ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261230
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 20 20180526
122000 2030N 08440W 9250 00737 0061 +212 +204 219024 024 021 000 00
122030 2028N 08438W 9252 00735 0061 +216 +202 217024 025 021 000 00
122100 2027N 08437W 9248 00740 0061 +218 +199 217024 025 019 000 00
122130 2026N 08436W 9250 00738 0062 +215 +200 218025 026 021 000 00
122200 2025N 08434W 9248 00740 0064 +215 +199 215027 028 020 000 00
122230 2024N 08433W 9250 00739 0065 +211 +204 216028 028 020 000 00
122300 2023N 08432W 9247 00745 0068 +210 +204 217028 028 019 000 00
122330 2021N 08431W 9248 00745 0069 +210 +200 218027 028 020 000 00
122400 2020N 08430W 9249 00743 0069 +210 +197 219027 028 018 001 00
122430 2019N 08429W 9250 00744 0070 +210 +200 218027 028 019 001 00
122500 2018N 08427W 9249 00745 0072 +208 +200 217026 027 019 000 03
122530 2017N 08426W 9250 00745 0072 +210 +196 218027 027 021 000 00
122600 2016N 08425W 9249 00745 0072 +210 +196 222028 029 021 000 00
122630 2015N 08424W 9250 00744 0071 +212 +198 223029 030 021 000 00
122700 2014N 08423W 9248 00746 0072 +210 +199 220029 030 019 001 00
122730 2013N 08422W 9246 00750 0073 +209 +198 223028 029 019 000 00
122800 2012N 08420W 9250 00745 0073 +210 +194 224028 028 018 001 00
122830 2010N 08419W 9248 00749 0073 +209 +192 225029 029 019 001 00
122900 2009N 08418W 9248 00749 0074 +207 +195 229028 029 019 000 03
122930 2008N 08417W 9251 00746 0074 +213 +186 227028 028 018 000 00
$$

[Frank P]

looking at the latest long loop of the IR sat presentation certainly hints of convection building around the center as it appears to be moving to the NNE TO NE... mentioned yesterday that the UKMET and CMC tracks took it thru western Cuba and that looks like a strong possibility today if it continues its current motion TBD.. few if any of the other models yesterday indicated a western Cuba impact...

The UKIE has performed admirably as of late. GFS to its credit may have had some of the right ideas with multiple vorticies

Agree... and sometimes we are quick to point out model flaws days before we even know the final outcome of the storm events... and you still don't know what surprises that might lurking in the next 2-3 days, or ultimately which models had the best performance until the landfall outcome.... and seems most cyclones always want to surprise us down the road.. regardless, this morning sat presentation is showing to me the first time I can actually see some decent convection building around the "dominant" center of this system... we'll see what happens when it enters the SE GOM...

[gatorcane]

Besides shear, the very dry air coming in from Texas and Western Gulf is keeping a cap on development:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Nimbus]

I got the impression from the NHC forecast yesterday that this shear from the west that has relocated the center further east is ending soon. It is possible that with a track delay the forecast for the northern gulf will be more influenced by ridging which could stall the system and pull it back west before landfall. In any event the relocation near the tip of Cuba might change POPs for the south central Florida peninsula. 11 AM advisory should be interesting.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261240
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 21 20180526
123000 2007N 08416W 9249 00749 0075 +210 +195 227028 028 019 000 00
123030 2006N 08414W 9249 00749 0075 +214 +188 224029 029 020 000 03
123100 2005N 08413W 9250 00749 0076 +214 +187 224028 029 018 001 03
123130 2004N 08412W 9249 00750 0076 +213 +187 221027 028 018 000 00
123200 2003N 08411W 9251 00747 0076 +210 +188 222026 027 017 001 00
123230 2002N 08410W 9248 00752 0077 +210 +184 224027 027 016 000 00
123300 2001N 08408W 9248 00752 0078 +209 +188 225027 028 016 001 00
123330 1959N 08407W 9248 00750 0077 +207 +189 229027 028 022 001 00
123400 1958N 08406W 9250 00751 0078 +208 +195 224025 028 024 001 03
123430 1957N 08405W 9248 00751 0078 +204 +200 214025 027 024 001 00
123500 1956N 08404W 9246 00751 0082 +203 //// 214025 027 031 012 05
123530 1955N 08403W 9235 00766 0084 +205 //// 200024 025 028 007 01
123600 1954N 08401W 9245 00756 0083 +200 //// 204028 029 029 007 01
123630 1953N 08400W 9251 00749 //// +202 //// 210028 029 024 002 05
123700 1952N 08359W 9248 00756 //// +205 //// 208028 028 021 001 01
123730 1951N 08358W 9249 00754 0081 +208 +203 208028 028 021 000 00
123800 1950N 08357W 9250 00754 0082 +207 +204 208029 029 020 000 00
123830 1949N 08356W 9249 00755 0082 +207 +203 207028 029 020 000 00
123900 1948N 08355W 9248 00755 0081 +210 +199 210028 028 021 001 00
123930 1946N 08353W 9248 00756 0081 +211 +194 211027 028 020 000 00

[gatorcane]

00Z UKMET. Does appear to show strengthening before landfall in the FL panhandle. Track not too far west of West-Central Florida as the model has insisted on:

[Ivanhater]

Remember all models are showing this going north of Cuba..it's tomorrow when high pressure builds in from the east that it gets shoved back NW

[wxman57]

Although the operational runs shifted a little east overnight, the ensembles shifted decidedly west, taking the center not far from the mouth of the Mississippi before turning north to the SE MS coast Monday evening. I would go with the ensembles rather than any track shift into Alabama or the FL Panhandle. In fact, I AM going with the ensembles on my 9am advisory. Nudged the track farther NW, closer to SE LA prior to the turn north.

[mlfreeman]

The best analog storm I can find for Alberto is Tropical Storm Arlene (2005). Track and potential intensity are nearly identical.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Arlene_(2005)

I seriously hope we're not about to repeat 2005.

[gatorcane]

Is that the center south of the Western tip of Cuba moving NE? If so seems quite a bit to the right (east) of the NHC track and the model consensus:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[slamdaddy]

Although the operational runs shifted a little east overnight, the ensembles shifted decidedly west, taking the center not far from the mouth of the Mississippi before turning north to the SE MS coast Monday evening. I would go with the ensembles rather than any track shift into Alabama or the FL Panhandle. In fact, I AM going with the ensembles on my 9am advisory. Nudged the track farther NW, closer to SE LA prior to the turn north.

You have your own site with graphics WXMAN57 ?

[Ivanhater]

Although the operational runs shifted a little east overnight, the ensembles shifted decidedly west, taking the center not far from the mouth of the Mississippi before turning north to the SE MS coast Monday evening. I would go with the ensembles rather than any track shift into Alabama or the FL Panhandle. In fact, I AM going with the ensembles on my 9am advisory. Nudged the track farther NW, closer to SE LA prior to the turn north.

You have your own site with graphics WXMAN57 ?

For his clients. He is just gracious enough to give us the inside scoop

[slamdaddy]

Although the operational runs shifted a little east overnight, the ensembles shifted decidedly west, taking the center not far from the mouth of the Mississippi before turning north to the SE MS coast Monday evening. I would go with the ensembles rather than any track shift into Alabama or the FL Panhandle. In fact, I AM going with the ensembles on my 9am advisory. Nudged the track farther NW, closer to SE LA prior to the turn north.

You have your own site with graphics WXMAN57 ?

For his clients. He is just gracious enough to give us the inside scoop

Gotcha, kind of like Joe B with his gig.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261250
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 22 20180526
124000 1945N 08352W 9250 00752 0082 +212 +193 213028 028 019 001 00
124030 1944N 08351W 9247 00757 0084 +207 +201 214028 028 018 001 03
124100 1943N 08350W 9248 00756 0083 +210 +197 216028 028 018 001 03
124130 1942N 08349W 9251 00754 0083 +213 +192 214027 028 020 000 03
124200 1942N 08349W 9251 00754 0083 +210 +196 212027 027 019 000 00
124230 1940N 08347W 9250 00755 0084 +210 +197 210026 027 019 000 00
124300 1939N 08345W 9253 00754 0084 +210 +196 209026 027 020 001 03
124330 1938N 08344W 9248 00758 0084 +213 +188 211027 027 020 000 00
124400 1937N 08343W 9250 00756 0085 +210 +193 210027 027 019 000 00
124430 1936N 08342W 9245 00761 0085 +213 +188 212026 027 019 001 03
124500 1935N 08340W 9246 00758 0084 +210 +189 206027 027 /// /// 03
124530 1936N 08339W 9249 00757 0086 +208 +191 201027 027 021 000 03
124600 1938N 08340W 9254 00752 0085 +209 +188 203028 028 022 001 00
124630 1940N 08340W 9249 00756 0084 +210 +184 202029 029 022 000 00
124700 1942N 08340W 9249 00758 0085 +210 +184 201029 029 020 001 00
124730 1943N 08340W 9245 00761 0085 +210 +183 200029 029 022 001 00
124800 1945N 08340W 9248 00757 0084 +210 +186 200029 029 022 000 00
124830 1947N 08340W 9249 00757 0084 +210 +189 200029 029 022 001 00
124900 1949N 08340W 9246 00758 0083 +210 +186 200029 029 023 000 00
124930 1951N 08340W 9251 00752 0083 +209 +190 199030 030 022 000 00

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 261244
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012018
A. 26/12:09:40Z
B. 20 deg 48 min N
084 deg 59 min W
C. 925 mb 724 m
D. 26 kt
E. 129 deg 3 nm
F. 021 deg 15 kt
G. 303 deg 120 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 22 C / 762 m
J. 22 C / 762 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0201A ALBERTO OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 30 KT 133 / 47 NM 12:27:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

[cycloneye]

So far,plane has found pressure one millibar lower at low center than from the past advisories (1004 mbs)

[BobHarlem]

Although the operational runs shifted a little east overnight, the ensembles shifted decidedly west, taking the center not far from the mouth of the Mississippi before turning north to the SE MS coast Monday evening. I would go with the ensembles rather than any track shift into Alabama or the FL Panhandle. In fact, I AM going with the ensembles on my 9am advisory. Nudged the track farther NW, closer to SE LA prior to the turn north.

My biggest concern about that is if the center keeps moving east of the NHC forecast like it did overnight, the NHC's initial position of the storm have shifted east almost every advisory since it started.

[ronjon]

Is that the center south of the Western tip of Cuba moving NE? If so seems quite a bit to the right (east) of the NHC track and the model consensus:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

NHC track now on the west side of guidance the next 48 hrs. Important benchmark is 85W. Does the center track now closer to 84W at least up to latitude 27N. If so, that puts a chunk of FL west coast close enough for tropical storms conditions. Although given present structure Alberto would have to stregthen from where it is now.