Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

[Nederlander]

Looks like that wave over the islands had a little flare-up in convection.. Watched JB's video and he takes it to the TX/LA Coast.. Looks to me like theres just too much in its way to really develop a low pressure center...


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[KatDaddy]

LOL! Awesome Cyclone1

[KatDaddy]

Kidding aside. We just need a day or two of moderate to heavy rain for Texas. Its has been a very dry year.

[ROCK]

:uarrow: Yeah buddy
Looks like an ULL developing over Haiti, maybe that and land interaction will keep this wave from developing?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

this wave is getting squeezed by the small ULL above it and the one over Haiti....that said until something gives, its not going to do much.....looks like a sheared mess with no hint of cyclonic turning attm....

[srainhoutx]

Tell's how dry it been when new planted foilage Post Ike is dying or dead. Central/South TX in an unbelievable drought. Some benificial rains would help dramatically help, But no flooding please.

[Kludge]

Though the meteorological analogs are not that stong... my gut feel (for what that's worth) of the 1983 season are pretty concerning.

Here we are in mid August without an 'A' storm as yet. Back then, everyone was saying it would be a slow year (much like today).

Then came Alicia. She kicked butt in Houston, and got her name retired. But still, not a remarkable year otherwise; only 4 named storms total.

Nonetheless, folks like me along the western gulf coast are leary of the similarities thus-far from that season. I'm curious as to if any of you have researched how '09 is substantially different from '83 in the overall pattern.

[Sanibel]

Looks better than TD2 right now:

[Aquawind]

Exactly..just imagine how much talk would be it the UL winds were favorable for this.. then again according to some models evidently they are going to be changing..amazing how things change in 48 hours and the models all of a sudden come into some agreement within a realistic time frame vs 144 hours.. Clearly the Season has flipped the switch and we are going to be watching something serious next week.

[Sanibel]

I agree with the switch being flipped. It was muggy here tonight. Noticeably. I think the Gulf is ripe. 87* at 11pm.

[MGC]

The blowup in convection is being caused by the wave interacting with the ULL.....MGC

[ROCK]

The blowup in convection is being caused by the wave interacting with the ULL.....MGC

yes the small one to the north. the bigger one to its west looks to be creating shear. Either way this has no model support as it did somewhat earlier today.....the 0z GFS shows a wave into the central gulf coast...lots of rain for FL....

[cpdaman]

The blowup in convection is being caused by the wave interacting with the ULL.....MGC

yes the small one to the north. the bigger one to its west looks to be creating shear. Either way this has no model support as it did somewhat earlier today.....the 0z GFS shows a wave into the central gulf coast...lots of rain for FL....

i generally agree with both these statements

anyway looking at the wave and going ..umm lots of convection .....should be followed by it's just a tropical wave interacting with a ULL.......and as rock said 1 big one to the W and one smaller one moving in lockstep to the north..... not seeing much hope till it nears FL straits at least.....however the wave axis i think is further east ...just to the east of puerto rico and the convection SE of puerto rico seems decent ....and perhaps not as much caused by the ULL's as the other flare up north of hispanola is

[attallaman]

Will the system if it develops possibly pose a threat to my area at some point, the Mississippi Gulf Coast? Could this turn into something or end up being just a huge rain event?

[Brent]

Looks better than TD2 right now:

To be fair, anything looks better than TD 2 right now.

But this area has caught my eye, I wouldn't be surprised to see some slow development out of it(or maybe nothing at all).

[Steve H.]

Yes, the area of convection east of the Turks and Caicos could get interesting down the road for South Fl or the GOM and Points west. It seems to be in a cull and there isn't to much shear there. ULL is providing some outflow. Something closer to home to watch. BTW, I wouldn't write off TD #2 YET. Still has a good circulation if it can hold on til the western Atlantic.

[srainhoutx]

Yes, the area of convection east of the Turks and Caicos could get interesting down the road for South Fl or the GOM and Points west. It seems to be in a cull and there isn't to much shear there. ULL is providing some outflow. Something closer to home to watch. BTW, I wouldn't write off TD #2 YET. Still has a good circulation if it can hold on til the western Atlantic.

Guidance does suggest that the wave will continue W into the GOM and brings TD 2 through the FL Straits as well. We shall see.

[Stormcenter]

What guidance suggests TD#2 is going through the Fl. straits?

Yes, the area of convection east of the Turks and Caicos could get interesting down the road for South Fl or the GOM and Points west. It seems to be in a cull and there isn't to much shear there. ULL is providing some outflow. Something closer to home to watch. BTW, I wouldn't write off TD #2 YET. Still has a good circulation if it can hold on til the western Atlantic.

Guidance does suggest that the wave will continue W into the GOM and brings TD 2 through the FL Straits as well. We shall see.

[HouTXmetro]

TD2 has a robust circulation despite the lack of convection. I would not count it out.

[ROCK]

What guidance suggests TD#2 is going through the Fl. straits?

Yes, the area of convection east of the Turks and Caicos could get interesting down the road for South Fl or the GOM and Points west. It seems to be in a cull and there isn't to much shear there. ULL is providing some outflow. Something closer to home to watch. BTW, I wouldn't write off TD #2 YET. Still has a good circulation if it can hold on til the western Atlantic.

Guidance does suggest that the wave will continue W into the GOM and brings TD 2 through the FL Straits as well. We shall see.

the latest model runs....they may not have it as TD2 when it comes through the straits but its there is some form....

[Ptarmigan]

Kidding aside. We just need a day or two of moderate to heavy rain for Texas. Its has been a very dry year.

Tell me about! We need rain! Away with the cockroach ridge!