Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[lester]

Wow 70 pages on an non-invest...gotta love storm2k!!

Looks to be a weak ts eventually though imo and a droughtbuster up here

[caneseddy]

At 60 hours: exiting Florida around Daytona Beach

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal060.gif

At 66 hours: moving parallel to the East Coast

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal066.gif

At 72 hours: just offshore SC/NC border; also notice the new low pressure forming in the Gulf of Honduras

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal072.gif

At 78 hours: second landfall in North Carolina

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal078.gif

At 84 hours: moving right over the Outer Banks; low pressure continuing to develop in the NW Caribbean moving north

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal084.gif

[Bocadude85]

12Z GFS out to 54 hours..landfall in South Florida

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal054.gif

996mb's......With the strong ridge developing behind the trough I would suspect at least Hurricane force winds a possibility along the east coast of Florida due to the pressure gradient.

That would be one heck of a pressure gradient to cause hurricane force winds....

[caneseddy]

At 90 hours: moving over New England; low pressure still developing in the NW Caribbean

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal090.gif

At 96 hours: into Canada; low pressure forming off of the East Coast and our new friend in the Caribbean

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal090.gif

[Blown Away]

12z GFS very close to Irene 1999 type track. I see 996mb pressure, IMO I don't think it would be a stretch to see TS Nicole out of this and w/ that pressure gradient maybe some hurricane gusts along the coast.

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't have any evidence to back this up but I have a potential concern. If the trough was to lift out and leave this system behind it would possibly be left in a weak steering environment for a day or so. That would allow this to strengthen much more than the current models are indicating before the next trough drops down and grabs it. It appears that the current trough, albeit very deep, is not affecting this much due to the fact that the system is shallow at this time. Thoughts and comments are welcome...

SFT

[JPmia]

I'm leaning toward the comments that it may not have enough time to get it's act together before that trough begins to add shear and move it NE...trough looks to be digging south at a rapid clip:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[cycloneye]

No invest yet, but at least there is something new from TAFB.

[srainhoutx]

Not much doubt the trough will pick this one up IMO...

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow, that's a big trough for this time of year. Cudos to the models for sniffing that out well in advance...

SFT

[Bocadude85]

I'm leaning toward the comments that it may not have enough time to get it's act together before that trough begins to add shear and move it NE...trough looks to be digging south at a rapid clip:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

Yea I do not think this will amount to much.. probably just a big rain event

[wxman57]

12Z GFS out to 54 hours..landfall in South Florida

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal054.gif

996mb's......With the strong ridge developing behind the trough I would suspect at least Hurricane force winds a possibility along the east coast of Florida due to the pressure gradient.

I"m not sure where you're seeing a strong ridge behind a trof. I see a weak high behind a cold front northwest of the low and a much stronger high to the NE. Strongest gradient would be between the 996mb low and the Bermuda High, but that's only a 10mb gradient over 400 miles. Not very much, and not nearly enough to produce anything close to hurricane force winds.

Looking NW of the low, there's a much weaker 1012mb high center behind the cold front. I measure a 10 mb pressure rise in close to 500 miles to the NW of the low when it's over south Florida. Either way, a low-end TS at most according to the GFS forecast.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't have any evidence to back this up but I have a potential concern. If the trough was to lift out and leave this system behind it would possibly be left in a weak steering environment for a day or so. That would allow this to strengthen much more than the current models are indicating before the next trough drops down and grabs it. It appears that the current trough, albeit very deep, is not affecting this much due to the fact that the system is shallow at this time. Thoughts and comments are welcome...

SFT

Even the Low level flow in the western Carib. will begin to come from the SW out in advance of this trough. Little doubt that whatever is there will eventually lift NNE in the flow.

[Vortex]

145Z hi-res vis suggests low pressure beginning to organize wsw of the caymans..

[Vortmax1]

[Vortex]

Use the GFS for track not intensity...IMO this could be a high-end TS/Cat 1

[KWT]

I personally think you maybe being a little conservative wxman57, esp knowing what the NHC do typically in sheared systems...but either way I think your right, this probably won't be much more then a 40-45kts type system...however thats all it needs to be with the rain being the main story...one way or the other.

[otowntiger]

I'm leaning toward the comments that it may not have enough time to get it's act together before that trough begins to add shear and move it NE...trough looks to be digging south at a rapid clip:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

Yea I do not think this will amount to much.. probably just a big rain event

If that. It looks like much of the rain may miss us to the east according to some models. Yep, much ado about nothing it appears to me.

[Dean4Storms]

12Z GFS out to 54 hours..landfall in South Florida

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal054.gif

996mb's......With the strong ridge developing behind the trough I would suspect at least Hurricane force winds a possibility along the east coast of Florida due to the pressure gradient.

I"m not sure where you're seeing a strong ridge behind a trof. I see a weak high behind a cold front northwest of the low and a much stronger high to the NE. Strongest gradient would be between the 996mb low and the Bermuda High, but that's only a 10mb gradient over 400 miles. Not very much, and not nearly enough to produce anything close to hurricane force winds.

Looking NW of the low, there's a much weaker 1012mb high center behind the cold front. I measure a 10 mb pressure rise in close to 500 miles to the NW of the low when it's over south Florida. Either way, a low-end TS at most according to the GFS forecast.

Good point, I was thinking the ridge behind the front was much stronger than 1012, but I went back and looked at the surface forecast and you are correct. Thanks!

[HURRICANELONNY]

I thought this was a end of the month like the 30th event? The NWS is talking Tues-Weds. event.