Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

#141 Postby **somethingfunny** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:10 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Is it heading west at the end of the 12z Euro ensembles run?

Like the Texas Death Ridge would ever weaken enough to not turn a storm west. :wink:

#142 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:12 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Is it heading west at the end of the 12z Euro ensembles run?

Like the Texas Death Ridge would ever weaken enough to not turn a storm west.

Yeah unfortunately you're probably right. :cry:

All we need is one tropical system though and our drought might go poof!

#143 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:13 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Is it heading west at the end of the 12z Euro ensembles run?

The mean graphic I posted is a composite of multiple runs of the 12z Euro. It is not a distinct system headed in one direction. However, the average of the runs show many developing the wave and headed in a general westward motion toward the Florida Straits.

#144 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:16 pm

Uh oh

This kind of representation shows big development and headed toward the Gulf. I would imagine many runs included in the mean would be a hurricane.

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

pricetag56 · #145 Postby **pricetag56** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:21 pm

how many hurricanes have struck the us between now and august 1 historically speaking

#146 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:21 pm

#147 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:23 pm

So far UKMET is the strongest of all the models showing a bonifide tropical storm moving thru the NE Caribbean. This is from the predict team for PO7L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms ... _loop.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P07L.html

#148 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:27 pm

Ivanhater wrote:8-)

Yeah,I am painted. :double:

#149 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:39 pm

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 38W-45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 38W-45W.

Convection seems to be close to where a LLC might form??

#150 Postby **somethingfunny** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:45 pm

I was actually eyeballing the area down near 10N/43W on that image you painted, BlownAway. Depends how quickly it develops, I suppose. Anyone think the NHC will toss a 10% lemon on this area at 8PM?

#151 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:57 pm

somethingfunny wrote:I was actually eyeballing the area down near 10N/43W on that image you painted, BlownAway. Depends how quickly it develops, I suppose. Anyone think the NHC will toss a 10% lemon on this area at 8PM?

I'm thinking if not tonight, probably in the next few days.

#152 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 5:00 pm

we were debating between going to Universal this weekend or next. I guess we better go this weekend, in case next weekend turns into a rain event over Florida.

#153 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 5:06 pm

Looking at the 12Z Global Suite...I think this makes a run at the Gulf...Trough is deep early next week but exits quickly and ridging reloads...The weakness early next week may alow for a motion to the NW briefly possibly missing the Greater Antilles but my thinking is a bend back west and into the gulf...

#154 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 5:29 pm

Just not sure about this wave yet. I'm not sold on development seeing the current struggle with sustained convection and I don't see anything between now and to the Islands that would make much of a difference.

#155 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 5:43 pm

The latest update of the CIMSS precipitation continues to show a big precipitation envelope with this pouch.And look how the trail extends towards Africa,that will help the waves behind.

Uploaded by imageshack.us

#156 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 5:48 pm

Looking really good!

#157 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 5:59 pm

If you look at the IR, the convection is starting to build around the PO7L circle. :uarrow:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

bamajammer4eva · #158 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:03 pm

12z WRF closes it off quickly but keeps it weak. No recurve.
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

#159 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:21 pm

Uploaded by imageshack.us

#160 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:29 pm

Luis,

Looking more Like whatever becomes of this wave your in for some very squally weather late this weekend. Look forward to your reports.

Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

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Re: Wave in C Atlantic is Pouch PO7L - Develops down the road?

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