ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Extreme. That is the most interesting thing from tonight. Both the Op and Para develop this in JUST 48 hours. The Operational never really cared for this before (shocking )

Development chances ticked up like wxman57 alluded to.

[Ivanhater]

00z Nogaps jumps on board...models seeing something tonight

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian
Se Florida



Waiting for the rest to come out

[Ivanhater]

Then to Pensacola

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps into Mississippi

[xcool22]

MODELS HAVE NO CLUE RIGHT NOW WHERE GO AT ...IMO

[LaBreeze]

How much confidence is out there that this ridge is going to break down? Any belief that the ridge will hold its strength and position? Thoughts ~~

[ROCK]

now we wait for the almighty EURO.....

[Vortex]

looks like we certainly have model support now for at least a TS approaching SFL/Florida straits in 3.5/4 days...

[blp]

Ivanhater it is interesting to see that consensus is growing tonight with the models. Most surprising is the GFS which has been very conservative this year on development. If the EURO shows something then its on. Tomorrow will be an interesting day.

[Macrocane]

So we have both GFS's, NOGAPS and CMC on board, that means that the chances of development are increasing, let's wait for the Euro if it shows development I would say that it's almost sure that it is going to happen .

[ROCK]

worst case scenario really for the oil areas...if there is still some out that at the surface....would push this muck up inland....

[Ivanhater]

Hopefully the HWRF and GFDL run tonight

[blp]

now we wait for the almighty EURO.....

You are so right.... hands down the model that everyone looks to now for the final word on development. Amazing how good the EURO has been and funny how it used to be that the GFS was mighty one years back, how things change.

[Weatherfreak000]

The models are actually very tightly clustered in the Central Gulf region...I fail to see how model uncertainty is the issue when in reality, the models are getting a much better picture of the situation and more reliable.

Not saying this far out anything is guaranteed but there is no evidence to support a Mexico to Florida spread, imo.

Edit: If the model's are right on the general 48to 72 hour track, the CMC was hands down the best here.

I believe the CMC is better than the EURO thus far this year.

[ROCK]

The models are actually very tightly clustered in the Central Gulf region...I fail to see how model uncertainty is the issue when in reality, the models are getting a much better picture of the situation and more reliable.

Not saying this far out anything is guaranteed but there is no evidence to support a Mexico to Florida spread, imo.

Edit: If the model's are right on the general 48to 72 hour track, the CMC was hands down the best here.

I believe the CMC is better than the EURO thus far this year.

5-6 days out, no center in which to initialize on and your saying the models are tightly clustered? and they are becoming more reliable....I fail to see the logic there....I will take a MX to FL spread this far out..IMO....

[Ivanhater]

Canadian

[ROCK]

little more east on this run than prior.....all about timing...it could very well go up the EC of FL and get pushed back into FL from the east...

[Ivanhater]

GFS ENSEMBLE takes it into the Gulf

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry but we don't even have an organized system so how can any model be
reliable this far out? IMO right now 97L (if it were to develop) can go anywhere from
Mexico all the way to the East coast. It's not like we haven't seen the models change their tunes
in the past this far out.

The models are actually very tightly clustered in the Central Gulf region...I fail to see how model uncertainty is the issue when in reality, the models are getting a much better picture of the situation and more reliable.

Not saying this far out anything is guaranteed but there is no evidence to support a Mexico to Florida spread, imo.

Edit: If the model's are right on the general 48to 72 hour track, the CMC was hands down the best here.

I believe the CMC is better than the EURO thus far this year.