Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

[Ivanhater]

324..develops once again. Flip flopping on position like normal. Ridge is displaced

[South Texas Storms]

well what do you know...another mexico hit. ouch for them if this verifies

[Ivanhater]

well what do you know...another mexico hit. ouch for them if this verifies

Lol, we are going to see almost every place on the map see a hit from this over the next few days. Almost a guarantee.

[South Texas Storms]

haha yeah i know its lala land.
but if they get hit by this and karl and alex and hermine...thats a very bad season for them. big if though.

[Vortex]

IMO, I think this will develop but the million dollar question as usual will be the pattern....During summer this would be a relatively easy call but late september the flipping back and forth will continue until we get a better idea of the set-up....it sure looks like we will have a storm in the western carribean late next week....

[South Texas Storms]

yeah i think beginning with this storm we will start to see the activity moving towards the caribbean and gom for the remainder of the season.

[Ivanhater]

Notice the 500mb chart this run. Consistent troughing over the Central U.S continually knocking the ridge back. Definitely going to see a lot of flopping.

[South Texas Storms]

ivan you think this one has the best chance of a u.s. landfall so far this season?

[Ivanhater]

ivan you think this one has the best chance of a u.s. landfall so far this season?

If it develops..yes. Mainly because it waits to develop until the Caribbean.

[Vortex]

Btw, the GFS has been on this since last friday evening's 00z run....I'd be very surprised if this doesn't come to pass...We should see the other globals on it in the days to come...

[Ivanhater]

Btw, the GFS has been on this since last friday evening's 00z run....I'd be very surprised if this doesn't come to pass...We should see the other globals on it in the days to come...

Euro already showing the low as well.

[KWT]

This is a rather tougher then normal forecast long range, because the mean pattern for just about the whole of the last 50 days or so is a SE ridge, weakness out at 70-55W and another smaller weakness maybe down at 90W and another ridge just to the west of that at around 95W...though both the latter features are not strong signals.

However we are now getting to the timeframe when upper troughs become stronger and stronger and more able to shift systems northwards in smaller amounts of time.

My gut is its still a little too soon for that to happen and thus it'll broadly stick to the Alex/Karl type route that has been long established...but thats really a low confidence call to be honest!

[ROCK]

No one posted the 12z Euro while I was in class?

Not a phantom cane on the GFS. The Euro has the same low beginning to organize in the Western Caribbean at 240 hours.

let me guess PE class or basket weaving?

[Vortex]

18Z HWRF shows carribean storm nicely



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

You're funny Rock Actually my Elections 2010 class and International Law

Vortex, the HWRF is using the GFS for the outer grid, so it will show what the GFS develops. Still, seeing the Euro show the same low and the GFS's consistency is indicative of an actual system being portrayed, not a phantom storm,

[Vortex]

18Z GFDL also picks it up just east of barbados...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

Last nights long range canadian also shows it...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal192.gif

[Ivanhater]

The GFS, Canadian and Euro Ensembles all support a system in the NW Caribbean indicated by the low pressure. Remember, the Ensemble mean is not indicative of strength as it is a blend of many individual members.

Canadian Ensemble mean
00z


12z



Euro Ensemble mean



12z GFS Ensemble mean

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Weatherfreak000]

Man...as far as short-term development how can you even fit another storm on the map right now? Julia needs to lift up north it seems...