ATL: IRENE - Models

[indian]

what is the deal with the one blue model way west....is that possible?

[allicat1214]

You can throw all these models out...now when the hurricane hunters put the data in, we shall see what happens.

Since they are scheduled to arrive at 97L around 1 pm, which model runs will have their data??

Thanks!

[Kory]

You can throw all these models out...now when the hurricane hunters put the data in, we shall see what happens.

Since they are scheduled to arrive at 97L around 1 pm, which model runs will have their data??

Thanks!

18z or 00z...I'm not sure which one, but this evening the models should have the new data.

[gatorcane]

Remember Gator the Canadian, Canadian ensembles UKMET and Euro ensembles are quite a but further west than that map with BAMS. Also note the GFS ensembles are further west than the operational as well. Point being there is not as tight of a consensus as that map may indicate and the ensembles hint at some west shifts possible.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yeah that is true. I am not quite 100% sold on a South Florida hit here by any means. Honestly I would place the track a bit west of the FL peninsula still with possible landfall at Big Bend or FL Panhandle area.

I have a hunch the global models will inch west ever so slowly over the next few days. Of course, that could mean a really intense hurricane in the Eastern or Southern GOM with less land interaction and very warm SSTs to work with.

In this scenario a CAT 3 or higher would not be out of the question

[Portastorm]

ATTENTION EVERYONE!

I've received a few complaints this morning about this thread being off topic as well as some inappropriate comments better left unsaid (or untyped). Let's stay focused on the topic at hand ... in this case, the computer models regarding System 97L.

That is all.

[Javlin]

Remember Gator the Canadian, Canadian ensembles UKMET and Euro ensembles are quite a but further west than that map with BAMS. Also note the GFS ensembles are further west than the operational as well. Point being there is not as tight of a consensus as that map may indicate and the ensembles hint at some west shifts possible.

I had noticed that also Mike.......

[Ivanhater]

Remember Gator the Canadian, Canadian ensembles UKMET and Euro ensembles are quite a but further west than that map with BAMS. Also note the GFS ensembles are further west than the operational as well. Point being there is not as tight of a consensus as that map may indicate and the ensembles hint at some west shifts possible.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yeah that is true. I am not quite 100% sold on a South Florida hit here by any means. Honestly I would place the track a bit west of the FL peninsula still with possible landfall at Big Bend or FL Panhandle area.

I have a hunch the global models will inch west ever so slowly over the next few days. Of course, that could mean a really intense hurricane in the Eastern or Southern GOM with less land interaction and very warm SSTs to work with.

In this scenario a CAT 3 or higher would not be out of the question

Let's hope this does not get enough "breathing room" in the Gulf, other wise someone is in trouble

[Ivanhater]

ATTENTION EVERYONE!

I've received a few complaints this morning about this thread being off topic as well as some inappropriate comments better left unsaid (or untyped). Let's stay focused on the topic at hand ... in this case, the computer models regarding System 97L.

That is all.

Two moderators have had to step in already this morning...official warnings and suspensions will follow. If you have a problem with a post that is what the report button is for, do not clutter up the thread responding to it.

[rockyman]

Is there a spaghetti map with the GFS and ensemble mean, Euro and ensemble mean, Canadian, UKMet, GFDL, HWRF, and possibly the NOGAPS...but without the Bams, clp and lbar? This would seem to be a lot more informative than the one usually posted

[jhpigott]

Isn't the new GFS going to roll shortly??

[Ivanhater]

Is there a spaghetti map with the GFS and ensemble mean, Euro and ensemble mean, Canadian, UKMet, GFDL, HWRF, and possibly the NOGAPS...but without the Bams, clp and lbar? This would seem to be a lot more informative than the one usually posted

I don't think so but here is the Canadian and Euro Ensemble means

[rockyman]

Thanks! Maybe we need to hand draw it!?

[indian]

is texas in the clear for this one?

[Javlin]

Is there a spaghetti map with the GFS and ensemble mean, Euro and ensemble mean, Canadian, UKMet, GFDL, HWRF, and possibly the NOGAPS...but without the Bams, clp and lbar? This would seem to be a lot more informative than the one usually posted

something like this

pic did not work

[rockyman]

In 2010 almost every model had an eastward bias...meaning that if the model "missed" the actual track, the actual track was usually farther west than predicted...this was especially true 5 days out

[Nikki]

is texas in the clear for this one?

As a fellow coastal Texan, I can tell you from what I am reading on the forums and in the chat room, Texas does seem to be in the clear with this storm. However, it is always better to be prepared when any storm is lurking about. As they say in the tropics, never say never. Just keep your eye on it and keep tuning into Storm2k. These fine folks will let us all know where this storm and future storms are headed.

[storm4u]

gfs looks to far south already

EDIT should have refreshed it further north

[Javlin]

Mike looks like a Fredrick Ivan or a Katrina path.If something gets going with this system and they have struggled with development once in the Caribbean this season these models don't mean that much persay intensity wise.I will usually pray to be smack dab in the middle of the NHC cone 5-days out then the sweating should stop but these are not NHC cones,so I watch with mild interest at the moment.August is just a bad month for the NGOM.

[jlauderdal]

Thanks! Maybe we need to hand draw it!?

Air Force Met does some very informative hand drawn charts...not often but when he does them its good stuff.

[storm4u]

gfs stronger then 6z so far and about 25 miles north