ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM NORTH OF CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES
VIEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

[galaxy401]

There's Chantal out there approaching the islands, but look at all of the strong waves behind it (and the other disturbance in front of it off Florida). Very, very intense parade of tropical waves for so early in the season.

Wow that looks like August out there...

[floridasun78]

that right line go up as rocket?

[Evil Jeremy]

No longer forecast to be a TD in days 4 and 5. In fact, it strengthens from day 4 to day 5...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

...CHANTAL RACING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 56.1W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM NORTH OF CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES
VIEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM NORTH OF CABO ENGANO
TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
LATER ON TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...
150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND REACH PUERTO RICO
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF CHANTAL HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING CHANTAL FOUND A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT NORTHWEST AND
WEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND WERE THEREFORE ABLE TO CLOSE OFF
A CIRCULATION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
58 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 40 TO 42 KT. A BLEND OF THE
SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A SURPRISINGLY HIGH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010
MB.

CHANTAL CONTINUES TO RACE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KT. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SOME DECELERATE
EXPECTED AS IT APPROACHES HISPANIOLA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST AS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE DEVLOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIVERGES SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER. THE LATEST GFS HAS
SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IT LIES
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LASTEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES HISPANIOLA. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND THE
UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
ADVISORY. AFTER CHANTAL INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST BECOMES QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE
IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MUCH
LESS FAVORABLE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST...
CHANTAL COULD WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR PERHAPS EVEN
DISSIPATE IN THE 3 TO 4 DAY TIME PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CHANTAL WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AROUND DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 12.4N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 13.7N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 15.3N 63.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 17.1N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 19.0N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 22.5N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[SFLcane]

[Blown Away]

No hint of left turn over Florida...

[mcheer23]

NHC doesn't believe in the west bend...just yet.

[Evil Jeremy]

AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIVERGES SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER. THE LATEST GFS HAS
SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IT LIES
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LASTEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC doesn't believe in the west bend...just yet.

still outside the 5 day forecast. they will have to 12z tomorrow if the models keep the west turn.

[Stormlover2012]

They won't untill we see consistency, if gfs shows it on 00,06,12 and euro still shows high building in on 00 run then u will see a change!!

[Hurricane Alexis]

that right line go up as rocket?

Yea that's the GFDL which has Chantal stalling in the Bahamas and strengthening.

[SFLcane]

From 11pm ad.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE
IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MUCH
LESS FAVORABLE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST...
CHANTAL COULD WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR PERHAPS EVEN
DISSIPATE IN THE 3 TO 4 DAY TIME PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CHANTAL WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AROUND DAY 5.

[thetruesms]

NHC doesn't believe in the west bend...just yet.

still outside the 5 day forecast. they will have to 12z tomorrow if the models keep the west turn.

Yup, this. NHC gets to put off the big decision a just a little bit longer.

[Annie Oakley]

that right line go up as rocket?

That's the best/straightest rocket's trajectory path I've ever seen for sure.

[floridasun78]

ok this new turn going get stronger over bahamas not weaker

[Bocadude85]

NHC doesn't believe in the west bend...just yet.

still outside the 5 day forecast. they will have to 12z tomorrow if the models keep the west turn.

Yup, this. NHC gets to put off the big decision a just a little bit longer.

Will be interesting to see if the models keep showing the westward turn. If they do then I am thinking landfall somewhere between West Palm Beach and Daytona Beach. Just my opinion of course. Though I am thinking we will be safe down here in South Florida. I think she will drift far enough north before she turns westward to not be a problem for us down here.. though things can and will certainly change.

[meriland23]

Why is the NHC persistently staying at 50mph when recon found 58 knot winds?

[Aric Dunn]

NHC doesn't believe in the west bend...just yet.

still outside the 5 day forecast. they will have to 12z tomorrow if the models keep the west turn.

Yup, this. NHC gets to put off the big decision a just a little bit longer.

they love doing that

[Aric Dunn]

Why is the NHC persistently staying at 50mph when recon found 58 knot winds?

because its a blend of FLight level and adjusted smfr readings.