you a bit; however you and many others have busted on this one.
This is not unprecedented as Ernesto showed us last year.
Keep analyzing Daniel.
I don't even know what lessons can be learned when they do unpredictable things like reform well West of where it is expected.