West-Central Caribbean Tropical Cyclone (Is Invest 99L)

[Ntxw]

Pretty strong MJO wave over the area. Monsoonal trough ftw! Could have several competing areas of low pressure for formation if it remains that way. Whatever decides to form, these types of development brings higher rain impacts if anything else.

[cycloneye]

Nicole from 2010 might be a pretty good analog for what this system might look like based on the models I've seen:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _1415z.png

Or maybe Paloma of 2008? I am talking of track not intensity.

[DESTRUCTION5]

^ Michelle 01

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM 240 hours. Brings the monsoon trough north and splits the lows just like the ECMWF and GFS. Maybe this multile low scenario the GFS first started showing is not that far-fetched afterall as other models are showing this scenario now:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The models are showing this large, sprawling tropical cyclone due to the fact that they cannot correctly depict a system's intensity with such an intense MJO pulse. I've seen it happen many times in the past. When and if this system develops, expect it to be better developed than they are showing. As for track, it all comes down to timing. I don't see this moving NE right off the bat, and the models are already beginning to shift more west.

By the way...

""MJO composites, warmer-than-normal SSTs, and climatology favor tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean during week-2. The GFS model has been very consistent with tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean early in week-2. Since above-average rainfall is favored across Central America, an increased chance for a late season tropical cyclone in the east Pacific is forecast near the coastline of southern Mexico or Central America."

from: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... h_full.png

This is probably going to be our last good chance at a major hurricane for the season.

[weatherwindow]

[quote="blp"]00Z CMC similar to 00Z Euro. I do see a west trend today.
The 10/18 06 and 12Z runs of the Euro and the 06 GFS depict similiar scenarios with differences in timing. As the UL low currently over the Great Lakes pulls off to the NE, a sprawling 1022mb high, builds into the Ohio Valley on 10/21 and parks itself over the Southeast. Both models depict the associated ridging over the eastern GOM, Florida and the extreme southwestern Atlantic as building east over the open Atlantic. This ridging is forecast to persist to one degree or another thru the end of the month. This will be a key player both in the genesis and ultimately,the track of any potential system.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
While I am just reprising professional modelling, any conclusions or opinions I may come to are mine alone and not to be interpreted as official forecasts. For professional tropical forecasts contact http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://www.srh.nws.noaa.gov

[Blown Away]

Not sure if it means anything, but the Hazard map above has the area of potential development flowing towards the GOM?? Models generally move the potential threat NE?

[weatherwindow]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd
HPC extended forecast discussion
A DEEP LAYER SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD SHOULD HELP SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MONSOONAL DEPRESSION/POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY(AS SEEN ON THE NON 12Z CANADIAN GUIDANCE) DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE RIDGING TO ITS NORTH, ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES

[weatherwindow]

Not sure if it means anything, but the Hazard map above has the area of potential development flowing towards the GOM?? Models generally move the potential threat NE?

BA, I was of the same opinion however I am slowly coming around to respecting that rather impressive ridging over the eastern US that is being forecast during the last week of the month. Maybe, just maybe, I was writing off Florida and the Southeast too soon despite it being late in October.

[blp]

18z GFS still on the eastern side of the models. Hard to argue against that model considering how well it has performed this year. Still early though.

[weatherwindow]

18z GFS still on the eastern side of the models. Hard to argue against that model considering how well it has performed this year. Still early though.

Just an observation...It appears that the northeast shift in vorticity resulted in formation north of hispaniola. that in turn made it more suseptible to the weakness to its northeast. Several of the GFS runs place genesis futher west(80-81degW)which might insulate it from the weakness. Sometimes it is perplexing to see the difference 6 or 12 hours makes in a model solution:)

[jlauderdal]

looks like a very healthy easterly fetch setting up for the great state of florida..strong ridge+deep low= big winds, surfers should be very happy

[SFLcane]

Throw UK in the mix...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal120.gif

[floridasun78]

now time to see sw carribbean see we see storms forming in area now not thing yet

[blp]

The GFS is the slowest with development followed by the Euro which starts it 48 hours sooner and the CMC 72 hours sooner than the GFS. I think the GFS has the right idea considering the anticipated nature of development will be from the monsoon gyre which typically takes longer to get going and might have multiple areas of low pressure.

[Macrocane]

The set up reminds me to 2010 Nicole, with a broad monsoon gyre forming in the western Caribbean and multiple centers fighting to be the dominant one. Sure it will be an interesting system and could bring some heavy rains to Central America and the Caribbean.

[Kingarabian]

Here is a HD view of what the 00z GFS has through 186 hours for the Caribbean. Plenty of moisture:

[somethingfunny]

Wrong thread for it but that EPAC system looks really sweet on the 00z GFS. Maybe it will recurve and bring rain to those of us who miss out on the Caribbean monsoon gyre storm.

[cycloneye]

From this morning's San Juan NWS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD SFC LOW PRES WILL FORM AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP EVENTUALLY BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN GMEX. MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEXT
FRI AND MOVE INTO THE SW ATLC NEXT SAT. SRLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STORM WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO OUR AREA WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF BEING FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS BY 24 HRS. A MULTI-DAY
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SIG RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER A 2-4 DAY
PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE IT APPEARS
HISPANIOLA WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY THE DEGREE OF IMPACT OVR
PR AS BEST INFLOW WILL BE FOCUSED JUST WEST OF OUR AREA AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVR A 2-4 DAY PERIOD. FOR NOW JUST RAISED THE
SKY CVR GRIDS AS IT APPEARS DENSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM NEWD AND
REMAIN WITH US FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Here is this morning's discussion by Rob of Crownweather.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

by Rob Lightbown



All the forecast guidance continues to strongly point to the potential for some sort of tropical development next week in the western and southwestern Caribbean. This potential system is currently forecast to form between the combination of a old frontal boundary tracking across the northwestern Caribbean and some moisture & energy being injected by a westward tracking tropical wave that is now located over the eastern Caribbean just southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast guidance has some timing differences on when this possible system will spin-up into a tropical cyclone:

The GFS model forecasts right around Wednesday or Thursday just east of Jamaica with a track northeastward across eastern Cuba and Haiti and then across the southeastern Bahamas by next Friday.

The European model forecasts development as early as Tuesday in the far southwestern Caribbean with a track across Jamaica by Thursday and then across eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas by next Friday.

The Canadian model spins up this potential system even quicker by Monday morning just south of Jamaica and then forecasts this to intensify into possibly a hurricane very near Jamaica by Wednesday. From there, the Canadian model forecasts a northerly track across eastern Cuba and then across much of the Bahamas by Thursday as a hurricane.

The experimental FIM model seems to be in the middle of the GFS, European and Canadian model forecasts and shows development of a tropical system in the deep southwest Caribbean on Tuesday night. The FIM model forecasts a track that takes it just east of Jamaica on Thursday morning of next week and then across eastern Cuba and Haiti by Thursday evening. From there, the FIM model forecasts a track across the southeastern Bahamas next Friday.

So, at this point, it looks like there will be some sort of development of a tropical system in the western and southwestern Caribbean as early as Monday or as late as Wednesday or Thursday of next week. My thinking right now is for a Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe for development to the south of Jamaica near 14 or 15 North Latitude. The upper-level pattern for next week points to a north-northeast to northeast track which should keep this system away from Florida and the southeastern United States.

Those of you vacationing or living in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Bahamas should keep tabs on this possible development. At the very least, this system is likely to bring several days of heavy rainfall to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas next week into early next weekend.