Wave East of the Windward Islands

[Blown Away]

It's left over flareups from D-MAX, which occurs in the early morning hours. The flareups began in the early morning hours.

Maybe hurricaneCW, but it has been slowly building convection over the past few hours so there maybe more going on than left over D-max. There is some slight turning, the NHC may bump this area up to 20% at 2pm if convection persists??

[canes101]

D-Max occurs before sunrise.. and this flare up was not there then.. This has occured more recently.. Not saying that means its developing in any way.. Just saying...

[Weatherfreak000]

Looking awesome today. Invest soon approaching.

[hurricaneCW]

Well it is flaring up more severely and it does have a nice spin to it. I assume the NHC will upgrade the chances to 20% this afternoon. Still, it's nothing to write home about. I'm not sure if the environment is favorable for too much organization.

[canes101]

I do agree hurCW not much going on now, just another to keep an eye on

[BigA]

Looks to me like if it can stay south of 17 north for a while, the environment will stay fairly favorable. If it goes to the TUTT graveyard north of the islands, my bet is on a cruel demise.

[Blown Away]

[/URL]

Convection has definitely been building today and I see a slow WNW motion. IMO, 20% at 2pm.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like a better bet for an invest than many we've seen lately.

[cycloneye]

Nothing new.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/WALTON

[Boriken]

To me looks like a NW or even a NNW, probably miss the Caribbean and direct to the shear environment. I could be wrong.

[hurricaneCW]

The NHC doesn't have a lot of confidence in this system, which is probably for the best. Every system has failed to become anything.

[Aric Dunn]

it looks a little better this afternoon and still has time to organize..

[TwisterFanatic]

The NHC doesn't have a lot of confidence in this system, which is probably for the best. Every system has failed to become anything.

No offense, but you post things like this ALL the time.

[hurricaneCW]

The NHC doesn't have a lot of confidence in this system, which is probably for the best. Every system has failed to become anything.

No offense, but you post things like this ALL the time.

I wish I didn't have to, but that's the reality of how this season has been up to this point.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I would agree this season has been a little wacked. It has not been slow by the number of names storms so far. The conditons over all seemed like they were primed to go through the roof. But have not, but I have been watching this little wave sliding west for days now. It does have a spin and convection has been building nicely all day. If the convection holds it may just surprise a few on this board.

[Blown Away]

On the visible you can clearly see broad turning and convection has been consolidating all day. Convection looks better than TD5 and 93L IMO. Looks like it is moving NW towards the NE Caribbean. Many storms have started in this area.

[KWT]

Probably will track into the shear zone in the next few days but for now conditions are good enough to at least warrent a possible invest...but once again low level vort is terrible...seems to be a real struggle this year in that respect.

[hurricaneCW]

This hurricane season is starting to remind me of a mid-Atlantic winter. In order for us to get all snow, everything has to set up perfectly (last winter being the exception). The only way we'll get a hurricane is if everything is perfect, which is almost impossible in any hurricane season.

[CourierPR]

This hurricane season is starting to remind me of a mid-Atlantic winter. In order for us to get all snow, everything has to set up perfectly (last winter being the exception). The only way we'll get a hurricane is if everything is perfect, which is almost impossible in any hurricane season.

This thread is for discussion of the wave east of the Windward Islands. Discussion of the season so far belongs in another thread.

[Florida1118]

This hurricane season is starting to remind me of a mid-Atlantic winter. In order for us to get all snow, everything has to set up perfectly (last winter being the exception). The only way we'll get a hurricane is if everything is perfect, which is almost impossible in any hurricane season.

no offence to you, but you really seem to hate every single system that has formed so far and really make the mood sad feeling.