Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN AS A
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO
CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...
435 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR...WITH SOME WOBBLES. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.9 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 892 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.4 83.3 295./ 6.0
6 17.7 83.9 297./ 6.2
12 18.2 84.8 300./10.1
18 18.4 85.4 286./ 5.9
24 18.9 85.9 315./ 7.6
30 19.7 86.3 333./ 8.1
36 20.1 86.7 320./ 5.6
42 20.6 86.9 335./ 5.7
48 21.1 87.0 348./ 4.4
54 21.4 87.1 351./ 3.8
60 21.6 86.9 34./ 2.1
66 21.9 86.8 32./ 3.1
72 22.1 86.3 68./ 5.2
78 22.4 85.6 62./ 6.9
84 22.7 84.9 70./ 7.0
90 23.3 84.0 57./10.5
96 24.1 82.7 59./13.9
102 25.5 80.8 51./22.2
108 27.9 78.7 42./30.4
114 31.3 76.1 38./41.1
120 36.2 73.2 30./53.6
126 41.4 71.6 18./53.9

[cjrciadt]

[cjrciadt]

[Canelaw99]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.4 83.3 295./ 6.0
6 17.7 83.9 297./ 6.2
12 18.2 84.8 300./10.1
18 18.4 85.4 286./ 5.9
24 18.9 85.9 315./ 7.6
30 19.7 86.3 333./ 8.1
36 20.1 86.7 320./ 5.6
42 20.6 86.9 335./ 5.7
48 21.1 87.0 348./ 4.4
54 21.4 87.1 351./ 3.8
60 21.6 86.9 34./ 2.1
66 21.9 86.8 32./ 3.1
72 22.1 86.3 68./ 5.2
78 22.4 85.6 62./ 6.9
84 22.7 84.9 70./ 7.0
90 23.3 84.0 57./10.5
96 24.1 82.7 59./13.9
102 25.5 80.8 51./22.2
108 27.9 78.7 42./30.4
114 31.3 76.1 38./41.1
120 36.2 73.2 30./53.6
126 41.4 71.6 18./53.9

My lat/long is 25.2/80.2

[stormandan28]

Well it kind of is starting to look like Sarasota north is not going to get much out of this storm?

[Brent]

My lat/long is 25.2/80.2

GFS showing the same thing... that would probably be the worst thing for Miami next to a hit from the east because there is no real land to weaken it.

[milankovitch]

double

[milankovitch]

double

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.4 83.3 295./ 6.0
6 17.7 83.9 297./ 6.2
12 18.2 84.8 300./10.1
18 18.4 85.4 286./ 5.9
24 18.9 85.9 315./ 7.6
30 19.7 86.3 333./ 8.1
36 20.1 86.7 320./ 5.6
42 20.6 86.9 335./ 5.7
48 21.1 87.0 348./ 4.4
54 21.4 87.1 351./ 3.8
60 21.6 86.9 34./ 2.1
66 21.9 86.8 32./ 3.1
72 22.1 86.3 68./ 5.2
78 22.4 85.6 62./ 6.9
84 22.7 84.9 70./ 7.0
90 23.3 84.0 57./10.5
96 24.1 82.7 59./13.9
102 25.5 80.8 51./22.2
108 27.9 78.7 42./30.4
114 31.3 76.1 38./41.1
120 36.2 73.2 30./53.6
126 41.4 71.6 18./53.9

My lat/long is 25.2/80.2

Oh my ... good luck. Be safe!

[gatorcane]

[WindRunner]

Following that GFDL track, what's SLOSH say about Narrangset Bay and a Cat 1?

[milankovitch]

The GFLD manages to track over Cancun, Key West, Miami and Boston.

[TheShrimper]

Stay Away from Homestead Miami Speedway !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[floridahurricaneguy]

What do ya think? I still think models to far south.

Matt

[DESTRUCTION5]

What do ya think? I still think models to far south.

Matt

Close to my thoughts....

[cycloneye]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=24

Graphic of the 18z GFDL.The dark blue line is the GFDL.

[gatorcane]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24

Graphic of the 18z GFDL.The dark blue line is the GFDL.

That is a horrible scenario for Palm Beach/Dade/Broward.

If that verifies the damage will surpass Andrew by far.

[cjrciadt]

Very interesting final visible shot.

[truballer#1]

more gray is starting to show up now around center