Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[canetracker]

Finally! The WNW wobble I was looking for all day! If this trends it will be a totally different story.

Meaning??

[Sanibel]

If it trends WNW it will only clip Honduras. I think it will still go over the mountains like they say, but you have to watch every wobble at this juncture with a strong hurricane headed towards people.

[RL3AO]

It is too late. It did wobble when that convection redeveloped, but I expect it to turn due west again shortly. It is still 1.5 degrees from clearing Honduras.

[Sanibel]

You never know. The long west track could be a long wobble followed by a long WNW correction. I'm not saying this WILL happen, but hurricanes are notoriously tricky.

[canetracker]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=
Steering charts could explain the WNW wobble, but according to the chart, it still looks like Honduras may not be in the clear yet.

[Derek Ortt]

and the slowdown may have started... only moved .7W in the past 3 hours

[RL3AO]

It seems like the wobble happened as soon as that red ring on the AVN developed. Coincidence?

[bigGbear]

It is too late. It did wobble when that convection redeveloped, but I expect it to turn due west again shortly. It is still 1.5 degrees from clearing Honduras.

2345 image would seem to show it was not a long-term wobble

[wxmann_91]

It is too late. It did wobble when that convection redeveloped, but I expect it to turn due west again shortly. It is still 1.5 degrees from clearing Honduras.

2345 image would seem to show it was not a long-term wobble

Trochoidal oscillations are beginning...

We need microwave and/or recon data to confirm if this is indeed an ERC that is beginning.

[JonathanBelles]

Trochoidal oscillations are beginning...

We need microwave and/or recon data to confirm if this is indeed an ERC that is beginning.

Who?

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Black IR in the north band!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Black IR in the north band!

Further intensification?

[cheezyWXguy]

Black IR in the north band!

That will likely rotate into the core, and put on an impressive red donut core, possibly similar to yesterday, but with a worse eye structure. If convection does come back into a donut shape again, id expect 145-150mph at landfall. Only a chance still at this point, since structure fluctuations are impossible to predict. But if the eye clears out fully like last night...felix could take another shot at cat 5...however that is not likely right now

[Frank P]

Black IR in the north band!

Looks like the last frame it took a wobble back due west.....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

looking more impressive on the sat pix

[HURAKAN]

I liked ol' WU graphics!

[wxmann_91]

Trochoidal oscillations are beginning...

We need microwave and/or recon data to confirm if this is indeed an ERC that is beginning.

Who?

Don't know how to really define it, but basically the eye and associated inner eyewall rotates and spins within a larger gyre (such as an outer eyewall). Brownsville, TX radar depicted this very well when Hurricane Emily was making final landfall in 2005; Wilma also had very pronounced trochoidal oscillations when it bombed out.

EDIT (since this thread's so dead): Nice ring of strong convection in IR now. It's got only 12 hr so there almost no chance of reintensification to a Cat 5, but I think it could intensify to a (legit) Cat 4.

[theworld]

Felix is sitting right on top of the warm eddy.

[cheezyWXguy]

I can see this coming back to 150mph very soon...already looks close to 140-145mph. The donut shaped core has reformed and the eye may soon begin to widen to where the red is, instead of having a thick green circle around the eye. This storm is showing obvious signs of intensification and id be shocked if it werent at 140mph or higher at 11pm

[Smurfwicked]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=1

is it just or is loop showing felix moving in the direction of the northern most projected path?