NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[jlauderdal]

There are some great radio stations that stream live from Jamaica that will stream right up until they lose signal. I remember many of us listening during past hurricanes that passed over the island. This is my fav...but there are a few others.
https://edge105.com/listen-edge-105fm-live/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2vqjPCLt2M

[Teban54]

Updating this list to include Melissa:

Edit: This was written before the most recent Best Track update to 75 kts.
Edit 2 (10/27/2025): Added Melissa to the list now that it's a Cat 5.

Now that Melissa is officially a hurricane at 2pm ET, I got curious and looked at rates of intensification for Cat 5s, starting from the last time step they remained at 70 kts or lower. (For example, Erin 2025 spent 12 hours at 65 kt, which wasn't counted.)

I'm using "70 kt or lower" as the threshold for "minimum Cat 1", both because some storms jump from TS to this intensity (skipping 65 kt), and because low-end and high-end Cat 1s often display different organizational progress for further intensification.

TL;DR: A top-tier intensification rate (like Wilma, Milton and Erin) can bring Melissa to Cat 5 in the next 18-24 hours. But it's still very plausible to get a Cat 5, even without pinhole eyes, with a "normal" rate of 1.5-2 days. With almost 3 days before landfall, there's more than enough time.

Storms that intensified from 70- kt (low Cat 1) to 140+ kt (Cat 5) within 48 hours

• Wilma 2005: 18 hours, 65 -> 150 kt (12z 10/18/05 to 06z 10/19/05)
• Erin 2025: 18 hours 20 minutes, 65 -> 140 kt (21z 8/15/25 to 15:20z 8/16/25)
• Felix 2007: 24 hours, 65 -> 150 kt (00z 9/2/07 to 00z 9/3/07)
• Milton 2024: 24 hours, 70 -> 150 kt (18z 10/6/24 to 18z 10/7/24)
• Matthew 2016: 24 hours, 70 -> 145 kt (00z 9/30/16 to 00z 10/1/16) - debated
• Andrew 1992: 30 hours, 65 -> 145 kt (06z 8/22/92 to 12z 8/23/92)
• Maria 2017: 30 hours, 65 -> 145 kt (18z 9/17/17 to 00z 9/19/17)
• Edith 1971: 30 hours, 65 -> 140 kt (12z 9/8/71 to 18z 9/9/71)
• Lee 2023: 30 hours, 70 -> 145 kt (00z 9/7/23 to 06z 9/8/23)
• Rita 2005: 30 hours, 70 -> 145 kt (12z 9/20/05 to 18z 9/21/05)
• "Labor Day" 1935: 36 hours, 65 -> 160 kt (12z 9/1/35 to 00z 9/3/35) - data issue, likely took much less time in reality
• Camille 1969: 36 hours, 65 -> 150 kt (06z 8/15/69 to 18z 8/16/69) - with intermediate weakening
• Humberto 2025: 36 hours, 65 -> 140 kt (09z 9/26/25 to 21z 9/27/25)
• Melissa 2025: 39 hours, 65 -> 140 kt (18z 10/25/25 to 09z 10/27/25)
• Janet 1955: 41 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (00z 9/26/55 to 17z 9/27/55)
• "Tampico" 1933: 42 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (06z 9/19/33 to 00z 9/21/33)
• Allen 1980: 42 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (06z 8/3/80 to 00z 8/5/80)
• Hugo 1989: 42 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (00z 9/14/89 to 18z 9/15/89)
• Dean 2007: 48 hours, 70 -> 145 kt (06z 8/16/07 to 06z 8/18/07)
• Ian 2022: 48 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (12z 9/26/22 to 12z 9/28/22) - with intermediate weakening
• Beryl 2024: 48 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (00z 6/30/24 to 00z 7/2/24) - with intermediate weakening
• Anita 1977: 48 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (00z 8/31/77 to 00z 9/2/77)

Uses advisory times for 2025, and TCR for others (ignoring intermediate times unless in the TCR).

[Beef Stew]

Should be getting our center fix from NOAA any minute now. AF is headed back in as well from the SW.

[mrbagyo]

909.9 Extrap
154 - FL

[Travorum]

909.9mb extrap for a deepening of 2.5mb at a rate of 2mb/hr since last pass (at least by extrap).

[mrbagyo]

Can it get lower than Ragasa's official 905 hpa? (though it has a unofficial 900.3hPa buoy reading and a still undisclosed reading from Calayan synop).

[Beef Stew]

Interestingly enough, the FL winds in the NE are more or less the same as the NW. I guess she is just moving at a crawl, though.

[Beef Stew]

AF is about to make its SW to NE pass. Let’s see if we get any differences in the data.

[Teban54]

AF is about to make its SW to NE pass. Let’s see if we get any differences in the data.

Two 153 kt FL readings in the SW quad. Extrap is 910.9 mb so far.

[GCANE]

Hot tower shooting on the eastern periphery.
Hopefully a sign of a developing EWRC.
Watching recon's eye drops if the core is drying out.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hot tower shooting on the eastern periphery.
Hopefully a sign of a developing EWRC.
Watching recon's eye drops if the core is drying out.

Idk, it has plenty of time to recover from an EWRC. I am not eager for one

[Blown Away]

Melissa is supposed to be going N at 78.1W and continues moving WNW. This should move the landfall point farther W on Jamaica.

[Travorum]

https://i.postimg.cc/sgPtRP8N/Melissa.jpg
Melissa is supposed to be going N at 78.1W and continues moving WNW. This should move the landfall point farther W on Jamaica.

I think not for certain? If it is further south when the trough grabs it, there's more time for it to be pulled east. So there's two opposing factors, the W movement and the lack of N movement.

[zzzh]

This is one of the strongest dropsonde I've ever seen

[ATDoel]

https://i.postimg.cc/sgPtRP8N/Melissa.jpg
Melissa is supposed to be going N at 78.1W and continues moving WNW. This should move the landfall point farther W on Jamaica.

If there's any silver lining, the odds of a direct hit on Kingston are going down every hour.

[kevin]

910.5 mb extrapolated pressure. Again 156 kt peak FL wind, which imo seems sufficient to support 145 kt.

Edit: removed surface pressure estimate using FL winds in the eye.

[Teban54]

AF is about to make its SW to NE pass. Let’s see if we get any differences in the data.

Two 153 kt FL readings in the SW quad. Extrap is 910.9 mb so far.

AF measured two 156 kt FL readings in the NE quad, as well as a slightly lower extrap of 910.5 mb on the way out.

Do two identical readings imply anything differently from a single one?

[zzzh]

910.5 mb extrapolated with 18 kt nearby. Supports 909 - 910 mb. Again 156 kt peak FL wind, which imo seems sufficient to support 145 kt.

again you can't use fl wind for surface pressure adjustment

[kevin]

910.5 mb extrapolated with 18 kt nearby. Supports 909 - 910 mb. Again 156 kt peak FL wind, which imo seems sufficient to support 145 kt.

again you can't use fl wind for surface pressure adjustment

Oh yes you're right, guess I missed your previous message. Thanks for the correction .

[Beef Stew]

I think 145 kts is definitely arguable at this point.