ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zal0phus]

Anyone know how this rate of intensification compares with other storms, specifically going from TD to Cat 4 in less than 48 hours? Or from TS to Cat 4 in roughly 24 hours?

This is Wilma or Patricia-level.

[Jelmergraaff]

Did it reach the surface or not...

[chris_fit]

Any predictions on cone changes at 11am?

0-15 mile shift to the N if anything

[weeniepatrol]

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1843282504436133966

[fsucory08]

Any predictions on cone changes at 11am?

0-15 mile shift to the N if anything

Just saw it posted in the model thread that the TVCN shifted south slightly.

[zal0phus]

I woke up to see the 125 mph update, and then immediately the 150 mph update. I don't think my thoughts would make it past the word filters on this board. I think we're about to breach the top 10 strongest.

[AutoPenalti]

Any predictions on cone changes at 11am?

0-15 mile shift to the N if anything

12z early shifted slightly South.

I'd say it stays the same.

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1843282504436133966

Ok...what is MPI?

[Pasmorade]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1843282504436133966

Ok...what is MPI?

Maximum potential intensity.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1843282504436133966

Ok...what is MPI?

Maximum Potential Intensity

[Woofde]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1843282504436133966

Ok...what is MPI?

Maximum potential intensity, how strong a storm can get strictly limited by energy from the ocean. It assumes ideal atmospheric conditions.

[ChrisH-UK]

I have family members leaving the Tampa area at noon today headed up and over to far NW Fla area. Is there a website anyone can recommend for following traffic and any possible standstills on the interstate systems that may occur due to evacuee traffic? Has anyone heard if Desantis has any ideas of contraflow? I know I75 was at a standstill in some areas last night. Just want to guide them the best I can to get them out of there the quickest way possible.

I don't know if you have been given this link but this is Florida traffic map, I hope it helps you.

https://fl511.com/map

[snownado]

Serious question I have a friend that’s never been in a major hurricane before. He currently lives about 14 miles away from Ft Myers beach in an apartment. It’s just him and his wife. Should I tell him to evacuate?

This is my own personal opinion, so take it for what little it's worth.

If they have the means to evacuate to a safe place outside the projected path (and it won't cost them their jobs), they should do so ASAP, irrespective of what the media or government says.

This is an extreme case of course and I'm not trying to victim blame, but we hear so many sad stories of people who try to wait things out until the last minute hoping it won't be as bad who end up regretting that decision.

It's always better to be safe than sorry when possible.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Milton will traverse cool upwelling Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) north of Yucatan...It will be interesting to see if those cooler waters disrupt its intensification...

Physics dictates that it should and the dry air it will be sucking in soon. And I will enjoy seeing it.

Is someone calling for dry air entrainment the new "free space" on our hurricane forum bingo card? Or is it still eyewall replacement cycles?

It's annular

[Jr0d]

You could always look at evacuating to our area here in Homestead/S Miami area. Not too far from KW but far enough from surge and all.

We are currently in Central Florida now, I was originally planning on driving back yesterday but had a change of plans, partially because of the storm.

If the forecast is correct, at most Key West will see is strong TS conditions and 3' of surge...no big deal.

With what is happening as I write with intensity and trajectory gas us really getting me worried.

While Milton will weaken before it makes it to Florida, the wind field will also expand so who knows how far the hurricane winds will ultimately reach, the same with the extreme syrge.

I will make a decision tonight on driving home, we have about 5 hours until the "stretch" and 2 more after we get to Key Largo. If the forecast shifts significantly south during that time, we can just turn around. I will have Tuesday morning also to re-access the situation assuming we drive back tonight.

If I do evacuate, it will probably be to my brother's in Titusville. We just did the Disney/Epcot birthday for a 9 year old so I really shouldn't spend money on a hotel unless I absolutely have to....Epcot's world of beer selection last night is a contributing factor to spending an extra night in CFL.

[kevin]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1843282504436133966

Ok...what is MPI?

Maximum potential intensity aka the strongest a hurricane could theoretically get in a specific region of the world at that point in time based on factors such as SST. Wxmaps has the MPI at 890mb/150kt for this part of the basin, even though AI-RI currently puts the MPI at 182 kt. Either way, it's not good.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1843282504436133966

Ok...what is MPI?

Maximum potential intensity. Basically what would be the storm limts be if its in a perfect environment

[TomballEd]

If the direction doesn't change, it will come very close to the Yucatan. They've had limited tome to prepare.

[Sunnydays]

I have family members leaving the Tampa area at noon today headed up and over to far NW Fla area. Is there a website anyone can recommend for following traffic and any possible standstills on the interstate systems that may occur due to evacuee traffic? Has anyone heard if Desantis has any ideas of contraflow? I know I75 was at a standstill in some areas last night. Just want to guide them the best I can to get them out of there the quickest way possible.

I don't know if you have been given this link but this is Florida traffic map, I hope it helps you.

https://fl511.com/map

Thank you so much for your help. Yes someone mentioned fl511 But thank you anyway. I appreciate all the help given by everyone to my questions.