ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[brunota2003]

I do not know what the Dvorak is looking at, then. I thought that was about the location, but wasn't sure (was looking at the big image, with only the 10's on it).

[mattpetre]

So... does wxman57 just make the dead statement and then never return to the thread, no matter what the possible storm does? This thing is more than meets the eye. The wave behind it will still refire, but 94L will be the real show before things are over. Shear in the Caribbean will continue to lessen and 94L may very well fire back up into a real contender. Just my meager opinion. BTW, It's dead jimmy posts are just as liable to cause problems as it's bombing jim posts. Shouldn't we gripe about disclaimers then too?

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

So... does wxman57 just make the dead statement and then never return to the thread, no matter what the possible storm does? This thing is more than meets the eye. The wave behind it will still refire, but 94L will be the real show before things are over. Shear in the Caribbean will continue to lessen and 94L may very well fire back up into a real contender. Just my meager opinion. BTW, It's dead jimmy posts are just as liable to cause problems as it's bombing jim posts. Shouldn't we gripe about disclaimers then too?

Wxman57 is great at explaining what he is thinking and he is not afraid to to make a prediction. If he were here he would answer you, don't include him with those that make one line statements and run.

[NDG]

Look at this 9' waves buoy 41040 is now reporting
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.96 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.03 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.5 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.8 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[MGC]

Having watched the tropics for over 40 years, nothing surprises me. I've seen systems that I've given up for dead suddenly redevelope and I've seen systems that I've thought would develope fizzle. Until 94L evaporates or moves inland the possibility exists that it might develope. Those that claim it is dead are only just speculating. The fact that the NHC has not given up on it yet should speak volumes.....MGC

[Blown Away]

Is it me or is 94L starting to pick up a better cyclonic spin again? Maybe slowing down will help.

[fci]

So... does wxman57 just make the dead statement and then never return to the thread, no matter what the possible storm does? This thing is more than meets the eye. The wave behind it will still refire, but 94L will be the real show before things are over. Shear in the Caribbean will continue to lessen and 94L may very well fire back up into a real contender. Just my meager opinion. BTW, It's dead jimmy posts are just as liable to cause problems as it's bombing jim posts. Shouldn't we gripe about disclaimers then too?

Wxman57 is great at explaining what he is thinking and he is not afraid to to make a prediction. If he were here he would answer you, don't include him with those that make one line statements and run.

I'll pile on here too.
Wxman was very bullish on development of 94L and explained based on his job; why he was in that his company provides guidance to the oil industry so he has to be way ahead of the curve with potential problems.
To his credit, when he determined he was wrong, he quickly revised his stance and told us why.
The "Dead Jim" is about the clearest way he can pronounce, that in his opnion; a system is dead.
I like it and there can be no mistake when paging through a thread where he has made his proclamation.
I think it is funny and not the least bit inappropriate.
Finally, as a Pro Met he needs no disclaimer.
He and Derek provide the most insight on this board and I greatly appreciate and look forward to their analysis. In fact wxman provides more analysis than any other Pro Met that I regularly see on this board!

[Blown Away]

So... does wxman57 just make the dead statement and then never return to the thread, no matter what the possible storm does? This thing is more than meets the eye. The wave behind it will still refire, but 94L will be the real show before things are over. Shear in the Caribbean will continue to lessen and 94L may very well fire back up into a real contender. Just my meager opinion. BTW, It's dead jimmy posts are just as liable to cause problems as it's bombing jim posts. Shouldn't we gripe about disclaimers then too?

Wxman57 is great at explaining what he is thinking and he is not afraid to to make a prediction. If he were here he would answer you, don't include him with those that make one line statements and run.

I'll pile on here too.
Wxman was very bullish on development of 94L and explained based on his job; why he was in that his company provides guidance to the oil industry so he has to be way ahead of the curve with potential problems.
To his credit, when he determined he was wrong, he quickly revised his stance and told us why.
The "Dead Jim" is about the clearest way he can pronounce, that in his opnion; a system is dead.
I like it and there can be no mistake when paging through a thread where he has made his proclamation.
I think it is funny and not the least bit inappropriate.
Finally, as a Pro Met he needs no disclaimer.
He and Derek provide the most insight on this board and I greatly appreciate and look forward to their analysis. In fact wxman provides more analysis than any other Pro Met that I regularly see on this board!

Amen

[weatherSnoop]

Wxman57 has my attention every time he shares his professional insight. It may seem like a hit and run, though I have learned he arises around 4 am. I too would not be hanging around at this hour.

[Bane]

So... does wxman57 just make the dead statement and then never return to the thread, no matter what the possible storm does? This thing is more than meets the eye. The wave behind it will still refire, but 94L will be the real show before things are over. Shear in the Caribbean will continue to lessen and 94L may very well fire back up into a real contender. Just my meager opinion. BTW, It's dead jimmy posts are just as liable to cause problems as it's bombing jim posts. Shouldn't we gripe about disclaimers then too?

i think i'll trust wxman57 a little more. this system looks like crap now and is going to experiencing major shear in the coming days.

[Ivanhater]

convection continues to increase...

[Blown Away]

So... does wxman57 just make the dead statement and then never return to the thread, no matter what the possible storm does? This thing is more than meets the eye. The wave behind it will still refire, but 94L will be the real show before things are over. Shear in the Caribbean will continue to lessen and 94L may very well fire back up into a real contender. Just my meager opinion. BTW, It's dead jimmy posts are just as liable to cause problems as it's bombing jim posts. Shouldn't we gripe about disclaimers then too?

i think i'll trust wxman57 a little more. this system looks like crap now and is going to experiencing major shear in the coming days.

If you saw 94L last night and most of the day, you would think 94L looks great rate now compared to last night. It looks the best it has in the past 24 hours.

[Blown Away]

convection continues to increase...

If 94L starts to build convection on the East side we may have something.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It looks like a convectively active wave being sheared, with losts of mid and high cloud debris being carried East away from the convection. That is not an efficient way to build heat over the center, and develop a warm core cyclone.

It'd be an impressive wave if it were heading into favorable conditions, but this time of the year the Eastern Caribbean is rarely favorable.



If it hangs together, maybe it'll try to organize in the Western Caribbean where the Easterlies slow/converge, and maybe try to become something before the Pacific. But I'd say this has a better chance of being an EPAC storm than a Caribbean storm.


Unofficially, of course.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  07/16/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)       13    16    22    27    26    37    24    33    23    27    25    28    23

Going to sleep but want to leave you with this information. Ships forecasting quite strong wind shear.

[StormTracker]

I don't post much, but I thought this was kinda cool(the next 3 days)! If 94L(I know it's dead)was to get it's act together,things could get very interesting!!!
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_Entire/UA_Entire_03_Day.shtml

[Kennethb]

We still have to look at the calendar and remember that it is still the middle of July. Although the MJO is in a positive stage, 94L is still not in a prime area of development such as it would be in latter August or early September.

[StormTracker]

True KenB...Damn, the last QS missed!!!

[wxsouth]

I do not know what the Dvorak is looking at, then. I thought that was about the location, but wasn't sure (was looking at the big image, with only the 10's on it).

TRMM image from late in the afternoon provides good clues as to why SSD is still coming up with a 2.0 on the system. There appears to be a center in the lower levels around 13N 51W. At the very least...taking into account the westward motion...its a very sharp trough.

Not a system which looks likes its headed towards much intensification...but not an open wave either.