EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants

[KWT]

Shouldn't be long before we get a hurricane with this system from the looks of things and the wording from the NHC.

[Extratropical94]

[cycloneye]

Thanks to both 94 and Supercane for the good work. Tommorow's mission departs around 9:15 AM EDT.

[brunota2003]

Well, I was off in the timing. Land interfered with Beatriz too much and prevented it from rapidly strengthening...thankfully for those in the impacted areas! The area to the NE never fully closed off (land interference)...had the system been another 200 or 300 miles off the coast, though, we would probably be looking at a hurricane in the upper Cat 1/low 2 range right now.

In this case, bust on my prediction for RI...but I clearly stated land may be just too much for it, and I was not entirely sure it would happen. The system did increase it's winds to nearly borderline RI criteria (24 hours ago, the winds were 35 knots...now they are 60 knots, an increase of 25 knots...RI starts at an increase of 30 knots in 24 hours).

[KWT]

Yeah I think if it had been a little further to the west it probably would be a hurricane right now.

Thats a very close call for land, really wouldn't take much for a landfall there!!

[Extratropical94]

Thanks to supercane from me, too
Glad to have one creating these Google Earth images.

9:15 sounds nice, I'll be back home from school then

[MGC]

Should be a hurricane by next advisory....looks like Beatriz should pass close to Mexico so there sould be no RI with this storm.....MGC

[cycloneye]

This is news about the preparations that is a little bit old info from noon Oxaca time. It was translated to english.

Oxaca news

[KWT]

Should be a hurricane by next advisory....looks like Beatriz should pass close to Mexico so there sould be no RI with this storm.....MGC

Yep, though this should still be a fairly decent hurricane when it makes its closest approach, so needs close watching.

[cycloneye]

An eye type feature has been trying to pop up in the past couple of hours as it appears and dissapears.This loop updates.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
500 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
ONSHORE IN THE WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Stays as a tropical storm.

EP, 02, 2011062100, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1033W, 60, 989, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

Is now Hurricane Beatriz

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

...BEATRIZ BECOMES A HURRICANE...CENTER VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 103.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING VERY NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BEATRIZ IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA



HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN 360 DEGREES AROUND THE
ESTIMATED CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WARRANTS AN UPGRADE TO
HURRICANE STATUS. IF THE CENTER DOES NOT CROSS THE COAST...THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO...HOWEVER...IS FOR BEATRIZ
TO MOVE INLAND...IN WHICH CASE CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO WOULD BE LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST PRESUMES THE FORMER SCENARIO AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL SUBSTANTIALLY SO RAPID
WEAKENING IS INDICATED BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BEATRIZ HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER THIS EVENING AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THE TRACK SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE LEFT. BY DAY
4...THE WEAKENED CYCLONE WILL LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TRACKS...AND THE PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 18.0N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 18.6N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 19.5N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 20.0N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 20.2N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 20.5N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 20.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[cycloneye]

Sandy,that is the intermediate advisory 5 PM PDT track.

Edit=Ok, that is the 8 PM PDT one.

[brunota2003]

Uhhhh...is anyone watching the ADT T#s? The Final numbers (not the raw) have shot up to 4.3...72.2 knots. The weakening flag is now off, also.

EDIT: 4.4 now, or 74.6 knots...is Beatriz really that strong?

The latest:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 JUN 2011 Time : 021500 UTC
Lat : 17:53:57 N Lon : 103:26:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 976.0mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.8

Center Temp : -65.0C Cloud Region Temp : -74.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.6 degrees

[HURAKAN]

why is the forecast track not shown?

[Migle]

why is the forecast track not shown?

Not sure, but I noticed that the track for Adrian wasn't shown either. Has that been disabled for this year?

[NDG]

Too bad the radar site in that part of MX is not working. Eye is very close to the coast and the eyewall is affecting or close to affecting the coast according to the loop below.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/last24hrs-1.gif

[supercane]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210552
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

...BEATRIZ STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CENTER VERY CLOSE TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 103.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING VERY NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH... 130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BEATRIZ IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN
Eye visible on both IR and microwave: