Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[HURAKAN]

Agreeing with Chacor, Nargis is looking much better. Eye could be coming back.

[HURAKAN]

Picking up speed and organizing.

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

The eye is back!!

[zaqxsw75050]

[Cyclenall]

Now it looks like 95 knots with the small eye.

[ugaap]

Nargis has strengthened to 75 knots & 967 mb. at 15.8N & 89.8E

[Chacor]

Remember: The JTWC isn't official. It's wrong to say it's strengthened to 75 kts and 967 mbar when the official 03z warning had it at 65 kts 980 mbar.

[Pedro Fernández]

Remember: The JTWC isn't official. It's wrong to say it's strengthened to 75 kts and 967 mbar when the official 03z warning had it at 65 kts 980 mbar.

Moreover, NARGIS seems worse than before at the sallite images... Looking at the last ones showed in the NRL website.

In the other hand, check out this HIRE image, from TERRA satellite, MODIS sensor. I have adjusted a little some values of it, to remark cloud tops:

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (NARGIS) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 89.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 89.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.3N 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.8N 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.5N 94.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.5N 96.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 90.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (NARGIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
WEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 01B IS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
STORM. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01B WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU
12 DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE
STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 36 AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL STORM BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

01/0830 UTC 15.9N 90.1E T5.0/5.0 NARGIS -- Bay of Bengal

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

BOB 01/2008/30 Dated: 01 May, 2008

Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over westcentral and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal.

The very severe cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over westcentral and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal moved eastwards and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 1st May, 2008 over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal near lat. 15.5º N and long. 89.0º E, about 650 km southwest of Sandoway (Myanmar). The system is likely to intensify further and move in a east-northeasterly direction and cross Myanmar coast between 16º and 18º North around night of tomorrow, the 2nd May, 2008.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph is likely over Andaman Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough around Andaman Islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

RSMC- TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPCAL STORM “NARGIS” ADVISORY NO. TWENTYSIX ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 1 MAY 2008 BASED ON 0300 UTC CHARTS OF 1 MAY 2008.

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “NARGIS” OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED EASTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 1 MAY 2008 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 15.50 N AND LONG 89.00 E, ABOUT 650 KM SOUTHWEST OF SANDOWAY (48080). CURRENT INTENSITY IS T4.0 RPT T4.0 . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 65 KTS. SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BETWEEN LATITUDE 12.00 TO 18.50 NORTH AND LONG 86.00 TO 91.00 EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN 160 AND 180 NORTH AROUND NIGHT OF TOMORROW,THE 2ND MAY 2008. FORECAST INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC IS T4.5 RPT T4.5 .

[HURAKAN]

Nargis Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat1.html





Looking really nice.

[Chacor]

JTWC fix:

523
TPIO10 PGTW 011209

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (NARGIS)

B. 01/1130Z

C. 15.8N

D. 90.6E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (01/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR

05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 12NM WHITE EYE SURR BY CMG GRAY
SHADE YIELDS A 5.5 DT WITH 1.0 SUBTRACTED FOR EYE
ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

SCANLIN

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 90 kts

[Chacor]

BOB 01/2008/32 TIME OF ISSUE 1630HRS IST Dated: 01 May, 2008


Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal.

The very severe cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over eastcentral and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal moved eastwards and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today, the 1st May, 2008 over eastcentral and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal near lat. 16.0º N and long. 90.0º E, about 550 km southwest of Sandoway (Myanmar). The system is likely to intensify further and move in a east-northeasterly direction and cross Myanmar coast around 17º North by night of tomorrow, the 2nd May, 2008.


Under its influence, rain/thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.


Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph is likely over Andaman Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough around Andaman Islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneRobert]

Nice image from NASA: