ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[MiamiHurricanes10]

80% it is.

[Brent]

Well that post was right.

Wow 80%

[KWT]

Yeah that probably makes sense that they are getting quite keen, but I do think they may wait till first thing tomorrow and Dmax to occur...but its almost certainly very close to being a depression if not already.

The track once it finally lifts out of the ITCZ will give a very good indication as to how strong the ridge is for now...but I'm certainly not buying the HWRF solution.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Wow.

80%.

I will have MY 2PM forecast out ASAP.

[Ivanhater]

Wow

IF THIS CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES ON
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

[Recurve]

Snip from TWO posted by Ivanhater

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING.
IF THIS CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES ON
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

OK, well that makes sense. At least we won't have to spin-watch for the next three days. I like this forming sooner rather than later.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah that probably makes sense that they are getting quite keen, but I do think they may wait till first thing tomorrow and Dmax to occur...but its almost certainly very close to being a depression if not already.

The track once it finally lifts out of the ITCZ will give a very good indication as to how strong the ridge is for now...but I'm certainly not buying the HWRF solution.

yeah I figured it would be 70 or 80 percent.. It has a closed wind field for sure so its technically a TD by definition..

[xcool22]

According to the hpc and nhc coordination call, they are putting it in the southern Bahamas by day 7.

by Billabong13138

[JTD]

Wow at the TWO.

Good scoop there that some other posters had.

[curtadams]

It's not that close to TD, because to be a TD it has to be free of the ITCZ. It's starting to break the ITCZ behind it, but it's normally about a day from breaking the ITCZ behind that it breaks the ITCZ in front and earns a cyclone designation. It is progressing amazingly quickly for a large low in the ITCZ and I can see why the NHC is so bullish in the 48 hour period.

[Aquawind]

Yes..Let's get this thing ahead of schedule and fishy..I would think they make the call before the last visible or wait until morning visible as well.

[KWT]

Yeah if the NHC are putting near the Bahamas that'd make a lot of sense given the models, its certainly the solution I'd have to agree upon...BUT I think this system maybe a little slow moving at times still so may be a touch further east if only because its taking a touch longer...but we shall see...

I think now we have a developing system, its time to have another look at what storms developed close to where 91L is...

Curtadams, that didn't stop Hurricane Ivan blowing up as far south as it did...

[Aric Dunn]

It's not that close to TD, because to be a TD it has to be free of the ITCZ. It's starting to break the ITCZ behind it, but it's normally about a day from breaking the ITCZ behind that it breaks the ITCZ in front and earns a cyclone designation. It is progressing amazingly quickly for a large low in the ITCZ and I can see why the NHC is so bullish in the 48 hour period.

yes true.. but the ITCZ is not intact anymore there are a couple boundries remaining but they have begun to rotate in... The NHC is saying its nearly a TD as well so...

[Vortmax1]

Wowie!
They're ready to go on this one.

[MGC]

No rush to upgrade as the system is far away from land. Usually, the NHC waits for rock solid evidence that there is in fact a TD before pulling the trigger when recon is not available. I imagine they will use visable loops so once it gets dark out there they will likely wait till some visable is available tomorrow morning.....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

According to the hpc and nhc coordination call, they are putting it in the southern Bahamas by day 7.

by Billabong13138

7 days !! thats really fast..

[xcool22]

Aric Dunn.yea way too fast

[KWT]

Yeah Aric, it goes along with the models solution...but I just can't see it moving that fast myself, going to have to really steam along to get there at that point.

That maybe a bad thing as well, because the trough that is meant to lift it up somewhat occurs mainly between 120-168hrs, if the system is slower and a touch more to the south, the lift won't be quite so strong and it'll have a bigger risk for Florida and even the Caribbean.

Way too early as you've said to make those sorts of calls, just about anything is possible really...

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection on the wane....this may need one more D-Max to really start to get going...NHC may go ahead and pull the trigger tonight, shear being the way it is in that area i'd be shocking to see this thing dissipate now.

Vorticity maps show it hasn't gotten really any deeper but that was 2 hours ago and much recently on visible the circulation has gotten much better defined.


TD at 8.

[ConvergenceZone]

According to the hpc and nhc coordination call, they are putting it in the southern Bahamas by day 7.

by Billabong13138

7 days !! thats really fast..

Yes, this must be expected to move really quick then. That's good news as far as development is concerned, becuase from the way I've always understood it, quicker moving systems have a more difficult time with organizing and stregthening.