NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Rgv20]

HPC Forecast valid for Friday morning.

[thundercam96]

Looks like this run is tracking to the northern gulf coast .

If That High Pressure Is On The Eastern Seaboard It Will Prevent A Florida Landfall?

[USTropics]

Looks like this run is tracking to the northern gulf coast .

If That High Pressure Is On The Eastern Seaboard It Will Prevent A Florida Landfall?

That is correct. While the latest GFS run has backed off on the strength of the ridging, and to a degree why there is more of a northern track (coupled with the location of initialization), the ridging has been consistent in the previous model runs. The exact location of formation and how strong the ridge will be ultimately determines the track, but at this time it appears the system will be isolated to the northern or western portions of the GOM/BOC and not a threat to Florida.

[HouTXmetro]

Did GFS have a landfall? If so, where?

[crimi481]

Carlotta will transfer energy up US Mid section - causing explosive storms in mid west
Same pattern as last 2 years. Shredded storms -in/around Gulf?
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[SETXWXLADY]

Did GFS have a landfall? If so, where?

[Rgv20]

18zGFS Ensembles do not agree with the operational run of the 18zGFS.....The 0z run is going to be interesting.

18zGFS Ensembles Forecast valid for Thursday night.

[ROCK]

the 0z GFS doesnt really show anything other than a broad area of low pressure around BOC at 186hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[ROCK]

the 18Z NOGAPS was interesting takes our BOC friend further up the Texas coast....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

OZ NOGAPS on drugs again....brings the carib upi thru the channel and into Texas...then splits into 2 entities...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[South Texas Storms]

OZ NOGAPS on drugs again....brings the carib upi thru the channel and into Texas...then splits into 2 entities...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Rock it looks like the models don't have a clue right now. Hopefully King Euro will help us out a bit tonight.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS does develop a weak low in the Western GOM on Friday and bring toward the NE Mexican Coast......Of note the 0zGFS Ensembles Mean are south of the operational GFS. The reason the Euro has not develop the disturbance is that it keeps it really close to the Mexican coast and that is why it does not show more development. STS the Euro solution has a lot of Rain from about SA southward and 4+ inches for the RGV

[ROCK]

OZ NOGAPS on drugs again....brings the carib upi thru the channel and into Texas...then splits into 2 entities...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Rock it looks like the models don't have a clue right now. Hopefully King Euro will help us out a bit tonight.

yeah hope so.....starts in 3 minutes....

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah the 12z Euro was great for us Rgv. The 0z GFS made me sad though (only had .50 inch for SA). Hopefully the 0z Euro will keep us wet

[Rgv20]

Looks like the 0zECMWF tries to get a low going by Friday Evening but its to close to the Mexican Coast to get going.

[South Texas Storms]

Rgv if the 0z Euro qpf forecast verifies, I will be heartbroken. Has 2 inches about 50 miles south of SA and only .25 inch for me. You get hit pretty good though!

[Hurricane Alexis]

06z GFS continues to show an area of low pressure in the BOC in 129hr and it helping to bring lots of deep moisture to south florida


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... tImage=yes

[cycloneye]

This mornings long range discussions from NWS Coupus Christi and Houston/Galveston.

Corpus Christi

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HEIGHT
FIELDS PROG TO LOWER FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW
RETROGRADES ACROSS W GULF AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER S TX. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH PWATS PROG TO APPROACH 1.8 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA. GIVEN THE ABOVE...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES ON TUES AND WED /ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND EASTERN HALF OF CWA/. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
THEN LOWERS FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DIFFER ON HANDLING OF ANY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT MAY EMERGE FROM
BAY OF CAMPECHE. GFS CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP A SURFACE VORTEX IN THE
BAY AND MOVE IT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE H5 RIDGE...BUT
CONTINUES TO VARY RUN TO RUN WITH POSITIONING AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE SKEWED LATTER HALF OF FORECAST CLOSER TO ECMWF
WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND KEEPS MORE OF A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW GULF. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO INFILTRATE S TX SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY /AND NIGHTLY/ CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING AS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN EVENT MAY SET UP IF ECMWF VERIFIES...WHILE DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL IF SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND STAYS TO
OUR SOUTH OR EAST.

Houston/Galveston

BIG QUESTION IN LONG RANGE REMAINS POSSIBLE (LOOKING MORE LIKELY
EACH DAY THOUGH) TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE
ON THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT AT SUCH
LONG RANGE ON DETAILS. LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE IN
BOTH GFS/ECM BRINGS BANDS OF PRECIP NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST TX
COASTAL WATERS (GFS MOSTLY) AND BARELY INLAND (ECM). FOR NOW
PRUDENT PATH SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR PCPN CHANCES AND
WEATHER WITH A BIT OF A NOD TOWARD THE ECM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A
TAD MORE MODEL TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR.

[Aric Dunn]

w a t c h the south west c a rr i b e a n today.

[cycloneye]

w a t c h the south west c a rr i b e a n today.

11N-78W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html