Tropical Storm Ophelia

[seahawkjd]

Definetely a lot more cold clouds firing up now on the east side, and even the west. That huge hole seems to be filling in some.

[oneness]

Dry air is getting into the northern core though, you can see it dissolving on radar.

[Three Blind Mice]

Convection is improving. Tops are cooling and try to wrap. Appears Gulfstream is providing some energy. Anybody got a map of the Gulfstream. I know it starts 60 miles southeast of me. Have never gone fishing to the other side.

This storm may be more of a problem than everyone is thinking around here. Not it's CAT status but the longevity of the winds/rain effects. And I always believe a strenghtening landfalling storm is much worse than it's Saffir Simpson scale indicates(been through to many)

[oneness]

The center of rotation is very clearly moving northward on radar and pressure has been slowly rising for the past ~24 hrs. She may not even make it back to cat 1 before the coast.

[krysof]

she has developed much stronger convection in the last few hours, especially to the east and north sides

[Three Blind Mice]

NNW maybe...she is definitely looking better. No recon for hours. Would bet pressures will be slowly dropping over the day.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/ltx_N0Z_lp.shtml

[oneness]

Yeah, there was a build-up, but the IR loop also shows that that spurt of convection is now collapsing and the moisture loop shows dry air getting into the N and NW outer-core, and radar shows the bands in the NW have gone dry.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/ltx_N0Z_lp.shtml

I don't see any strengthening in O (yet).

[Three Blind Mice]

Time will tell. Think you are very wrong! She is not falling apart because of dry air intrusion at this time. Think of the Gulfstream as the energizer bunny.....it just keeps on going, pumping warm water into "O".

[Skyline]

O has gotten her eastern side together last night and more so than I expected. Will see if see can keep this up. At least, she has wrapped convection around her central core.

Pressures have been dropping all around her this morning.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... 250&time=3

Let us see what racon finds, but she is just a strong storm right now. Lots of rain and blustery wind.

[ThunderMate]

oneness....this storm is definately looking better than beforew just give her the credit she deserves...convection is starting to form all around the eye or center of the storm and i expect a hurricane from this storm at 8 and definately at 11 am.

[Patrick99]

I still don't see a core, but there's a little more convection than yesterday. Maybe it's just pulsing in the night/early morning hours.

[JamesFromMaine2]

on radar out of Wilmington NC you can clearly see the core!

[Stormtrack03]

It's about 100 miles due east of charleston at the moment... hoping it starts a more north turn than wnw move soon.

[oneness]

Watch the radar, it has been moving slowly north for a couple of hours.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I don't think it has been moving! the NHC said it was stationary and the inner core was rotating around inside the bigger area so well the inner core was moving the rest of the storm was not moving!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the
center. Ophelia's strongest winds are located relatively far from
the center...roughly 50 to 60 miles. These winds will reach the
coastline well in advance of the center.

Avila is not the only one that needs a vacation, Beven too.

[superfly]

The wonders the Gulf Stream can do for a system. Looking much better than last night.

[oneness]

She does seem to be ventilating more symmetrically in recent images

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...OPHELIA WOBBLING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON
NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND
OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM
THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE
COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...32.2 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT
...NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[BensonTCwatcher]

It must be the gulf strem that is providing the energy. She has fired more convection overnight than in the last 48 hours or more. The cloud tops have remained cold and you can see than on the loops as red on teh NHC floaters. Also note that the convection is thicker and overall wider and wrapped more around the "missing" central core from yesterday afternoon.

She looked to be falling apart. Not too worried since at least one good thing to come from Katrina was that for the most part, the local authorities and others have paid attention to this system. If '"o" had not meandered over her own upwelled, cooler waters and had dry air, we may have been seeing a storm run up from CAT 1 to CAT 3 at the last minute over the GS. Bertha did.


The eye feature is so mis-shapen that getting a good read on the center is tough from sat loops. The overall mass of the storm seems to be nearly stationary as the NHC said last advisory. Looks every bit like a Horry county SC to Pender County NC landfall to me. Last Thursday I said MB/SC and into NC. Looks like I may be right about that, although the reasons and track predictions were a complete bust due the slowness of the system. The madness of Ophelia will continue for a few more days it appears.....