ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,lets not make this important thread about any individual member please and lets concentrate on the system in hand that this thread has.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Agreed MiamiHurricanes10, this will probably end up being rather similar to Colin IMO, maybe a little longer lasting then that one first time round but the same general synoptics are still very much in play.

Indeed. Likely will last longer and be stronger. The current motion towards the NW it has acquired will likely only last for a little bit before making a subtle turn towards the WNW and W as it meets the subtropical ridge. I expect a recurvature near 60W, well east of Bermuda. 93L will likely end up as an ACE contributor. Would be nice to get a hurricane out of this as long as it does not affect anyone.

[hurricaneCW]

Is it wrong to cheerlead a storm to die off and not get named because it is not a storm you picked to be the big one??? Booooooo on 60%!!! Looks like garbage on Water Vapor. Go SAL go!!!!

I picked Danielle to be the big one, so I kind of hope this one will die off. Hopefully, it becomes nothing more than a TD. The fact that it's so far north increases the odds of it being impacted by the SAL and dry, stable air. However, it does look good structurally, so I wouldn't be shocked if we see a TD as early as tomorrow.

[Gustywind]

Ok folks,lets not make this important thread about any individual member please and lets concentrate on the system in hand that this thread has.

Well said Luis

[CrazyC83]

For all we know, this could easily go into RI out there then dip southwest like Ike did...that is what the upper-level steering currents suggest...but back to reality, this seems to have fish on it, just in a somewhat less hostile environment than Colin.

[MGC]

Would not be surprised if 93L is upgraded sometime Sunday. Looking good....lots of spin noted on the sat loop.....MGC

[KWT]

Worth noting the models have just nailed the region this system will develop, it gives alot of confidence to the general track idea, see no idea to go against it...

Interesting the models do weaken it further west so may well be like Colin in that it makes it to TS strength but doesn't get too far into that range before it weakens.

[Frank2]

Fairly well organized but lots of dry air, too, so perhaps a well-organized swirl if nothing else as it heads toward the North Atlantic...

[TexasF6]

Fairly well organized but lots of dry air, too, so perhaps a well-organized swirl if nothing else as it heads toward the North Atlantic...

It does have a huge circulation as seen on the visible, but its going in a hostile direction....

[Gustywind]

Not sure given the lates TWD from the NHC...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 071745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 38W
FROM 13N TO 23N AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS
LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N38W. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE E
ATLANTIC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH VALUES
STRETCHING FROM THE THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND
42W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE HIGH FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB

[Gustywind]

60% Code Red

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[CrazyC83]

Shear is supposed to stay low ahead of it though according to the models thread. If it can hold off the dry air, it should become more intense.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

Closed circulation there? It almost looks like one.

[Frank2]

Wow - already north of 20 - interesting that nothing has been mentioned (at least not on this site or on TWC) about the mid-Atlantic weakness that has developed over the past week or so, since the disturbance behind 93L already seems to be tending to move WNW, so apparently a considerable weakness has developed that far east, but perhaps not related to the weakness west of 60...

Frank

[Weatherfreak000]

Growing steadily more organized with every frame, and this area has model consensus working for it. Your not gonna find many people willing to put their necks on the line to downcast this invest

Water Vapor imagery suggests the moisture envelope surrounding this area should bully the dry air and let this form. All signs are go.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Before classification first and foremost we need a scatterometer pass showing evidence of a well-defined closed low, if not, we need hard-core evidence of a well-defined closed low on visible satellite imagery. After that we need TAFB and SAB to give this feature at least a dvorak number of T1.5. If both those things are accomplished, we should get tropical depression #5. At the current rate of organization I reckon we will have 05L before Monday.

[KWT]

Wow - already north of 20 - interesting that nothing has been mentioned (at least not on this site or on TWC) about the mid-Atlantic weakness that has developed over the past week or so, since the disturbance behind 93L already seems to be tending to move WNW, so apparently a considerable weakness has developed that far east, but perhaps not related to the weakness west of 60...

Frank

Its not really any weakness that is casuing that to happen but just the fact that the Vort has established itself very far north this time round. The GFS has done a good job with this.

Im not saying there isn't a weakness there, but the models have been showing the Vort setting up here without any interaction with any weakness for a long time now, I think its because another Vort that came off Africa just after 93L effectivly slingshotted itself around any weak development that was present in the ITCZ...this is the *true* 93L I suppose.

Lets make the most of this as the GFS is showing that door closing again by the 20th in a major way just as the CV region really ramps up.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[MiamiHurricanes10]

18z ATCF Best Track on 93L.

AL, 93, 2010080718, , BEST, 0, 198N, 398W, 25, 1011, DB,