ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tireman4]

Barry may have 3-5 landfalls. One for each mesovortex and perhaps more than one for a couple of them.

Oh sir, you are a hoot.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I’m very curious about where these other vorts are that you guys are seeing. I see one that has taken over.

There's no other vort. What you're seeing a main, tight vort rotating around a broader area of rotation. Very strange.

[cycloneye]

Things are happening already in the area of impact.

 https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1149742585273028608

[Aric Dunn]

I’m very curious about where these other vorts are that you guys are seeing. I see one that has taken over.

Like I mentioned they were about to be eaten ... lol

[tolakram]

Here's a longer closeup loop, if you can get all the frames to load. You can see the dominant center still rotating around a mean but it does look to be tightening up. I'm not convinced this center won't make landfall in a few hours though.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=40&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1330.9332580566406&y=1094.9565734863281

[CrazyC83]

So does this justify 65kt at the next full advisory?

No, it is elevated.

[Frank P]

Well if that turns out to be the dominant LLC, and I have no idea if it is or isn't since it Barry has been spitting vortices out for the past 24 hours or so, this system is history relative to further strengthening... Aric's idea of it eventually rotating CCW back around the gryo makes since as that's what it has been doing in the past, spitting them out and they either die off or rotate back towards the center... but in have in the past I have seen very similar dominant LLC get spit out like this tracking other systems, and it's pretty much show over if it is indeed the LLC... since Aric has been pretty much right on with this system not going to doubt him now... in a couple of hours or so we will find out I guess

[Steve]

It looks as though Barry may peaked in intensity, which some models were showing the pressure around 995 or 993. Rain is still the biggest issue. Stay safe LA.

it hasn't peaked in intensity, and it's not going to until sometime on the 14th. We will hopefully stay safe here though.

Steve how much more hours till landfall?

Tough to say King. I think we are within 30 hours, but if it creeps west along the coast maybe 36? Best guess would be sometime between midnight tonight and 6pm tomorrow. More east is earlier. NHC track is about 6am. West of there would be later

[wxman57]

I'm seeing only a single vortex now. I put my crosshairs at 28.68N / 90.27W, where the last vortex message put a center. Maybe that IS the center, and it's about to reach the coast? We'll see...

[tarheelprogrammer]

I'm seeing only a single vortex now. I put my crosshairs at 28.68N / 90.27W, where the last vortex message put a center. Maybe that IS the center, and it's about to reach the coast? We'll see...

http://wxman57.com/images/Barry7.JPG

Landfall soon and then maybe back into the water for round 2? Oh Barry, you crack us up.

[StormPyrate]

I'm seeing only a single vortex now. I put my crosshairs at 28.68N / 90.27W, where the last vortex message put a center. Maybe that IS the center, and it's about to reach the coast? We'll see...

http://wxman57.com/images/Barry7.JPG

If that truly is the center its land falling way ahead of schedule.

[Aric Dunn]

and there is the wsw turn... then SW.. then?? how far sw will it go before it resume the wnw to nw motion.

[SoupBone]

In other news, the 12Z UKMET has given up on a Texas landfall. It now takes the center inland just west of Vermilion Bay around 12Z tomorrow.

Haha the prodigal son returns!

[Frank P]

I'm seeing only a single vortex now. I put my crosshairs at 28.68N / 90.27W, where the last vortex message put a center. Maybe that IS the center, and it's about to reach the coast? We'll see...

http://wxman57.com/images/Barry7.JPG

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 18:17Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2019
Storm Name: Barry (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 22

A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 17:31:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28.68N 90.27W (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 90 statute miles (145 km) to the S (188°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,391m (4,564ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 195° at 15kts (From the SSW at 17mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 55kts (63.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix at 17:06:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 174° at 59kts (From the S at 67.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the E (94°) of center fix at 16:56:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 46kts (52.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 89 nautical miles (102 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 17:59:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 316° at 41kts (From the NW at 47.2mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 89 nautical miles (102 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 17:59:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) which was observed 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) from the flight level center at 15:27:00Z

[SunnyThoughts]

So if that swirl/center makes landfall....what do we call the hugeeeee mess still out in the gulf? Just a gigantic thunderstorm? haha

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There's a single vortex, but it's clearly rotating around a broader area of rotation. Recon confirms that's where the lowest pressure is and the sharpest windshift, but it's being influenced by a very broad area of low pressure. It'll begin to move more west, and then southwest.

EDIT: Satellite frames already show this mesovortex moving west. It'll begin to move more southwest here in a few hours.

[Yellow Evan]

12/1801 UTC 28.9N 90.4W T2.5/2.5 BARRY -- Atlantic

[wxman57]

There's a single vortex, but it's clearly rotating around a broader area of rotation. Recon confirms that's where the lowest pressure is and the sharpest windshift, but it's being influenced by a very broad area of low pressure. It'll begin to move more west, and then southwest.

EDIT: Satellite frames already show this mesovortex moving west. It'll begin to move more southwest here in a few hours.

Yes, it's moving west now, but I don't see any other vortex out there. It may make a small loop but remain (or become) the primary vortex.

[Aric Dunn]

There's a single vortex, but it's clearly rotating around a broader area of rotation. Recon confirms that's where the lowest pressure is and the sharpest windshift, but it's being influenced by a very broad area of low pressure. It'll begin to move more west, and then southwest.

EDIT: Satellite frames already show this mesovortex moving west. It'll begin to move more southwest here in a few hours.

Wont take a few hours to start moving wsw to Sw. starting already..

Also the large mass of convection will also tug on it possibly bringing farther to the sw.

[crimi481]

Possible for center to form further south, under the higher cloud tops?