BOC system

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian

[Wx_Warrior]

3 frames from 0z EURO





poof

[Ivanhater]

Steering for this system is pretty straight forward..looks like the euro starts the cape verde season this run as well...night all!

[KWT]

This does have a small chance I feel, esp in the BoC though I doubt anything develops before then to be honest. The models do all seem to show some weak closed low present, but at least this time its fairly obvious where its going. Probably a far south Mexico threat, so may not have a huge amount of time over water in the BoC, but it maybe enough for a depression/weak storm.

Looks like the wave has reached the area, if it doesn't get far enough north from now on, it'll probably be an EPAC system.

[wxman57]

The feature that some of the models (Canadian) appear to be developing is not in the SW Caribbean, it's in the central Tropical Atlantic. The Canadian just doesn't develop anything until it gets to the SW Caribbean. It's an area to watch for possible development as tropical waves move in from the east, certainly.

[KWT]

Its quite a messy set-up, the 0z ECM tries to develop the wave that is just coming towards the SW Caribbean now, doesn't quite make it then the wave currently heading into the E.Caribbean then develops behind it and manages to just about close off.

I do hate these messy set-ups!

ps, you sure Wxman57, because I followed the low level Vorticity and traced back down to the C.Caribbean just north of SA, its very weak on the CMC but then drifts WNW and slowly strengthens once its in the NW Caribbean. The C.Atlantic wave stays stable till E.Caribbean then decays about 72-84hrs time.

[wxman57]

You can track the system on the Canadian here. It's around 35-40W on the 12hr panel, the eastern Caribbean on the 96hr panel, the SW Gulf on the 168hr panel and nearing NE Mexico at 180hrs.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... cloop.html

[KWT]

Ah ok yeah I see it now, but the CMC does come rather close to developing another region from the SW that ends up in the BoC around 120-144hrs, and interestingly the ECM does develop that region briefly in the SW Caribbean in about 72-96hrs time. The GFS also keys in on this region from the looks of things.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_096m.gif

Looks to me like there is two seperate areas that could end up having a shot, the wave you mention is one to watch 6-9 days down the line whilst there is another wave that is heading towards the convection in the next day or so.

I'd suspect the central Atlantic wave would have a better chance of developing down the line, bnut as I said I hate these messy set-ups. Could see something similar to Alex and TD2, but this time round the 2nd wave develops more than the first...

[Ivanhater]

06z Para GFS

[Weatherfreak000]

You can clearly see the players in this surface analysis. The low has been assessed exactly in the position the models foresaw, the tropical wave at 67W is moving along.



I am highly impressed so far, everything is set up to validate the model solutions who foresaw development this way. In my opinion the odds have perhaps sneakily increased somewhat maybe to 15% overnight as convection has persisted to concentrate in the area of the low pressure. Remember also like the pro mets always say im also implying this system has a 85% chance of NOT developing in the next 48 hours.


Here is a bit considering the tropical wave, taken from the TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W S OF 16N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA. BUOY 42059
LOCATED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS REPORTING E WINDS OF 10-15
KT.

The interaction between these two areas (by now the tropical wave has probably made it to nearly 70W) is pretty close to maturation now.

[Ivanhater]

Spin becoming evident

[Ivanhater]

Nice little morning thunderstorm in Pensacola and Gulf coast now...

12z Nam back at it

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

Good ole NAM, does love to ramp up the storms, its probably even worse then the CMC for that I think!

Still I do agree there is enough to this to at least require some watching though I'd be very surprised if anything got going this side of CA/Yucatan region. Still we will see how this all evolves in the next few days, if convection holds down there we could see an invest tomorrow due to some of the models developing this region.

[cycloneye]

Below is Dr Jeff Masters take on future tropical developments. I think he doesn't consider the NAM as a reliable model.

The tropics are quiet
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. There is an area of disturbed weather off the coast of Costa Rica that is generating some heavy thunderstorm activity over the extreme Southwest Caribbean. This disturbance should move westward over Nicaragua and Honduras over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to Central America. NHC is giving this disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

[KWT]

I'm not sure thats really true though what Jeff does, quite a few models do develop a weak closed low from this region, granted most probably aren't above 25-30kts but there will be something to watch if the models are right.

Wonder what the 12z GFS does with this...

[Ivanhater]

12z Para GFS still develops it just further south..also it does look to originate from the Central Caribbean wave Wxman57 alluded to. (Looks to merge with the SW Caribbean low)

[KWT]

The GFS does indeed appear to merge with a wave but it doesn't seem to be the C.Atlantic wave, if you trace the precip region back on that chart you can see it comes from the wave that is presently over C/E.Caribbean Sea...THe SW gyre just sort of sits there whilst the wave comes along in the next 36-48hrs and adds some juice.

[Ivanhater]

The GFS does indeed appear to merge with a wave but it doesn't seem to be the C.Atlantic wave, if you trace the precip region back on that chart you can see it comes from the wave that is presently over C/E.Caribbean Sea...THe SW gyre just sort of sits there whilst the wave comes along in the next 36-48hrs and adds some juice.

That's what I said

[KWT]

Sorry my bad Ivanhater!

Its just Wxman57 said the wave at 35-40W was the one the CMC developing, its two different waves the models appear to be developing at the moment, tats why I thought you meant the C.atl wave!

The fact the models are homing in on different areas suggests we will have more favourable conditions aloft but there is quite alot of uncertainty involved with how this one evolves.