ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[FLpanhandle91]

I'm noticing an eye like feature forming on radar. Core has organized nicely.

[tolakram]

latest saved

[Frank P]

well this radar loop sure looks interesting... did the center relocate to the NE, or my eyes deceiving me...
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Steve]

LOL at everyone calling the death knell earlier. Obviously better circulation and environment. Gonna be a nice/nasty (depending on your feelings about it) night in NWFL and coastal AL & MS.

[FLpanhandle91]

well this radar loop sure looks interesting... did the center relocate to the NE, or my eyes deceiving me...
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

That's what it looks like to me. Very interesting. It happened quickly.

[tolakram]

LOL at everyone calling the death knell earlier. Obviously better circulation and environment. Gonna be a nice/nasty (depending on your feelings about it) night in NWFL and coastal AL & MS.

It was dead earlier, the upper air pattern is nothing more that a guess at this point, even the HWRF got it wrong. Another 5mph of shear and it will poof again IMO, or 5mph less and maybe stronger.

[Frank P]

well this radar loop sure looks interesting... did the center relocate to the NE, or my eyes deceiving me...
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

That's what it looks like to me. Very interesting. It happened quickly.

looks like I'll wait awhile before I take down my porch ceiling fans... no need to if it hits to my east... which would be just fine by me...

[slamdaddy]

Just had our first bit of rain from ole Gordo

[MississippiWx]

The biggest difference I'm noticing on satellite is the fairly quick reorganization of the lower levels. The inflow from the southwest was very weak earlier to almost non-existent. That has changed, probably thanks to land friction. Gordon has my attention again, and actually is looking very healthy.

[PSUHiker31]

It was clear earlier that models were sniffing out a more favorable area of development closer to the coast. I think we could all use a little slow down on knee jerk reactions... Though I suppose it is wobble watching time lol.

I'm pretty impressed with the core that is organizing right now. Much more stable looking than yesterday's quick spin up. I think this is going to come in as a midrange category 1 with the amount of time it has left. The angle of approach reminds me distinctly of Erin 1995.

[tolakram]

Another tiny eye-like feature. We know how fast these can collapse.

[slamdaddy]

pressure 1017.8mb and steady at my location south central Jackson County, MS (approx. 7 miles from the coast)

[bella_may]

First time I’ve seen storms build on the southwest side. It’s definitely strengthening

[SunnyThoughts]

First time I’ve seen storms build on the southwest side. It’s definitely strengthening

I agree. Of course I thought that in the past as well. Lets see if it continues the next couple hours then we will know for sure.

[bella_may]

First time I’ve seen storms build on the southwest side. It’s definitely strengthening

I agree. Of course I thought that in the past as well. Lets see if it continues the next couple hours then we will know for sure.

The reason I think it will stay this time is the overall structure has improved and the westerly sheer has diminished. But you can never be sure with this storm

[Ivanhater]

certainly jumped north looking at last few frames

[Steve]

LOL at everyone calling the death knell earlier. Obviously better circulation and environment. Gonna be a nice/nasty (depending on your feelings about it) night in NWFL and coastal AL & MS.

It was dead earlier, the upper air pattern is nothing more that a guess at this point, even the HWRF got it wrong. Another 5mph of shear and it will poof again IMO, or 5mph less and maybe stronger.

It wasn't dead. It hasn't looked that great in the earlier part of the day the last few days. The mesoscale models (depictions) showed that this would be a system likely intensifying at landfall. It wasn't going to get strong, but it had a shot at a hurricane. While I personally thought that was a bit aggressive of a forecast, NHC would have backed down a little if they were sure it was going to degrade heading in. A lot of people want to be "first" with pronouncements. Better to be right than first IMHO. Detailed observation has a way of equaling this type of argument.

[Javlin]

well this radar loop sure looks interesting... did the center relocate to the NE, or my eyes deceiving me...
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

That's what it looks like to me. Very interesting. It happened quickly.

looks like I'll wait awhile before I take down my porch ceiling fans... no need to if it hits to my east... which would be just fine by me...

Come on now Frank you said the other day a little eyewall be just fine as long it's no Cat2 or more been since Georges.

[MississippiWx]

First time I’ve seen storms build on the southwest side. It’s definitely strengthening

I agree. Of course I thought that in the past as well. Lets see if it continues the next couple hours then we will know for sure.

The reason I think it will stay this time is the overall structure has improved and the westerly sheer has diminished. But you can never be sure with this storm

I'm not so sure if it's westerly shear diminishing as it is convergence increasing in that area which is finally helping thunderstorms to develop. The easterly flow has been so dominant that it has been difficult for the circulation to pull against it on that side. I think the "shear" is more from the fast forward speed which has also slowed a bit.

[FLpanhandle91]

LOL at everyone calling the death knell earlier. Obviously better circulation and environment. Gonna be a nice/nasty (depending on your feelings about it) night in NWFL and coastal AL & MS.

It was dead earlier, the upper air pattern is nothing more that a guess at this point, even the HWRF got it wrong. Another 5mph of shear and it will poof again IMO, or 5mph less and maybe stronger.

It wasn't dead. It hasn't looked that great in the earlier part of the day the last few days. The mesoscale models (depictions) showed that this would be a system likely intensifying at landfall. It wasn't going to get strong, but it had a shot at a hurricane. While I personally thought that was a bit aggressive of a forecast, NHC would have backed down a little if they were sure it was going to degrade heading in. A lot of people want to be "first" with pronouncements. Better to be right than first IMHO. Detailed observation has a way of equaling this type of argument.

It's this trait of NHC forecasting that makes it an infinitely harder profession than predicting on this forum. It's tough calls that they make, escecially given the implications of their advisories.